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Cove Rangers vs Stenhousemuir Result & Analysis

Date: 18/04/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
Vs
28%
33%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
Scotland: League One
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Cove Rangers host Stenhousemuir at home, but recent form suggests it may not be a straightforward affair for the home side. Stenhousemuir is coming off a win, while Cove Rangers are coming off a draw. The visitors' recent performance has been more impressive, conceding fewer goals on average when facing stronger opponents.

Defensively, Cove Rangers have struggled at home, conceding an average of 1.33 goals per match against weaker opponents. In contrast, Stenhousemuir has been solid away from home, scoring 1.0 goal and conceding 0.8 goals on average when facing stronger opponents.

The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 2.0 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 14.7%. The model's selection is the away win, with a 38% probability.

The model's suggested picks include Under 3.5, which has a high probability of 85.2%. The home side's home win percentage is 28%, the draw percentage is 33%, and the away win percentage is 38%.

Results analysis

Cove Rangers pulled off a major upset, defeating Stenhousemuir 2-0, as the pre-match favourite, Stenhousemuir, failed to come through. The model's selection, an away win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 38%. The win extends Cove Rangers' run of form, having drawn their previous match and coming off a 0-0 draw against East Fife. The model's call was wrong, as Cove Rangers secured a home win. The model's suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals, hit with a probability of 85.2%, and the most likely scores were 1-1, 0-0 and 0-1, each with a probability of 14.7%, 14.5% and 13.2% respectively. The expected total goals was 2.0.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cove Rangers win✓ Hit
28.5%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.14
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.22
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir win✗ Miss
38.5%
Avg Implied 43.7% · @ 2.05
Edge
-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Cove RangersCove Rangers

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L31W11D01L21W11D22D01L32W02LA·EAS14/02H·MON17/02H·KEL21/02A·STE28/02H·PET07/03A·INV14/03H·HAM21/03H·ALL04/04A·MON07/04A·QUE11/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.270.861.071.381.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.451.400.891.111.911.64
vs Weaker (10)0.501.000.801.000.201.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D11D10W10W11D10W20W22D30W11DH·MON14/02A·INV21/02H·COV28/02A·HAM03/03A·QUE07/03A·PET14/03H·KEL21/03A·EAS28/03H·HAM04/04H·INV11/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.731.870.671.000.80
vs Stronger (30)1.430.731.870.671.000.80
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.6%
Under 1.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.2%
@ 1.91-14.8%
Under 2.5
66.8%
@ 1.76+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.8%
Under 3.5
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.7%
No
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
14.5%
0-1
13.2%
1-0
10.7%
0-2
8.1%
1-2
7.5%
2-1
6.2%
2-0 ✓
5.5%
Cove Rangers goals ↓
Stenhousemuir goals →
01234
014%13%8.1%3.0%0.8%
111%15%7.5%2.8%0.8%
25.5%6.2%3.4%1.3%0.4%
31.7%1.9%1.0%0.4%0.1%
40.4%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cove Rangers goals (down), columns = Stenhousemuir goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Inverness CT
2.06
Stenhousemuir
1.86
Hamilton
1.53
Queen of Sth
1.50
Alloa
1.47
Clyde
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Kelty Hearts
0.81
Spartans
0.50
Forfar
0.00
Cove Rangers is 0.81 points worse than Stenhousemuir in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Clyde
1.75
Inverness CT
1.67
Queen of Sth
1.61
Hamilton
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.39
Alloa
1.39
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
Forfar
1.00
East Fife
0.94
Kelty Hearts
0.92
Spartans
0.50
Cove Rangers is 0.25 goals worse than Stenhousemuir in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Inverness CT
0.67
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Alloa
1.06
Hamilton
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.31
Spartans
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Kelty Hearts
1.72
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Forfar
2.50
Cove Rangers is 0.47 goals worse than Stenhousemuir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 0.75).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Cove RangersCove Rangers

For 5.4 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.8

🚩 Corners

150575688215149510313691211810651413415A·QUEA·MONH·ALLH·HAMA·INVH·PETA·STEH·KELH·MONA·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.6

🟨 Cards

40112211211322221112231344421A·QUEA·MONH·ALLH·HAMA·INVH·PETA·STEH·KELH·MONA·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.4

⚠️ Fouls

31091113111510613952011111114576141320242519143122191327A·QUEA·MONH·ALLH·HAMA·INVH·PETA·STEH·KELH·MONA·EAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

For 5.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.0

🚩 Corners

1405444104741183845934579814112111214712H·INVH·HAMA·EASH·KELA·PETA·QUEA·HAMH·COVA·INVH·MON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.0

🟨 Cards

80255164231342235117507647482H·INVH·HAMA·EASH·KELA·PETA·QUEA·HAMH·COVA·INVH·MON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.7

⚠️ Fouls

38013151118101120181718191013151111101613828292138352928222621H·INVH·HAMA·EASH·KELA·PETA·QUEA·HAMH·COVA·INVH·MON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Cove RangersCove Rangers

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.59.39.83.03.42.520.921.820.0
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (30)9.89.610.03.23.92.521.822.521.0
vs Weaker (20)9.28.89.62.52.72.419.620.718.4
% over line43%39%48%32%44%20%43%43%43%
% under line57%61%52%68%56%80%57%57%57%
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.68.88.44.74.74.725.325.425.2
vs Stronger (47)8.78.78.64.64.54.625.525.625.3
vs Similar (1)7.0-7.03.0-3.025.0-25.0
vs Weaker (2)8.010.06.07.58.07.022.020.024.0
% over line40%36%43%70%69%71%69%64%74%
% under line60%64%57%30%31%29%31%36%26%
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Hamilton
10.4
Alloa
9.9
East Fife
9.9
Clyde
9.7
Cove Rangers
9.4
Spartans
9.1
Inverness CT
9.0
Kelty Hearts
9.0
Forfar
8.9
Peterhead
8.8
Queen of Sth
8.6
Stenhousemuir
8.5
Montrose
8.3

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.1
Queen of Sth
4.9
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Forfar
4.5
Alloa
4.4
Clyde
4.4
Spartans
4.2
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Montrose
3.8
East Fife
3.7
Inverness CT
3.6
Hamilton
3.4
Cove Rangers
3.1

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.0
Stenhousemuir
25.0
Forfar
24.4
Queen of Sth
23.4
East Fife
23.0
Alloa
22.6
Clyde
22.4
Montrose
22.2
Kelty Hearts
22.0
Inverness CT
21.7
Hamilton
21.3
Cove Rangers
20.6
Spartans
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
39.0%
Under 9.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
62.0%
Under 3.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
69.9%
Under 21.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.585.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
QOS (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
HAM (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
ALL (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Cove Rangers and Stenhousemuir have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
MON (1)
€0m
ALL (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
HAM (0)
€0m
QOS (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Cove Rangers and Stenhousemuir have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
HAM (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
QOS (0)
€0m
ALL (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Cove Rangers and Stenhousemuir have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QOS (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
HAM (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
ALL (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Cove Rangers and Stenhousemuir have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Cove Rangers vs Stenhousemuir · H/A from CR
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/26AStenhousemuir Vs CR1-0
18/10/25HCR Vs Stenhousemuir0-1
09/08/25AStenhousemuir Vs CR1-0
22/03/25HCR Vs Stenhousemuir0-0
25/01/25AStenhousemuir Vs CR0-4
03/12/24HCR Vs Stenhousemuir0-3
24/08/24AStenhousemuir Vs CR3-2
29/02/20AStenhousemuir Vs CR0-3

Cove RangersCove Rangers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26AQueen of Sth Vs CR2-0
07/04/26AMontrose Vs CR2-3
04/04/26HCR Vs Alloa0-1
21/03/26HCR Vs Hamilton2-2
14/03/26AInverness CT Vs CR1-1
07/03/26HCR Vs Peterhead2-1
28/02/26AStenhousemuir Vs CR1-0
21/02/26HCR Vs Kelty Hearts1-1
17/02/26HCR Vs Montrose3-1
14/02/26AEast Fife Vs CR2-1

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26HSTE Vs Inverness CT1-1
04/04/26HSTE Vs Hamilton3-0
28/03/26AEast Fife Vs STE2-2
21/03/26HSTE Vs Kelty Hearts2-0
14/03/26APeterhead Vs STE0-1
07/03/26AQueen of Sth Vs STE1-1
03/03/26AHamilton Vs STE0-1
28/02/26HSTE Vs Cove Rangers1-0
21/02/26AInverness CT Vs STE1-1
14/02/26HSTE Vs Montrose2-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
Scotland: League One
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWL1.16
HomeWDWDL1.20
AwayLLDWL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%28%28%
AVG goals2.582.442.72
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.301.161.44
Conceded1.281.281.28
BTTS54%60%48%
Clean Sheet18%12%24%
Corners9.549.269.83
Cards3.223.742.70
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
Scotland: League One
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWD1.64
HomeDWWWD1.73
AwayDWDWD1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%46%42%
AVG goals2.462.692.21
Over 1.5 %72%77%67%
Over 2.5 %46%54%38%
Over 3.5 %30%38%21%
Scored1.361.581.12
Conceded1.101.121.08
BTTS46%54%38%
Clean Sheet42%42%42%
Corners8.608.768.43
Cards4.854.844.87

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Inverness CTInverness CT3674
58%
2.1
6024+36
2.3
72%
39%
25%
9.1
39%
3.5
47%
22.2
53%
0
0001.70.7
-
2StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3667
50%
1.9
5027+23
2.1
64%
33%
22%
8.6
39%
5.2
81%
27.0
81%
0
0001.40.8
-
3
H
Hamilton		3655
44%
1.5
5442+12
2.7
75%
58%
33%
9.7
44%
3.2
42%
20.4
39%
0
0001.51.2
-
4
QO
Queen of Sth		3654
39%
1.5
5847+11
2.9
92%
53%
33%
8.9
33%
5.2
75%
24.3
67%
0
0001.61.3
-
5
A
Alloa		3653
42%
1.5
5038+12
2.4
67%
44%
22%
9.4
42%
4.5
61%
23.4
64%
0
0001.41.1
-
6PeterheadPeterhead3643
33%
1.2
4864-16
3.1
92%
67%
42%
9.5
44%
5.0
78%
27.9
86%
0
0001.31.8
-
7MontroseMontrose3642
31%
1.2
4867-19
3.2
89%
61%
39%
8.6
31%
3.7
61%
23.7
69%
0
0001.31.9
-
8Cove RangersCove Rangers3638
25%
1.1
4144-3
2.4
69%
39%
22%
9.4
44%
3.5
47%
22.3
53%
0
0001.11.2
-
9East FifeEast Fife3636
25%
1.0
3461-27
2.6
78%
50%
22%
9.6
47%
3.4
50%
22.8
56%
0
0000.91.7
-
10Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts3629
17%
0.8
3362-29
2.6
86%
50%
22%
9.4
42%
4.7
75%
23.8
61%
1
1000.91.7
-
11Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical410
75%
2.5
106+4
4.0
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.51.5
-
12ClydeClyde45
25%
1.2
76+1
3.2
100%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
13SpartansSpartans21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
14ForfarForfar20
0%
0.0
25-3
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.5
-
Scotland: League One 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →

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