PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Croatia Zmijavci vs Jarun Result & Analysis

Date: 29/09/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci
Vs
44%
31%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Jarun
Jarun
Croatia: First NL
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Croatia Zmijavci win✓ Hit
44.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jarun win✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L02L11D31W00D00D23L12L10W22DA·SOL12/05H·DUG19/05A·JAR25/05H·SES01/06A·ORI17/08H·OPA25/08A·SES30/08A·RUD07/09A·ZRI14/09A·BSK18/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.472.080.920.711.88
vs Stronger (2)0.501.50--0.501.50
vs Similar (28)1.361.462.080.920.731.93
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Jarun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JarunJarun

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D00D20W22D11D31W12L12L20WA·HNK18/05H·CRO25/05A·ORI01/06A·ZRI18/08H·DUG25/08A·HNK01/09H·DUB07/09A·OPA13/09H·RUD19/09A·BSK22/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.231.191.501.000.93
vs Stronger (2)1.501.002.002.001.000.00
vs Similar (28)1.071.251.131.471.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.4%
Under 1.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.4%
Under 2.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.5%
Under 3.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.1%
No
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0 ✓
12.8%
0-0
12.1%
2-0
9.2%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
4.6%
Croatia Zmijavci goals ↓
Jarun goals →
01234
012%8.6%4.6%1.4%0.3%
113%14%6.0%1.8%0.4%
29.2%8.5%3.9%1.2%0.3%
34.0%3.7%1.7%0.5%0.1%
41.3%1.2%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Croatia Zmijavci goals (down), columns = Jarun goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vukovar
2.18
Opatija
2.06
Orijent 1919
1.70
Sesvete
1.48
HNK Cibalia
1.39
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.21
Rudes
1.18
Jarun
1.12
Dugopolje
0.94
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.27
Croatia Zmijavci is 0.09 points better than Jarun in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.12).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vukovar
1.67
Opatija
1.45
HNK Cibalia
1.42
Orijent 1919
1.39
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.21
Sesvete
1.09
Dubrava Zagreb
1.06
Croatia Zmijavci
1.00
Jarun
1.00
Dugopolje
1.00
Rudes
0.94
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.45
Croatia Zmijavci and Jarun are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vukovar
0.42
Opatija
0.61
Orijent 1919
0.94
Sesvete
0.97
Rudes
1.00
Dubrava Zagreb
1.09
HNK Cibalia
1.18
Jarun
1.18
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Croatia Zmijavci
1.30
Dugopolje
1.58
Zrinski Jurjevac
2.15
Croatia Zmijavci is 0.12 goals worse than Jarun in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.18).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L20W00D00D02L01L00D01LA·SOL12/05H·DUG19/05A·JAR25/05H·SES01/06A·ORI17/08H·OPA25/08A·SES30/08A·RUD07/09A·ZRI14/09A·BSK18/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.701.000.150.181.12
vs Stronger (2)0.500.50--0.500.50
vs Similar (28)0.540.711.000.150.131.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Jarun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JarunJarun

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W00D10W11D10W01L10W11D20WA·HNK18/05H·CRO25/05A·ORI01/06A·ZRI18/08H·DUG25/08A·HNK01/09H·DUB07/09A·OPA13/09H·RUD19/09A·BSK22/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.530.440.750.570.29
vs Stronger (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (28)0.500.570.400.800.620.31
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L01L10W11D00D00D21W11D10W21WA·SOL12/05H·DUG19/05A·JAR25/05H·SES01/06A·ORI17/08H·OPA25/08A·SES30/08A·RUD07/09A·ZRI14/09A·BSK18/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.771.080.770.530.76
vs Stronger (2)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (28)0.820.751.080.770.600.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Jarun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JarunJarun

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L00D10W11D01L30W02L01L00DA·HNK18/05H·CRO25/05A·ORI01/06A·ZRI18/08H·DUG25/08A·HNK01/09H·DUB07/09A·OPA13/09H·RUD19/09A·BSK22/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.700.750.750.430.64
vs Stronger (2)1.001.001.002.001.000.00
vs Similar (28)0.570.680.730.670.380.69
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (27)
€5m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (13)
€3m
VUK (6)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
RUD (10)
€1m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
CZ wins
1
Draws
2
JAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Croatia Zmijavci vs Jarun · H/A from CZ
DateH/AGameScore
25/05/24AJarun Vs CZ1-1
03/12/23HCZ Vs Jarun1-0
16/09/23AJarun Vs CZ5-2
16/04/23HCZ Vs Jarun1-0
04/03/23AJarun Vs CZ2-1
09/10/22HCZ Vs Jarun2-1

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/09/24ABsk Bijelo Brdo Vs CZ2-2
14/09/24AZrinski Jurjevac Vs CZ0-1
07/09/24ARudes Vs CZ2-1
30/08/24ASesvete Vs CZ3-2
25/08/24HCZ Vs Opatija0-0
17/08/24AOrijent 1919 Vs CZ0-0
01/06/24HCZ Vs Sesvete3-1
25/05/24AJarun Vs CZ1-1
19/05/24HCZ Vs Dugopolje0-2
12/05/24ASolin Vs CZ4-0

JarunJarun

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/24ABsk Bijelo Brdo Vs JAR0-2
19/09/24HJAR Vs Rudes1-2
13/09/24AOpatija Vs JAR2-1
07/09/24HJAR Vs Dubrava Zagreb3-1
01/09/24AHNK Cibalia Vs JAR1-1
25/08/24HJAR Vs Dugopolje2-2
18/08/24AZrinski Jurjevac Vs JAR0-2
01/06/24AOrijent 1919 Vs JAR0-0
25/05/24HJAR Vs Croatia Zmijavci1-1
18/05/24AHNK Cibalia Vs JAR1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWD1.18
HomeWWLWD1.91
AwayDLLWD0.61
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%55%7%
AVG goals2.542.642.46
Over 1.5 %72%73%71%
Over 2.5 %50%55%46%
Over 3.5 %24%23%25%
Scored1.181.770.71
Conceded1.360.861.75
BTTS48%45%50%
Clean Sheet30%45%18%
Corners---
Cards---
Jarun
Jarun
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLW1.34
HomeLDDWL1.48
AwayDWDLW1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%44%32%
AVG goals2.542.962.12
Over 1.5 %72%80%64%
Over 2.5 %46%60%32%
Over 3.5 %26%32%20%
Scored1.181.520.84
Conceded1.361.441.28
BTTS46%56%36%
Clean Sheet26%20%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VukovarVukovar3372
64%
2.2
5514+41
2.1
58%
30%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.4
-
2OpatijaOpatija3368
58%
2.1
4820+28
2.1
64%
39%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.50.6
-
3Orijent 1919Orijent 19193356
42%
1.7
4631+15
2.3
76%
33%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.40.9
-
4SesveteSesvete3349
42%
1.5
3632+4
2.1
52%
39%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.11.0
-
5HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia3346
36%
1.4
4739+8
2.6
76%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.41.2
-
6Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb3346
42%
1.4
3536-1
2.2
61%
48%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.1
-
7Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo3346
39%
1.4
4042-2
2.5
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.3
-
8Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci3340
30%
1.2
3343-10
2.3
58%
45%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.3
-
9RudesRudes3339
30%
1.2
3133-2
1.9
61%
30%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3110.91.0
-
10JarunJarun3337
27%
1.1
3339-6
2.2
70%
39%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
11DugopoljeDugopolje3331
18%
0.9
3352-19
2.6
79%
45%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.6
-
12Zrinski JurjevacZrinski Jurjevac339
3%
0.3
1571-56
2.6
67%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.2
-
Croatia: First NL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →

← all matches