Crawley Town vs Salford Result & Analysis

Crawley Town’s defensive record at home shows a modest 1.08 goals conceded per match, while Salford’s away form keeps them to just 0.91 goals against, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair. The model favours an away win, with a 52% chance for Salford, 30% for a draw and 17% for Crawley. The expected total goals is 2.0, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-1 for Salford, with a 16.8% probability. Crawley averages 0.92 goals scored at home against similar opposition, whereas Salford nets only 0.45 on the road against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 95.9%, Under 4.5 cards at 89.4%, Under 3.5 cards at 76.2%, Under 3.5 at 85.3%, Over 8.5 corners at 85.2%, Over 9.5 corners at 76.8%, Under 25.5 fouls at 76.6% and Under 19.5 fouls at 70.7%. The only miss is Over 19.5 fouls.

The win for Crawley Town, 2-1, was a surprise that left the pre-match favourite Salford, who had a 52% chance of triumph, on the wrong side of the table. Crawley, coming off a draw, extended their recent form streak with this victory. The model’s call was incorrect, but it hit on every statistical selection: Under 5.5 cards at 95.9%, Under 4.5 cards at 89.4%, Under 3.5 cards at 85.3%, Over 8.5 corners at 85.2%, Over 9.5 corners at 76.8%, Under 25.5 fouls at 76.6%, Under 3.5 cards at 76.2%, and the only miss was Over 19.5 fouls at 70.7%. The match delivered on the model’s predictions for cards, corners and fouls, despite the outcome being the opposite of the favored side.