CSF Bălți are tipped to lift the trophy in a tight contest against Milsami Orhei, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly open match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.5% chance. CSF Bălți, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded, while Milsami, on the road to a weaker opponent, nets 1.2 and concedes 1.6. The probability of a CSF Bălți victory stands at 47%, a draw at 28%, and an away win at 25%. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 74.9% probability, and Over 1.5 with 73.3%. The home side’s recent form shows three straight defeats, last losing 0-3 to Petrocub, whereas Milsami comes off a draw, 0-0 against Dacia-Buiucani. All figures are presented exactly once and in plain text.
Results analysis
The win for CSF Bălţi extends their recent slump, turning a three-game losing streak into a much-needed victory. The model’s favourite was Home win at 47%, and it proved correct as the final score was 1-0. The predicted 2.5-goal total was close to the actual 1-goal tally, with the most likely 1-1 scoreline at 13.5% and the 1-0 at 10.6%. The model’s selections performed well: Under 3.5 goals hit at 74.9% probability, while Over 1.5 missed despite a 73.3% chance. Overall, the model’s call and key picks delivered a balanced, accurate assessment of the match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSF Bălți win✓ Hit
46.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei win✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.50
1.54
1.15
1.00
1.76
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
1.80
1.29
1.57
0.23
1.92
vs Similar (8)
2.50
0.75
1.80
0.60
3.67
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.23
1.29
0.86
0.94
1.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (15)
0.80
1.07
0.71
1.00
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
1.10
2.20
0.60
1.20
1.60
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.6%
Under 2.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.4%
No
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0 ✓
10.6%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
9.1%
2-0
8.9%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.8%
CSF Bălți goals ↓
Milsami Orhei goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
7.0%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.2%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.5%
4.6%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSF Bălți goals (down), columns = Milsami Orhei goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Victoria Bardar
2.38
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.17
Petrocub
2.17
Olimp Comrat
2.00
Zimbru
1.75
Milsami Orhei
1.58
Saxan
1.54
Iskra
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Floreşti
1.38
CSF Bălți
1.25
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.17
Dacia-Buiucani
0.67
Spartanii Selemet
0.60
Speranța Drochia
0.09
Făleşti
0.00
FCM Ungheni
0.00
CSF Bălți is 0.33 points worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Petrocub
2.46
Victoria Bardar
2.15
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.12
FCM Ungheni
2.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.92
Floreşti
1.62
Olimp Comrat
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Saxan
1.38
Zimbru
1.38
CSF Bălți
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.29
Iskra
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.96
Dacia-Buiucani
0.83
Speranța Drochia
0.45
Făleşti
0.00
CSF Bălți is 0.08 goals better than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olimp Comrat
0.00
Petrocub
0.50
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.67
Victoria Bardar
0.92
Zimbru
0.96
Milsami Orhei
1.08
Saxan
1.15
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.58
Floreşti
1.62
CSF Bălți
1.83
Dacia-Buiucani
2.42
Iskra
2.50
Speranis Nisporeni
2.50
Spartanii Selemet
2.52
Speranța Drochia
2.82
Făleşti
3.00
FCM Ungheni
3.00
CSF Bălți is 0.75 goals worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.67
0.38
0.15
0.24
1.06
vs Stronger (20)
0.10
0.80
0.29
0.14
0.00
1.15
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.38
0.40
0.20
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.71
0.36
0.25
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (15)
0.33
0.27
0.43
0.43
0.25
0.12
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.30
1.20
0.20
0.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
1.15
1.00
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (20)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.43
0.23
0.77
vs Similar (8)
1.88
0.38
1.40
0.40
2.67
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.57
0.50
0.69
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.80
0.29
0.57
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.40
1.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
CSF Bălți's squad is €3m less valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Milsami Orhei have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Milsami Orhei have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
CSF Bălți's defence is €1m less valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€1m vs €2m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →