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Cowdenbeath vs Elgin Result & Analysis

Date: 11/11/2017
Time: 00:00
Final 1-3
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Vs
19%
24%
57%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Cowdenbeath win✗ Miss
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✓ Hit
57.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L01L01L04L11D01L03L01L13LH·EDI12/08A·MON19/08H·BER26/08A·STE09/09H·PET16/09A·CLY23/09A·ANN30/09H·STI21/10A·BER28/10H·MON04/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.400.501.641.001.19
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.641.710.432.000.861.43
vs Weaker (16)0.881.120.571.291.111.00
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L32W30W01L23L30W22D20W42W02LA·PET12/08H·CLY19/08A·EDI26/08H·ANN09/09A·BER16/09H·MON23/09A·STI30/09H·STE21/10A·CLY28/10H·PET04/11
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.371.691.121.501.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.231.231.000.861.501.67
vs Weaker (17)1.881.472.221.331.501.62
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.5%
Under 2.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.1%
Under 3.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.7%
No
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.5%
0-1
8.7%
1-3 ✓
6.4%
0-3
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
2-1
5.4%
Cowdenbeath goals ↓
Elgin goals →
01234
06.0%8.7%9.5%6.2%3.0%
14.2%11%9.9%6.4%3.1%
22.7%5.4%5.2%3.4%1.6%
31.0%1.9%1.8%1.2%0.6%
40.3%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cowdenbeath goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Montrose
2.14
Peterhead
2.11
Stirling
1.53
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Clyde
1.42
Elgin
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.31
Berwick
1.03
Edinburgh City
0.83
Cowdenbeath
0.61
Cowdenbeath is 0.75 points worse than Elgin in terms of average points per game (0.61 vs 1.36).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Peterhead
2.19
Stirling
1.69
Montrose
1.67
Stenhousemuir
1.56
Elgin
1.50
Clyde
1.44
Annan Athletic
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.03
Berwick
0.86
Cowdenbeath
0.64
Cowdenbeath is 0.86 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (0.64 vs 1.50).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.97
Peterhead
1.08
Annan Athletic
1.14
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Clyde
1.39
Stirling
1.44
Cowdenbeath
1.56
Berwick
1.64
Elgin
1.69
Edinburgh City
1.72
Cowdenbeath is 0.14 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.69).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

For 4.9 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.9

ðŸšĐ Corners

22025736234715665383144571087221281159H·MONA·BERH·STIA·ANNA·CLYH·PETA·STEH·BERA·MONH·EDI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6

ðŸŸĻ Cards

5011232113231112332132534512554H·MONA·BERH·STIA·ANNA·CLYH·PETA·STEH·BERA·MONH·EDI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.7

⚠ïļ Fouls

31010131081291417101114111099141710111823182131212519232729H·MONA·BERH·STIA·ANNA·CLYH·PETA·STEH·BERA·MONH·EDI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

For 3.7 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.1

ðŸšĐ Corners

120282264732537564844271041010710111289H·PETA·CLYH·STEA·STIH·MONA·BERH·ANNA·EDIH·CLYA·PET
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.7

ðŸŸĻ Cards

702434234221211623326756232655H·PETA·CLYH·STEA·STIH·MONA·BERH·ANNA·EDIH·CLYA·PET
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 15.1 · Total 24.5

⚠ïļ Fouls

3501618615914121791451512101124314111034212329232022351721H·PETA·CLYH·STEA·STIH·MONA·BERH·ANNA·EDIH·CLYA·PET
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.29.410.80.70.60.823.324.222.5
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (23)9.710.09.30.80.70.922.523.721.3
vs Weaker (27)10.88.512.30.70.50.824.225.023.7
% over line45%40%50%12%8%15%55%80%33%
% under line55%60%50%88%92%85%45%20%67%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.59.89.01.00.81.124.023.025.2
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (24)9.810.09.50.70.70.723.425.320.5
vs Weaker (26)9.29.78.71.20.91.524.520.728.3
% over line64%67%60%14%12%17%55%67%40%
% under line36%33%40%86%88%83%45%33%60%
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Clyde
11.3
Cowdenbeath
10.2
Peterhead
9.6
Elgin
9.5
Berwick
9.3
Edinburgh City
9.0
Stirling
8.9
Stenhousemuir
8.8
Annan Athletic
8.6
Montrose
7.9

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Elgin
4.4
Clyde
4.2
Annan Athletic
4.0
Peterhead
3.7
Berwick
3.4
Cowdenbeath
3.4
Stirling
3.1
Edinburgh City
3.1
Montrose
2.6
Stenhousemuir
2.2

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
27.0
Peterhead
26.7
Edinburgh City
25.4
Stirling
24.2
Elgin
24.0
Cowdenbeath
23.3
Clyde
23.2
Berwick
22.0
Montrose
21.3
Stenhousemuir
20.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
44.6%
Under 9.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.6%
Under 3.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
70.7%
Under 21.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L01L01L03L00D01L02L00D02LH·EDI12/08A·MON19/08H·BER26/08A·STE09/09H·PET16/09A·CLY23/09A·ANN30/09H·STI21/10A·BER28/10H·MON04/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.700.140.930.380.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.141.000.001.290.290.71
vs Weaker (16)0.380.440.290.570.440.33
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L12L20W01L10W10W02L00D11D01LA·PET12/08H·CLY19/08A·EDI26/08H·ANN09/09A·BER16/09H·MON23/09A·STI30/09H·STE21/10A·CLY28/10H·PET04/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.810.500.710.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.690.540.570.570.830.50
vs Weaker (17)0.820.591.000.440.620.75
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D00D00D01L11D00D01L01L11DH·EDI12/08A·MON19/08H·BER26/08A·STE09/09H·PET16/09A·CLY23/09A·ANN30/09H·STI21/10A·BER28/10H·MON04/11
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.700.360.710.620.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.500.710.430.710.570.71
vs Weaker (16)0.500.690.290.710.670.67
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W10W00D13L20W20W20W31W01LA·PET12/08H·CLY19/08A·EDI26/08H·ANN09/09A·BER16/09H·MON23/09A·STI30/09H·STE21/10A·CLY28/10H·PET04/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.800.880.620.791.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.540.690.430.290.671.17
vs Weaker (17)1.060.881.220.890.880.88
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls83.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.581.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners77.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards77.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards76.9%-------✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls70.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
0
COW wins
3
Draws
2
ELG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Cowdenbeath vs Elgin · H/A from COW
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/17AElgin Vs COW1-1
06/05/17AElgin Vs COW0-0
14/03/17HCOW Vs Elgin1-1
29/10/16AElgin Vs COW3-1
06/08/16HCOW Vs Elgin0-1

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/11/17HCOW Vs Montrose1-3
28/10/17ABerwick Vs COW1-0
21/10/17HCOW Vs Stirling0-3
30/09/17AAnnan Athletic Vs COW1-0
23/09/17AClyde Vs COW1-1
16/09/17HCOW Vs Peterhead0-4
09/09/17AStenhousemuir Vs COW1-0
26/08/17HCOW Vs Berwick0-1
19/08/17AMontrose Vs COW1-0
12/08/17HCOW Vs Edinburgh City1-0

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/11/17HELG Vs Peterhead0-2
28/10/17AClyde Vs ELG2-4
21/10/17HELG Vs Stenhousemuir2-0
30/09/17AStirling Vs ELG2-2
23/09/17HELG Vs Montrose3-0
16/09/17ABerwick Vs ELG3-2
09/09/17HELG Vs Annan Athletic0-1
26/08/17AEdinburgh City Vs ELG0-3
19/08/17HELG Vs Clyde3-2
12/08/17APeterhead Vs ELG3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL0.82
HomeWLLLL0.75
AwayLLDLL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%21%19%
AVG goals2.422.382.46
Over 1.5 %68%71%65%
Over 2.5 %36%33%38%
Over 3.5 %22%21%23%
Scored0.900.751.04
Conceded1.521.621.42
BTTS44%33%54%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Corners10.189.4010.83
Cards3.363.003.67
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.50
HomeWLWWL1.62
AwayLWLDW1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%42%42%
AVG goals3.203.083.33
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %62%54%71%
Over 3.5 %44%46%42%
Scored1.901.921.88
Conceded1.301.151.46
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet26%23%29%
Corners9.459.839.00
Cards4.363.505.40

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1MontroseMontrose3677
64%
2.1
6035+25
2.6
69%
50%
28%
9.2
42%
3.1
36%
22.4
56%
0
0001.71.0
-
2PeterheadPeterhead3676
67%
2.1
7939+40
3.3
75%
61%
39%
9.4
42%
3.7
56%
26.9
86%
0
0002.21.1
-
3StirlingStirling3655
44%
1.5
6152+9
3.1
83%
67%
39%
9.7
50%
3.4
33%
23.4
67%
0
0001.71.4
-
4StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3654
42%
1.5
5647+9
2.9
86%
53%
31%
10.2
47%
3.0
36%
20.3
39%
0
0001.61.3
-
5ClydeClyde3651
39%
1.4
5250+2
2.8
78%
61%
31%
10.3
50%
4.0
58%
22.4
58%
0
0001.41.4
-
6ElginElgin3649
39%
1.4
5461-7
3.2
89%
61%
39%
10.1
64%
3.8
50%
22.0
50%
0
0001.51.7
-
7Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3647
33%
1.3
4941+8
2.5
69%
42%
25%
8.9
33%
3.8
47%
23.9
75%
0
0001.41.1
-
8
B
Berwick
3637
25%
1.0
3159-28
2.5
64%
47%
33%
9.6
50%
3.1
36%
22.0
50%
0
0000.91.6
-
9Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3630
19%
0.8
3762-25
2.8
81%
58%
28%
9.8
47%
3.2
47%
23.6
58%
0
0001.01.7
-
10CowdenbeathCowdenbeath3622
11%
0.6
2356-33
2.2
67%
33%
19%
8.7
36%
3.9
56%
23.6
61%
0
0000.61.6
-
Scotland: League Two 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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