This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.90
1.40
0.73
1.33
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.52
0.96
1.33
0.75
1.73
1.18
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.71
1.67
0.67
0.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.8%
@ 1.98+2.3%
Under 2.5
50.2%
@ 1.79-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-2
8.8%
0-1
8.7%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
7.6%
1-0
7.4%
0-2
7.1%
2-2
5.4%
Crawley Town goals ↓
Northampton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
8.7%
7.1%
3.4%
1.2%
1
7.4%
14%
8.8%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.3%
7.6%
5.4%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.2%
3.1%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crawley Town goals (down), columns = Northampton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leyton Orient
1.98
Stevenage
1.85
Northampton
1.80
Stockport
1.72
Bradford
1.65
Carlisle
1.65
Mansfield
1.63
Salford
1.63
Barrow
1.35
Grimsby
1.33
Swindon
1.33
Sutton
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Tranmere
1.26
Newport County
1.24
Doncaster
1.20
Walsall
1.20
Gillingham
1.20
Harrogate
1.13
Colchester
1.07
AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Crawley Town
1.00
Hartlepool
0.93
Rochdale
0.83
Crawley Town is 0.80 points worse than Northampton in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Mansfield
1.57
Salford
1.57
Carlisle
1.43
Stockport
1.41
Northampton
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.33
Swindon
1.33
Bradford
1.33
Stevenage
1.33
Harrogate
1.28
Newport County
1.15
Hartlepool
1.13
Grimsby
1.07
AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Crawley Town
1.04
Crewe
1.04
Barrow
1.02
Sutton
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Rochdale
1.00
Tranmere
0.98
Colchester
0.96
Gillingham
0.78
Crawley Town is 0.30 goals worse than Northampton in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leyton Orient
0.74
Stockport
0.80
Stevenage
0.85
Northampton
0.91
Bradford
0.93
Carlisle
0.93
Tranmere
1.04
Walsall
1.07
Gillingham
1.07
Colchester
1.11
Barrow
1.15
Salford
1.17
Swindon
1.20
Mansfield
1.20
Grimsby
1.22
Newport County
1.22
Sutton
1.26
AFC Wimbledon
1.30
Crewe
1.30
Doncaster
1.41
Harrogate
1.48
Rochdale
1.52
Crawley Town
1.54
Hartlepool
1.70
Crawley Town is 0.63 goals worse than Northampton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.54 vs 0.91).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swindon
58%
Leyton Orient
58%
Salford
57%
Bradford
54%
Stockport
54%
Mansfield
53%
Hartlepool
51%
Crawley Town
51%
Northampton
51%
Tranmere
51%
Grimsby
50%
Doncaster
50%
Rochdale
49%
Harrogate
48%
Crewe
48%
Stevenage
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Newport County
46%
Carlisle
46%
Sutton
46%
Walsall
46%
Barrow
46%
Colchester
46%
Gillingham
45%
Crawley Town is 0.2 percentage points better than Northampton in terms of average possession (51% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Crawley Town
For 5.4 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 10.4 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Northampton
For 3.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 11.6 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crawley Town
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.2
9.8
3.1
3.2
3.0
23.2
23.9
22.6
vs Stronger (1)
6.0
6.0
-
4.0
4.0
-
22.0
22.0
-
vs Similar (36)
9.6
9.4
9.8
3.0
3.0
3.0
23.4
23.6
23.3
vs Weaker (13)
9.3
9.0
9.6
3.2
3.7
2.9
22.7
25.2
20.6
% over line
48%
48%
48%
44%
44%
44%
64%
72%
56%
% under line
52%
52%
52%
56%
56%
56%
36%
28%
44%
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.6
8.1
3.9
4.0
3.9
23.6
22.8
24.4
vs Stronger (1)
14.0
-
14.0
3.0
-
3.0
28.0
-
28.0
vs Similar (36)
8.8
10.1
7.6
3.9
3.9
3.9
23.9
23.6
24.3
vs Weaker (13)
8.5
8.3
8.7
3.9
4.0
3.8
22.5
20.9
24.3
% over line
34%
44%
24%
64%
60%
68%
68%
60%
76%
% under line
66%
56%
76%
36%
40%
32%
32%
40%
24%
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barrow
10.6
Tranmere
10.5
Sutton
10.4
Rochdale
10.2
Mansfield
10.1
Harrogate
10.1
Doncaster
10.0
AFC Wimbledon
9.9
Crewe
9.9
Stevenage
9.8
Swindon
9.7
Bradford
9.7
Crawley Town
9.5
Colchester
9.4
Carlisle
9.4
Gillingham
9.4
Newport County
9.4
Salford
9.3
Walsall
9.0
Leyton Orient
9.0
Northampton
8.8
Hartlepool
8.7
Grimsby
8.5
Stockport
6.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Barrow
4.4
Leyton Orient
4.1
AFC Wimbledon
4.0
Northampton
3.9
Swindon
3.9
Stockport
3.6
Mansfield
3.6
Salford
3.6
Colchester
3.5
Bradford
3.4
Tranmere
3.4
Carlisle
3.4
Crewe
3.4
Newport County
3.4
Sutton
3.4
Walsall
3.3
Gillingham
3.3
Doncaster
3.1
Crawley Town
3.1
Grimsby
3.0
Stevenage
3.0
Harrogate
2.9
Hartlepool
2.9
Rochdale
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Grimsby
27.8
Stockport
26.3
Walsall
24.0
Tranmere
23.9
Northampton
23.6
Barrow
23.6
Mansfield
23.2
Crawley Town
23.2
Bradford
23.2
Salford
22.8
Swindon
22.8
Leyton Orient
22.8
Sutton
22.7
Colchester
22.6
AFC Wimbledon
22.6
Crewe
22.6
Hartlepool
21.9
Carlisle
21.6
Stevenage
21.5
Newport County
21.3
Harrogate
21.3
Gillingham
21.2
Doncaster
20.9
Rochdale
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
64.5%
Under 9.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
51.7%
Under 21.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Crawley Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.50
0.21
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.52
0.40
0.20
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.57
0.75
0.25
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.30
0.67
0.27
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.35
0.67
0.25
1.18
0.45
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.14
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crawley Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crawley Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crawley Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Crawley Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.64
0.79
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.87
0.90
1.00
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (7)
0.00
0.43
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Northampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.73
0.47
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.61
0.67
0.50
0.55
0.73
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.57
1.00
0.33
0.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crawley Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crawley Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crawley Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Crawley Town · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. Orsi25%
Pemi Aderoju25%
Gianmarco Di Biase25%
L. Watson20%
Priestley Farquharson0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Jude Arthurs0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
J. Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jude Arthurs60%
L. Watson40%
Klaudio Krasniqi40%
Charlie Barker40%
J. Russell40%
Priestley Farquharson25%
Pemi Aderoju25%
D. Orsi0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
Osman Kamara0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Priestley Farquharson0%
D. Orsi0%
Akin Odimayo0%
L. Watson0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Jude Arthurs0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
J. Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
Pemi Aderoju0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
L. Watson20%
Jude Arthurs20%
Priestley Farquharson0%
D. Orsi0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
J. Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
Pemi Aderoju0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Northampton · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Logan Briggs33%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Matty Warhurst0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Saunders33%
Logan Briggs33%
L. Evans25%
J. Maxwell25%
Tyrese Fornah25%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
Z. Jeacock0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 33%
E. Moore0%
S. Hoskins0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Logan Briggs0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Hoskins25%
E. Moore0%
L. Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans0%
H. Saunders0%
J. Maxwell0%
Z. Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
J. Wormleighton0%
Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh 0%
Logan Briggs0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Crawley Town and Northampton have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Crawley Town and Northampton have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Crawley Town and Northampton have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STO (11)
€4m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Crawley Town's defence is €1m less valuable than Northampton's (€1m vs €2m).
England: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Leyton Orient
Stevenage
Stockport
Carlisle
Bradford
Salford
Mansfield
Barrow
Swindon
Grimsby
Tranmere
Crewe
Sutton
Newport County
Walsall
Gillingham
Doncaster
Harrogate
Colchester
AFC Wimbledon
Hartlepool
Rochdale