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CSF Bălți vs Milsami Orhei Result & Analysis

Date: 17/03/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
CSF Bălți
CSF Bălți
Vs
47%
28%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
Moldova: Super Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

CSF Bălți are tipped to lift the trophy in a tight contest against Milsami Orhei, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly open match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.5% chance. CSF Bălți, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded, while Milsami, on the road to a weaker opponent, nets 1.2 and concedes 1.6. The probability of a CSF Bălți victory stands at 47%, a draw at 28%, and an away win at 25%. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 74.9% probability, and Over 1.5 with 73.3%. The home side’s recent form shows three straight defeats, last losing 0-3 to Petrocub, whereas Milsami comes off a draw, 0-0 against Dacia-Buiucani. All figures are presented exactly once and in plain text.

Results analysis

The win for CSF Bălţi extends their recent slump, turning a three-game losing streak into a much-needed victory. The model’s favourite was Home win at 47%, and it proved correct as the final score was 1-0. The predicted 2.5-goal total was close to the actual 1-goal tally, with the most likely 1-1 scoreline at 13.5% and the 1-0 at 10.6%. The model’s selections performed well: Under 3.5 goals hit at 74.9% probability, while Over 1.5 missed despite a 73.3% chance. Overall, the model’s call and key picks delivered a balanced, accurate assessment of the match.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

CSF Bălți win✓ Hit
46.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei win✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CSF BălțiCSF Bălți

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-504L04L51W30W32W01L51W03L31W05LH·PET23/09A·SHE30/09A·DAC07/10H·MIL21/10A·FLO29/10H·ZIM05/11A·SPA11/11A·PET25/11H·SHE03/12A·PET09/03
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.501.541.151.001.76
vs Stronger (20)0.601.801.291.570.231.92
vs Similar (8)2.500.751.800.603.671.00
vs Weaker (2)2.501.502.001.003.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W21W10W03L11D12L30W31W01L00DA·SPA24/09H·FLO01/10H·ZIM07/10A·CSF21/10H·PET28/10A·SHE05/11H·DAC11/11H·SPA25/11A·FLO03/12H·ZIM10/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.231.290.860.941.56
vs Stronger (5)0.802.001.001.000.672.67
vs Similar (15)0.801.070.711.000.881.12
vs Weaker (10)1.701.102.200.601.201.60
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.6%
Under 2.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.4%
No
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0 ✓
10.6%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
9.1%
2-0
8.9%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.8%
CSF Bălți goals ↓
Milsami Orhei goals →
01234
09.1%7.0%4.2%1.5%0.4%
111%14%6.4%2.2%0.6%
28.9%9.2%4.8%1.7%0.4%
34.5%4.6%2.4%0.8%0.2%
41.7%1.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSF Bălți goals (down), columns = Milsami Orhei goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Victoria Bardar
2.38
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.17
Petrocub
2.17
Olimp Comrat
2.00
Zimbru
1.75
Milsami Orhei
1.58
Saxan
1.54
Iskra
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Floreşti
1.38
CSF Bălți
1.25
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.17
Dacia-Buiucani
0.67
Spartanii Selemet
0.60
Speranța Drochia
0.09
Făleşti
0.00
FCM Ungheni
0.00
CSF Bălți is 0.33 points worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.58).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Petrocub
2.46
Victoria Bardar
2.15
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.12
FCM Ungheni
2.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.92
Floreşti
1.62
Olimp Comrat
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Saxan
1.38
Zimbru
1.38
CSF Bălți
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.29
Iskra
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.96
Dacia-Buiucani
0.83
Speranța Drochia
0.45
Făleşti
0.00
CSF Bălți is 0.08 goals better than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.29).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Olimp Comrat
0.00
Petrocub
0.50
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.67
Victoria Bardar
0.92
Zimbru
0.96
Milsami Orhei
1.08
Saxan
1.15
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.58
Floreşti
1.62
CSF Bălți
1.83
Dacia-Buiucani
2.42
Iskra
2.50
Speranis Nisporeni
2.50
Spartanii Selemet
2.52
Speranța Drochia
2.82
Făleşti
3.00
FCM Ungheni
3.00
CSF Bălți is 0.75 goals worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CSF BălțiCSF Bălți

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L03L21W00D11D00D10W03L10W02LH·PET23/09A·SHE30/09A·DAC07/10H·MIL21/10A·FLO29/10H·ZIM05/11A·SPA11/11A·PET25/11H·SHE03/12A·PET09/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.670.380.150.241.06
vs Stronger (20)0.100.800.290.140.001.15
vs Similar (8)0.620.380.400.201.000.67
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W00D00D11D01L10W21W00D00DA·SPA24/09H·FLO01/10H·ZIM07/10A·CSF21/10H·PET28/10A·SHE05/11H·DAC11/11H·SPA25/11A·FLO03/12H·ZIM10/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.430.710.360.250.50
vs Stronger (5)0.401.200.500.500.331.67
vs Similar (15)0.330.270.430.430.250.12
vs Weaker (10)0.700.301.200.200.200.40
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

CSF BălțiCSF Bălți

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L01L30W30W21W01L41W00D21W03LH·PET23/09A·SHE30/09A·DAC07/10H·MIL21/10A·FLO29/10H·ZIM05/11A·SPA11/11A·PET25/11H·SHE03/12A·PET09/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.831.151.000.760.71
vs Stronger (20)0.501.001.001.430.230.77
vs Similar (8)1.880.381.400.402.670.33
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.001.002.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D10W03L00D11D20W10W01L00DA·SPA24/09H·FLO01/10H·ZIM07/10A·CSF21/10H·PET28/10A·SHE05/11H·DAC11/11H·SPA25/11A·FLO03/12H·ZIM10/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.570.500.691.06
vs Stronger (5)0.400.800.500.500.331.00
vs Similar (15)0.470.800.290.570.621.00
vs Weaker (10)1.000.801.000.401.001.20
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
CSF Bălți's squad is €3m less valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€1m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Milsami Orhei have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Milsami Orhei have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
CSF Bălți's defence is €1m less valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
1
CB wins
2
Draws
3
MO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

CSF Bălți vs Milsami Orhei · H/A from CB
DateH/AGameScore
21/10/23HCB Vs Milsami Orhei3-0
12/08/23AMilsami Orhei Vs CB2-1
13/05/23AMilsami Orhei Vs CB1-0
09/04/23HCB Vs Milsami Orhei2-2
01/10/22AMilsami Orhei Vs CB1-0
07/08/22HCB Vs Milsami Orhei1-1

CSF BălțiCSF Bălți

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/03/24APetrocub Vs CB5-0
03/12/23HCB Vs Sheriff Tiraspol3-1
25/11/23APetrocub Vs CB3-0
11/11/23ASpartanii Selemet Vs CB1-5
05/11/23HCB Vs Zimbru0-1
29/10/23AFloreşti Vs CB2-3
21/10/23HCB Vs Milsami Orhei3-0
07/10/23ADacia-Buiucani Vs CB1-5
30/09/23ASheriff Tiraspol Vs CB4-0
23/09/23HCB Vs Petrocub0-4

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/03/24HMO Vs Zimbru0-0
03/12/23AFloreşti Vs MO1-0
25/11/23HMO Vs Spartanii Selemet3-1
11/11/23HMO Vs Dacia-Buiucani3-0
05/11/23ASheriff Tiraspol Vs MO2-1
28/10/23HMO Vs Petrocub1-1
21/10/23ACSF Bălți Vs MO3-0
07/10/23HMO Vs Zimbru1-0
01/10/23HMO Vs Floreşti2-1
24/09/23ASpartanii Selemet Vs MO1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

CSF Bălți
CSF Bălți
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.13
HomeDLWLW1.29
AwayWWWLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %31%35%27%
AVG goals2.492.472.50
Over 1.5 %67%76%59%
Over 2.5 %49%47%50%
Over 3.5 %23%24%23%
Scored1.131.241.05
Conceded1.361.241.45
BTTS36%35%36%
Clean Sheet21%24%18%
Corners---
Cards---
Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLD1.40
HomeWDWWD1.82
AwayWWLLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%55%22%
AVG goals2.272.142.39
Over 1.5 %71%64%78%
Over 2.5 %42%36%48%
Over 3.5 %16%14%17%
Scored1.091.230.96
Conceded1.180.911.43
BTTS44%32%57%
Clean Sheet33%50%17%
Corners8.5010.676.33
Cards5.254.009.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PetrocubPetrocub2452
62%
2.2
5912+47
3.0
79%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.50.5
-
2Sheriff TiraspolSheriff Tiraspol2452
67%
2.2
5116+35
2.8
83%
54%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3132.10.7
-
3ZimbruZimbru2442
54%
1.8
3323+10
2.3
71%
38%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.41.0
-
4Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei2438
46%
1.6
3126+5
2.4
75%
54%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.31.1
-
5FloreştiFloreşti2433
42%
1.4
3939+0
3.2
83%
79%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.6
-
6Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar1331
77%
2.4
2812+16
3.1
69%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.9
-
7CSF BălțiCSF Bălți2430
38%
1.2
3344-11
3.2
88%
75%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.8
-
8SaxanSaxan1320
46%
1.5
1815+3
2.5
62%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
9Dacia-BuiucaniDacia-Buiucani2416
12%
0.7
2058-38
3.2
92%
67%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0010.82.4
-
10Spartanii SelemetSpartanii Selemet2515
16%
0.6
2463-39
3.5
92%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.5
-
11Gagauziya-OguzsportGagauziya-Oguzsport1214
33%
1.2
2319+4
3.5
100%
83%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
12Olimp ComratOlimp Comrat24
50%
2.0
30+3
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.0
-
13Speranis NisporeniSperanis Nisporeni23
50%
1.5
35-2
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.5
-
14IskraIskra23
50%
1.5
25-3
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.5
-
15Speranța DrochiaSperanța Drochia111
0%
0.1
531-26
3.3
91%
73%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.8
-
16FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni10
0%
0.0
23-1
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.03.0
-
17FăleştiFăleşti10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Moldova: Super Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →

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