PythiaFootballBETA
The contest between Cove Rangers and Airdrie United is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win at 41%. The predicted draw sits at 28% and the away side’s chances are 31%. The expected total goals hover around 2.7, and the most likely total is two goals, a 26% chance. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability.
Cove Rangers, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.86 goals scored and 0.57 conceded. Airdrie United, on the road, average 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded against similar opposition. The match’s edge lies in the home side’s defensive solidity and the away side’s weaker attack.
The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 83.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 76.9%, Under 25.5 fouls at 70.8%, Under 3.5 goals at 70.8%, and Over 2.5 cards at 70.5%. Other picks - Over 19.5 fouls, Under 11.5 corners, and Over 2.5 cards - are less likely, with probabilities of 76.2%, 72.6%, and 70.5% respectively.
The 2-0 win for Cove Rangers extended their recent run, turning a defeat into a decisive victory. The model’s favourite, Home win, with a 41% probability, proved correct. The predicted most likely score of 2-1 at 8.9% did not materialise, but the 2-0 result still fell within the model’s broader forecast of a 2-goal total. The suggested picks performed mixedly: Under 5.5 cards (83.8%) and Over 1.5 (76.9%) were hit, while Over 19.5 fouls (76.2%) and Under 11.5 corners (72.6%) missed. Under 25.5 fouls (70.8%) and Under 3.5 (70.8%) were successful, and Over 2.5 cards (70.5%) fell short. Overall, the model’s call and most selections delivered a balanced and largely accurate assessment.
Cove Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 1.03 | 2.07 | 0.73 | 1.80 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.47 | 0.87 | 1.86 | 0.57 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 2.40 | 1.20 | 2.25 | 0.88 | 2.57 | 1.57 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
Airdrie United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 0.97 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 1.47 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.17 | 1.06 | 1.44 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 1.11 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 2.08 | 0.83 | 1.83 | 0.50 | 2.33 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Airdrie United goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 13% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Cove RangersAirdrie UnitedCove Rangers| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (41) | 9.8 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 23.2 | 23.0 | 23.3 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 9.8 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 24.3 | 24.6 | 24.1 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 9.8 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 22.5 |
| % over line | 46% | 50% | 43% | 49% | 55% | 43% | 61% | 65% | 57% |
| % under line | 54% | 50% | 57% | 51% | 45% | 57% | 39% | 35% | 43% |
Airdrie United| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.6 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 21.0 | 21.3 | 20.7 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 10.8 | 11.6 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 22.5 | 22.4 | 22.6 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 10.4 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 19.2 | 20.2 | 18.1 |
| % over line | 58% | 65% | 50% | 46% | 42% | 50% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
| % under line | 42% | 35% | 50% | 54% | 58% | 50% | 54% | 54% | 54% |
Cove Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.27 | 0.93 | 0.07 | 1.00 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.87 | 0.13 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 1.07 | 0.40 | 0.75 | 0.12 | 1.43 | 0.71 |
| Clean sheet % | 87% (+61pp vs league) | |||||
Airdrie United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.57 | 1.13 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.72 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.25 | 0.58 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Cove Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.77 | 1.13 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 1.33 | 0.80 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.14 | 0.86 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Airdrie United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.73 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.44 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.83 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.17 | 1.17 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 83.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 76.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 76.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 72.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 70.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 70.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 70.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/20 | A | 1-1 |
Cove Rangers| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/21 | A | 0-0 | |
| 20/03/21 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/01/21 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/12/20 | A | 0-1 | |
| 19/12/20 | H | 2-3 | |
| 12/12/20 | A | 1-0 | |
| 05/12/20 | H | 1-2 | |
| 28/11/20 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/11/20 | A | 1-0 | |
| 07/11/20 | H | 3-0 |
Airdrie United| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/21 | H | 2-4 | |
| 20/03/21 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/12/20 | A | 2-4 | |
| 20/12/20 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/12/20 | H | 0-1 | |
| 05/12/20 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/11/20 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/11/20 | A | 1-3 | |
| 07/11/20 | H | 5-0 | |
| 31/10/20 | H | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Partick | 22 | 40 | 50% | 1.8 | 40 | 18 | +22 | 2.6 | 68% | 45% | 36% | 10.0 | 64% | 3.6 | 41% | 21.2 | 55% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Airdrie United | 22 | 38 | 55% | 1.7 | 35 | 24 | +11 | 2.7 | 77% | 41% | 27% | 10.4 | 50% | 3.3 | 45% | 20.5 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | - |
| 3 | Cove Rangers | 22 | 36 | 45% | 1.6 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 2.1 | 64% | 27% | 18% | 8.9 | 41% | 3.6 | 50% | 23.4 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 |  Montrose | 22 | 33 | 41% | 1.5 | 33 | 33 | +0 | 3.0 | 77% | 64% | 45% | 9.3 | 41% | 3.2 | 36% | 22.3 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | - |
| 5 |  East Fife | 22 | 33 | 45% | 1.5 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 2.9 | 91% | 68% | 27% | 9.9 | 59% | 3.4 | 41% | 22.7 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | - |
| 6 |  Falkirk | 22 | 32 | 41% | 1.5 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 2.5 | 82% | 50% | 18% | 10.0 | 59% | 4.0 | 55% | 24.5 | 64% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 |  Peterhead | 22 | 29 | 41% | 1.3 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 2.3 | 68% | 41% | 14% | 8.7 | 36% | 4.4 | 73% | 25.8 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 |  Clyde | 22 | 26 | 36% | 1.2 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 3.0 | 82% | 59% | 32% | 10.3 | 64% | 3.2 | 45% | 20.8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.7 | - |
| 9 |  Dumbarton | 22 | 25 | 32% | 1.1 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 1.7 | 45% | 27% | 9% | 10.2 | 64% | 3.2 | 32% | 23.0 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | - |
| 10 |  Forfar | 22 | 17 | 18% | 0.8 | 18 | 37 | -19 | 2.5 | 73% | 50% | 27% | 9.1 | 41% | 3.4 | 55% | 22.0 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | - |