The match between Cremonese and Modena sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring a home win but leaving room for a draw or an away triumph. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% chance. Cremonese’s home form shows an average of 1.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded against similar opposition, while Modena’s away record averages 1.13 scored and 1.13 conceded. The probabilities for the outcomes are 40% for a Cremonese victory, 31% for a draw, and 29% for Modena to win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7% with a 2% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4% with a 3% edge), Over 19.5 fouls (97.0%), and Under 5.5 (96.3% with a 1% edge). Both sides have slipped recently, with Cremonese after two straight defeats and Modena coming off a win, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Cremonese, failed to deliver, as Modena triumphed 3-0. The model’s pick of a home win, with a 40% probability, proved incorrect. The final score of 0-3 confirmed an away victory, a reversal of the predicted home advantage. Every suggested selection was settled: Under 7.5 (99.6%) hit, Under 6.5 (98.8%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (97.5%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (97.0%) hit, and Under 5.5 (96.3%) hit. Modena’s win extended their two-game winning run, while Cremonese’s form slipped after three consecutive defeats. The model’s predictions largely matched reality, except for the home win call.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cremonese win✗ Miss
40.5%
Avg Implied 44.2% · @ 2.11
Edge
-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.26
Dafabet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.18
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied 30.1% · @ 3.10
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.35
Betano
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
Marathonbet
3.18
Dafabet
3.10
Modena win✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.64
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.40
Unibet
3.75
William Hil
3.75
1xBet
3.74
Betano
3.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cremonese
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.60
0.87
1.67
0.53
1.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
2.57
0.62
2.62
0.17
2.50
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.75
1.14
0.57
0.78
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Modena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Modena
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.07
1.20
1.00
1.13
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.17
1.07
1.20
1.00
1.13
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cremonese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.7%
@ 1.41+2.1%
Under 1.5
31.3%
@ 2.79-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
3.24
Marathonbet
2.99
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.85
Superbet
2.82
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.9%
@ 2.29-0.4%
Under 2.5
59.1%
@ 1.61+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.45
Betfair
2.38
Superbet
2.37
Betano
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Under
Marathonbet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.5%
@ 4.23-1.7%
Under 3.5
79.5%
@ 1.21+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.80
BetVictor
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.0%
@ 1.97+0.9%
No
52.0%
@ 1.75-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Bet365
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
No
Marathonbet
1.90
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 5.72+6.6%
1-0
11.2%@ 5.81+3.6%
0-0
11.1%@ 7.04+4.8%
0-1
8.9%@ 8.40+3.6%
2-1
8.4%@ 8.58+3.2%
2-0
8.0%@ 8.76+2.9%
1-2
6.8%@ 11.97+3.1%
0-2
5.3%@ 16.85+2.7%
Cremonese goals ↓
Modena goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.8%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.0%
8.4%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.4%
3.6%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cremonese goals (down), columns = Modena goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Palermo
1.88
Hellas Verona
1.82
Pisa
1.72
Catanzaro
1.58
Cremonese
1.54
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Padova
1.21
Cesena
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Arezzo
1.19
Benevento
1.17
Vicenza Virtus
1.16
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Ascoli
1.15
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Cremonese is 0.13 points better than Modena in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hellas Verona
1.73
Catanzaro
1.63
Pisa
1.63
Palermo
1.57
Cremonese
1.46
Modena
1.26
Empoli
1.24
Carrarese
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Arezzo
1.13
Benevento
1.11
Avellino
1.10
Vicenza Virtus
1.10
Ascoli
1.09
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Cremonese is 0.20 goals better than Modena in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Palermo
0.90
Hellas Verona
0.94
Modena
0.95
Pisa
1.00
Cremonese
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Arezzo
1.43
Benevento
1.46
Vicenza Virtus
1.47
Cesena
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Ascoli
1.49
Mantova
1.50
Cremonese is 0.16 goals worse than Modena in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Palermo
49%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Sudtirol
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cremonese
For 3.8 · Against 3.5 · Total 7.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 12.1 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Modena
For 3.6 · Against 5.3 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.2 · Against 12.7 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cremonese
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.5
9.4
4.0
4.0
4.0
28.0
27.8
28.2
vs Stronger (18)
9.4
8.7
10.1
3.4
3.4
3.4
25.3
25.8
24.9
vs Similar (31)
8.7
8.4
9.0
4.3
4.3
4.3
29.6
29.0
30.2
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
-
9.0
5.0
-
5.0
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
42%
33%
50%
48%
54%
42%
86%
92%
81%
% under line
58%
67%
50%
52%
46%
58%
14%
8%
19%
This opponent (Modena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Modena
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
7.5
10.5
4.6
4.7
4.6
28.7
28.7
28.7
vs Stronger (1)
7.0
7.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
vs Similar (48)
9.1
7.5
10.7
4.6
4.7
4.5
28.9
29.2
28.7
vs Weaker (1)
6.0
-
6.0
5.0
-
5.0
30.0
-
30.0
% over line
42%
24%
60%
66%
68%
64%
86%
88%
84%
% under line
58%
76%
40%
34%
32%
36%
14%
12%
16%
This opponent (Cremonese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benevento
11.0
Vicenza Virtus
10.5
Carrarese
10.3
Padova
10.0
Virtus Entella
10.0
Palermo
9.5
Empoli
9.4
Mantova
9.4
Cesena
9.4
Ascoli
9.3
Sampdoria
9.2
Juve Stabia
9.1
Modena
9.0
Avellino
9.0
Cremonese
9.0
Catanzaro
8.9
Hellas Verona
8.8
Sudtirol
8.5
Pisa
8.4
Arezzo
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
5.6
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Carrarese
5.1
Mantova
5.1
Sampdoria
5.1
Catanzaro
4.9
Juve Stabia
4.9
Avellino
4.8
Palermo
4.8
Padova
4.7
Modena
4.7
Benevento
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Sudtirol
4.4
Virtus Entella
4.3
Hellas Verona
4.1
Cesena
4.1
Cremonese
4.1
Pisa
4.0
Arezzo
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Ascoli
32.7
Sampdoria
32.7
Avellino
31.0
Sudtirol
30.8
Catanzaro
30.8
Juve Stabia
30.1
Vicenza Virtus
29.9
Virtus Entella
29.9
Empoli
29.6
Padova
28.9
Modena
28.7
Carrarese
28.4
Benevento
28.4
Palermo
28.4
Cremonese
28.0
Cesena
26.3
Hellas Verona
25.9
Pisa
24.9
Arezzo
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
51.3%
@ 2.09+7.1%
Under 9.5
48.7%
@ 1.66-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
Unibet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.6%
@ 1.45+1.2%
Under 3.5
36.4%
@ 2.40-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.45
Under
Superbet
2.40
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.8%
Under 21.5
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cremonese or Draw✗ Miss
70.7%
Avg Implied 74.4% · @ 1.26
Edge
-3.7%
40%
31%
29%
covers Cremonese + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.25
Cremonese or Modena✓ Hit
70.2%
Avg Implied 70.5% · @ 1.33
Edge
-0.4%
40%
31%
29%
covers Cremonese + Modena
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Draw or Modena✓ Hit
59.1%
Avg Implied 55.0% · @ 1.70
Edge
+4.1%
40%
31%
29%
covers Draw + Modena
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.91
SBO
1.80
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.70
William Hil
1.67
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cremonese over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
73.6%
@ 1.27+0.6%
Under
26.4%
@ 3.44-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.86
10Bet
3.70
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Bet365
3.40
Cremonese over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.4%
@ 2.37-1.1%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.55+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Superbet
2.45
BetVictor
2.38
Unibet
2.38
Under
Marathonbet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Cremonese over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.0%
@ 5.41-2.1%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.12+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.60
1xBet
5.60
BetVictor
5.50
Under
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Cremonese over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 12.07-3.2%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
1xBet
11.20
Marathonbet
10.50
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Modena over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.4%
@ 1.53+5.2%
Under
33.6%
@ 2.40-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.56
BetVictor
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.82
Marathonbet
2.64
Betfair
2.63
Superbet
2.45
Betano
2.40
Modena over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
29.7%
@ 3.57+3.6%
Under
70.3%
@ 1.26-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
1xBet
3.60
Under
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Modena over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
9.8%
@ 9.48-0.1%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.04+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
10.20
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.00
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Modena over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 24.50-1.5%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cremonese, so a minus line means Cremonese give that many goals of a start and Modena receive them. At -1, Cremonese must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cremonese win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cremonese)Actual: Modena
Cremonese -2
7.0%
@ 9.82-2.2%
Draw -2
12.4%
@ 6.14-2.3%
Modena +2
80.6%
@ 1.19+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.30
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.10
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.10
Superbet
6.00
Unibet
5.50
Away
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Handicap -1 (Cremonese)Actual: Modena
Cremonese -1
19.4%
@ 4.10-2.5%
Draw -1
21.5%
@ 3.51-4.2%
Modena +1
59.1%
@ 1.71+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.25
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Unibet
3.95
Draw
Marathonbet
3.74
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.30
Away
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.70
Superbet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Handicap +1 (Cremonese)Actual: Modena
Cremonese +1
70.7%
@ 1.26-0.5%
Draw +1
17.3%
@ 4.87-1.1%
Modena -1
11.9%
@ 8.70+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Draw
10Bet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Unibet
4.80
Superbet
4.80
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.40
Handicap +2 (Cremonese)Actual: Modena
Cremonese +2
88.1%
@ 1.05-1.1%
Draw +2
8.3%
@ 12.50+0.8%
Modena -2
3.6%
@ 28.50+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cremonese
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.83
0.27
0.73
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.07
1.21
0.12
1.12
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.50
0.43
0.29
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Modena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Modena
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.53
0.20
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.60
0.47
0.53
0.20
0.67
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Cremonese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.1%
@ 1.49+6.5%
Under 0.5
30.9%
@ 2.49-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.52
BetVictor
1.51
Unibet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.80
Marathonbet
2.57
Betfair
2.55
Superbet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.5%
@ 3.33+3.4%
Under 1.5
68.5%
@ 1.30-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Betano
3.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.2%
@ 8.93+0.7%
Under 2.5
88.8%
@ 1.04-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
William Hil
10.00
BetVictor
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
9.00
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cremonese over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.7%
@ 2.04+1.1%
Under
53.3%
@ 1.71-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
Unibet
2.04
1xBet
2.03
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.71
Superbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Cremonese over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 6.19-2.6%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.09+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Betano
6.20
Marathonbet
6.10
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Cremonese over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 17.67-2.8%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Modena over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.3%
@ 2.63+3.0%
Under
61.7%
@ 1.44-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.88
Unibet
2.70
1xBet
2.68
Superbet
2.62
Betano
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Marathonbet
1.49
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.40
Modena over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
8.2%
@ 9.49-1.6%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.03+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
9.50
Marathonbet
8.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
10Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Modena over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 40.00-98.6%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cremonese
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.60
0.93
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
1.36
0.50
1.50
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.25
0.71
0.29
0.44
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Modena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Modena
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.67
0.80
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.57
0.60
0.67
0.80
0.47
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Cremonese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.6%
@ 1.31+3.6%
Under 0.5
25.4%
@ 3.22-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Under
Marathonbet
3.50
Betano
3.30
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.22
Superbet
3.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.1%
@ 2.46+3.2%
Under 1.5
58.9%
@ 1.50-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Betano
2.40
Under
Marathonbet
1.63
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
William Hil
1.44
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.3%
@ 5.66+0.8%
Under 2.5
82.7%
@ 1.12-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
William Hil
6.50
Superbet
5.90
1xBet
5.20
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cremonese over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.2%
@ 1.73+1.5%
Under
44.8%
@ 2.00-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
10Bet
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.99
Superbet
1.92
Cremonese over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.0%
@ 4.50-3.6%
Under
83.0%
@ 1.17+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.90
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Cremonese over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 12.00-2.7%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.02+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Modena over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.3%
@ 2.17+2.7%
Under
54.7%
@ 1.62-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
1.97
Under
Marathonbet
1.73
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.59
10Bet
1.50
Modena over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 6.99-0.9%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.07+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
8.50
1xBet
7.30
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.20
Marathonbet
6.05
Under
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Modena over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 18.00-3.1%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
Bet365
1.01
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
1.02
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
10Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
+1.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
90.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
+0.1%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
90.1%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
-1.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.09
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.6%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.0%
1.12
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.17
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.14
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.7%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.6%
1.19
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.5%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.6%
1.31
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.6%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.28
+0.6%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.5%
1.34
Superbet
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.2%
1.22
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.23
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.17
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.7%
1.26
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.25
-3.7%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
70.7%
1.26
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.24
-0.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
70.3%
1.26
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.28
-3.6%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.2%
1.33
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.34
-0.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cremonese
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tommaso Berti33%
Simone Lottici Tessadri33%
S. Luperto0%
Giuseppe Pezzella0%
M. Bianchetti0%
J. Vandeputte0%
Federico Bonazzoli0%
A. Vogliacco0%
S. Pontisso0%
M. De Luca0%
F. Gerli0%
M. Nasti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
F. Gerli67%
J. Vandeputte50%
Giuseppe Pezzella33%
S. Pontisso33%
M. Bianchetti25%
S. Luperto0%
Federico Bonazzoli0%
A. Vogliacco0%
M. De Luca0%
Tommaso Berti0%
M. Nasti0%
Simone Lottici Tessadri0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tommaso Berti33%
M. Nasti33%
S. Luperto0%
Giuseppe Pezzella0%
M. Bianchetti0%
J. Vandeputte0%
Federico Bonazzoli0%
A. Vogliacco0%
S. Pontisso0%
M. De Luca0%
F. Gerli0%
Simone Lottici Tessadri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Luperto0%
Giuseppe Pezzella0%
M. Bianchetti0%
J. Vandeputte0%
Federico Bonazzoli0%
A. Vogliacco0%
S. Pontisso0%
M. De Luca0%
F. Gerli0%
Tommaso Berti0%
M. Nasti0%
Simone Lottici Tessadri0%
Modena
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giuseppe Caso33%
Giuseppe Ambrosino33%
Francesco Zampano0%
Gastón Brugman0%
Leandro Chichizola0%
Alessandro Bianco0%
Steven Nador0%
Bryant Nieling0%
Daniel Tonoli0%
Antonio Imputato0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Tonoli33%
Francesco Zampano0%
Gastón Brugman0%
Leandro Chichizola0%
Giuseppe Caso0%
Alessandro Bianco0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Steven Nador0%
Bryant Nieling0%
Antonio Imputato0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gastón Brugman33%
Giuseppe Caso33%
Giuseppe Ambrosino33%
Antonio Imputato33%
Francesco Zampano0%
Leandro Chichizola0%
Alessandro Bianco0%
Steven Nador0%
Bryant Nieling0%
Daniel Tonoli0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Giuseppe Ambrosino33%
Francesco Zampano0%
Gastón Brugman0%
Leandro Chichizola0%
Giuseppe Caso0%
Alessandro Bianco0%
Steven Nador0%
Bryant Nieling0%
Daniel Tonoli0%
Antonio Imputato0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (36)
€71m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
MOD (28)
€31m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
PAD (31)
€25m
MAN (32)
€24m
SUD (27)
€21m
CAT (30)
€21m
EMP (27)
€20m
CAR (22)
€15m
JS (33)
€13m
ARE (32)
€13m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
Cremonese's squad is €18m more valuable than Modena's (€49m vs €31m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (13)
€24m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
MAN (12)
€12m
CAT (15)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
MOD (9)
€7m
PAD (9)
€6m
AVE (10)
€6m
CAR (5)
€5m
ASC (11)
€5m
ARE (10)
€4m
BEN (8)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
SUD (5)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
JS (8)
€2m
Cremonese's attack is €5m more valuable than Modena's (€12m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (9)
€26m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
MOD (9)
€11m
SUD (10)
€11m
AVE (6)
€9m
SAM (6)
€7m
PAD (9)
€7m
MAN (10)
€6m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
VV (12)
€5m
JS (11)
€5m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
CAR (7)
€2m
ARE (6)
€2m
CAT (2)
€2m
Cremonese's midfield is €4m more valuable than Modena's (€15m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
MOD (10)
€12m
CES (13)
€12m
PAD (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
CAT (13)
€8m
SUD (12)
€8m
CAR (10)
€8m
MAN (10)
€7m
ARE (16)
€6m
JS (14)
€6m
BEN (13)
€5m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Cremonese's defence is €10m more valuable than Modena's (€22m vs €12m).
Italy: Serie B 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Mantova
Palermo
Cesena
Ascoli
Sudtirol
Padova
Avellino
Arezzo
Pisa
Juve Stabia
Empoli
Vicenza Virtus
Carrarese
Benevento
Hellas Verona
Sampdoria
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella