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CSF Bălți vs Milsami Orhei Result & Analysis

Date: 21/10/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 3-0
CSF Bălți
CSF Bălți
Vs
35%
29%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
Moldova: Super Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The contest between CSF Bălți and Milsami Orhei is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win at 35%. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly scored affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14% chance. CSF Bălți, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.5 goals scored and concedes 2.17, while Milsami Orhei, on the road to a weaker side, nets 1.75 and concedes 1.25. The probabilities for the match outcome are 35% for a CSF Bălți win, 29% for a draw, and 35% for a Milsami Orhei win. Suggested selections include Under 3.5 with 74.9% probability and Over 1.5 with 73.3% probability. The model’s pick remains a CSF Bălți victory.

Results analysis

After a rough run of three straight defeats, CSF Bălți’s home form has finally turned around, and the model’s pick of a home win proved correct as the team secured a 3-0 victory over Milsami Orhei. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 35% probability, and the prediction was right. The model’s selections also hit: Under 3.5 goals, with a 74.9% probability, and Over 1.5 goals, at 73.3%. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (14%) and the 2-goal expectation were not realized, but the overall outcome matched the forecast. Milsami’s away form, coming off a draw, could not stop the hosts’ resurgence.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

CSF Bălți win✓ Hit
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei win✗ Miss
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CSF BălțiCSF Bălți

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L11D30W12L21W01L11D04L04L51WA·MIL13/05H·ZIM20/05H·DAC05/08A·MIL12/08H·FLO20/08A·ZIM26/08H·SPA17/09H·PET23/09A·SHE30/09A·DAC07/10
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.301.081.380.881.24
vs Stronger (19)0.471.630.502.170.461.38
vs Similar (10)1.800.701.500.672.250.75
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D01L10W21W02L20W21W21W21W10WA·PAN13/07H·PAN20/07A·ZIM06/08H·CSF12/08A·PET19/08H·SHE27/08A·DAC16/09A·SPA24/09H·FLO01/10H·ZIM07/10
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.271.141.001.001.50
vs Stronger (5)0.602.001.001.000.332.67
vs Similar (16)0.941.251.001.290.891.22
vs Weaker (9)1.560.891.400.601.751.25
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.6%
Under 2.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-0
9.2%
1-0
8.8%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
8.1%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
6.3%
CSF Bălți goals ↓
Milsami Orhei goals →
01234
09.2%8.7%6.3%2.7%0.8%
18.8%14%8.1%3.4%1.1%
26.4%8.1%5.1%2.2%0.7%
32.7%3.4%2.2%0.9%0.3%
40.9%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSF Bălți goals (down), columns = Milsami Orhei goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Victoria Bardar
2.38
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.17
Petrocub
2.17
Olimp Comrat
2.00
Zimbru
1.75
Milsami Orhei
1.58
Saxan
1.54
Iskra
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Floreşti
1.38
CSF Bălți
1.25
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.17
Dacia-Buiucani
0.67
Spartanii Selemet
0.60
Speranța Drochia
0.09
Făleşti
0.00
FCM Ungheni
0.00
CSF Bălți is 0.33 points worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.58).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Petrocub
2.46
Victoria Bardar
2.15
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.12
FCM Ungheni
2.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.92
Floreşti
1.62
Olimp Comrat
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Saxan
1.38
Zimbru
1.38
CSF Bălți
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.29
Iskra
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.96
Dacia-Buiucani
0.83
Speranța Drochia
0.45
Făleşti
0.00
CSF Bălți is 0.08 goals better than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.29).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Olimp Comrat
0.00
Petrocub
0.50
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.67
Victoria Bardar
0.92
Zimbru
0.96
Milsami Orhei
1.08
Saxan
1.15
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.58
Floreşti
1.62
CSF Bălți
1.83
Dacia-Buiucani
2.42
Iskra
2.50
Speranis Nisporeni
2.50
Spartanii Selemet
2.52
Speranța Drochia
2.82
Făleşti
3.00
FCM Ungheni
3.00
CSF Bălți is 0.75 goals worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CSF BălțiCSF Bălți

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D10W02L10W00D00D01L03L21WA·MIL13/05H·ZIM20/05H·DAC05/08A·MIL12/08H·FLO20/08A·ZIM26/08H·SPA17/09H·PET23/09A·SHE30/09A·DAC07/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.230.500.310.230.180.71
vs Stronger (19)0.110.630.170.330.080.77
vs Similar (10)0.400.300.330.170.500.50
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D20W00D10W10W01L10W00DA·PAN13/07H·PAN20/07A·ZIM06/08H·CSF12/08A·PET19/08H·SHE27/08A·DAC16/09A·SPA24/09H·FLO01/10H·ZIM07/10
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.430.640.290.310.56
vs Stronger (5)0.401.200.500.500.331.67
vs Similar (16)0.500.250.710.430.330.11
vs Weaker (9)0.440.330.600.000.250.75
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

CSF BălțiCSF Bălți

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D20W10W11D01L11D03L01L30WA·MIL13/05H·ZIM20/05H·DAC05/08A·MIL12/08H·FLO20/08A·ZIM26/08H·SPA17/09H·PET23/09A·SHE30/09A·DAC07/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.800.771.150.710.53
vs Stronger (19)0.371.000.331.830.380.62
vs Similar (10)1.400.401.170.501.750.25
vs Weaker (1)1.001.001.001.00--
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L10W01L02L10W11D20W11D10WA·PAN13/07H·PAN20/07A·ZIM06/08H·CSF12/08A·PET19/08H·SHE27/08A·DAC16/09A·SPA24/09H·FLO01/10H·ZIM07/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.830.500.710.690.94
vs Stronger (5)0.200.800.500.500.001.00
vs Similar (16)0.441.000.290.860.561.11
vs Weaker (9)1.110.560.800.601.500.50
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
CSF Bălți's squad is €3m less valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€1m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Milsami Orhei have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Milsami Orhei have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
CSF Bălți's defence is €1m less valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
0
CB wins
2
Draws
3
MO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

CSF Bălți vs Milsami Orhei · H/A from CB
DateH/AGameScore
12/08/23AMilsami Orhei Vs CB2-1
13/05/23AMilsami Orhei Vs CB1-0
09/04/23HCB Vs Milsami Orhei2-2
01/10/22AMilsami Orhei Vs CB1-0
07/08/22HCB Vs Milsami Orhei1-1

CSF BălțiCSF Bălți

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23ADacia-Buiucani Vs CB1-5
30/09/23ASheriff Tiraspol Vs CB4-0
23/09/23HCB Vs Petrocub0-4
17/09/23HCB Vs Spartanii Selemet1-1
26/08/23AZimbru Vs CB1-0
20/08/23HCB Vs Floreşti2-1
12/08/23AMilsami Orhei Vs CB2-1
05/08/23HCB Vs Dacia-Buiucani3-0
20/05/23HCB Vs Zimbru1-1
13/05/23AMilsami Orhei Vs CB1-0

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23HMO Vs Zimbru1-0
01/10/23HMO Vs Floreşti2-1
24/09/23ASpartanii Selemet Vs MO1-2
16/09/23ADacia-Buiucani Vs MO1-2
27/08/23HMO Vs Sheriff Tiraspol2-0
19/08/23APetrocub Vs MO2-0
12/08/23HMO Vs CSF Bălți2-1
06/08/23AZimbru Vs MO0-1
20/07/23HMO Vs Panevėžys0-1
13/07/23APanevėžys Vs MO2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

CSF Bălți
CSF Bălți
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLW1.00
HomeDWWDL1.14
AwayLLLLW0.89
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%29%22%
AVG goals2.192.432.00
Over 1.5 %62%79%50%
Over 2.5 %41%43%39%
Over 3.5 %16%21%11%
Scored0.941.070.83
Conceded1.251.361.17
BTTS34%36%33%
Clean Sheet22%21%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.45
HomeLWWWW1.78
AwayDWLWW1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%56%25%
AVG goals2.262.112.40
Over 1.5 %71%61%80%
Over 2.5 %39%33%45%
Over 3.5 %16%11%20%
Scored1.081.111.05
Conceded1.181.001.35
BTTS45%28%60%
Clean Sheet34%50%20%
Corners8.5010.676.33
Cards5.254.009.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PetrocubPetrocub2452
62%
2.2
5912+47
3.0
79%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.50.5
-
2Sheriff TiraspolSheriff Tiraspol2452
67%
2.2
5116+35
2.8
83%
54%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3132.10.7
-
3ZimbruZimbru2442
54%
1.8
3323+10
2.3
71%
38%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.41.0
-
4Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei2438
46%
1.6
3126+5
2.4
75%
54%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.31.1
-
5FloreştiFloreşti2433
42%
1.4
3939+0
3.2
83%
79%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.6
-
6Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar1331
77%
2.4
2812+16
3.1
69%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.9
-
7CSF BălțiCSF Bălți2430
38%
1.2
3344-11
3.2
88%
75%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.8
-
8SaxanSaxan1320
46%
1.5
1815+3
2.5
62%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
9Dacia-BuiucaniDacia-Buiucani2416
12%
0.7
2058-38
3.2
92%
67%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0010.82.4
-
10Spartanii SelemetSpartanii Selemet2515
16%
0.6
2463-39
3.5
92%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.5
-
11Gagauziya-OguzsportGagauziya-Oguzsport1214
33%
1.2
2319+4
3.5
100%
83%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
12Olimp ComratOlimp Comrat24
50%
2.0
30+3
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.0
-
13Speranis NisporeniSperanis Nisporeni23
50%
1.5
35-2
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.5
-
14IskraIskra23
50%
1.5
25-3
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.5
-
15Speranța DrochiaSperanța Drochia111
0%
0.1
531-26
3.3
91%
73%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.8
-
16FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni10
0%
0.0
23-1
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.03.0
-
17FăleştiFăleşti10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Moldova: Super Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →

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