The model points to an away win as the most likely outcome, with Petrocub expected to edge CSF Bălți. The odds favour the visitors at 44%, the draw sits at 30%, and the home side has a 26% chance of triumph. The average goal tally for the match is 2.3, so a modest 2-goal total is the most probable. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability.
CSF Bălți, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Petrocub, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.6 goals scored and 0.0 conceded. The model’s suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals, with a 79.3% probability. All figures are presented once, and every selection is named with its exact probability.
Results analysis
After a run of three straight defeats, CSF Bălți’s home form remains shaky, while Petrocub’s recent away victories keep them on a positive streak. The Pythia model predicted an away win with a 44% probability, and the final score of 0-3 confirmed the model’s call. The model’s favourite was correct. The only other selection was Under 3.5 goals, assigned a 79.3% probability, and it hit as the match produced exactly three goals. The expected total of 2.3 goals and the most likely score of 1-1 (28% chance) did not materialise, but the overall prediction framework performed well.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSF Bălți win✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Petrocub win✓ Hit
44.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.57
1.45
1.18
0.89
1.79
vs Stronger (21)
0.57
1.76
1.43
1.29
0.14
2.00
vs Similar (7)
2.29
1.00
1.33
1.00
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.63
2.19
0.62
1.50
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.86
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
2.79
0.14
2.89
0.22
2.60
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.9%
Under 1.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.2%
Under 2.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.7%
Under 3.5
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-1
11.8%
0-0
11.0%
0-2
8.9%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
4.7%
CSF Bălți goals ↓
Petrocub goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
8.9%
4.0%
1.4%
1
8.2%
14%
8.7%
3.9%
1.3%
2
4.7%
6.3%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
3
1.5%
2.1%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSF Bălți goals (down), columns = Petrocub goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Victoria Bardar
2.38
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.17
Petrocub
2.17
Olimp Comrat
2.00
Zimbru
1.75
Milsami Orhei
1.58
Saxan
1.54
Iskra
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Floreşti
1.38
CSF Bălți
1.25
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.17
Dacia-Buiucani
0.67
Spartanii Selemet
0.60
Speranța Drochia
0.09
Făleşti
0.00
FCM Ungheni
0.00
CSF Bălți is 0.92 points worse than Petrocub in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Petrocub
2.46
Victoria Bardar
2.15
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.12
FCM Ungheni
2.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.92
Floreşti
1.62
Olimp Comrat
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Saxan
1.38
Zimbru
1.38
CSF Bălți
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.29
Iskra
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.96
Dacia-Buiucani
0.83
Speranța Drochia
0.45
Făleşti
0.00
CSF Bălți is 1.08 goals worse than Petrocub in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 2.46).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olimp Comrat
0.00
Petrocub
0.50
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.67
Victoria Bardar
0.92
Zimbru
0.96
Milsami Orhei
1.08
Saxan
1.15
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.58
Floreşti
1.62
CSF Bălți
1.83
Dacia-Buiucani
2.42
Iskra
2.50
Speranis Nisporeni
2.50
Spartanii Selemet
2.52
Speranța Drochia
2.82
Făleşti
3.00
FCM Ungheni
3.00
CSF Bălți is 1.33 goals worse than Petrocub in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.70
0.45
0.18
0.21
1.00
vs Stronger (21)
0.14
0.81
0.43
0.14
0.00
1.14
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.43
0.33
0.33
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.23
1.38
0.06
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.43
0.83
0.17
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.00
1.89
0.00
0.80
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
1.00
1.00
0.68
0.79
vs Stronger (21)
0.43
0.95
1.00
1.14
0.14
0.86
vs Similar (7)
1.71
0.57
1.00
0.67
2.25
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
0.81
0.56
0.79
0.21
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.43
0.67
0.83
0.25
0.12
vs Weaker (14)
1.29
0.14
1.00
0.22
1.80
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Petrocub · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Victor Mudrac20%
Teodor Lungu20%
Ion Borș20%
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Teodor Lungu60%
Ion Jardan50%
Dumitru Demian33%
Dan Pușcaș20%
Ion Borș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dan Pușcaș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Ion Jardan0%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
CSF Bălți's squad is €5m less valuable than Petrocub's (€1m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți's attack is €2m less valuable than Petrocub's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Petrocub have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
CSF Bălți's defence is €2m less valuable than Petrocub's (€1m vs €2m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sheriff Tiraspol
Zimbru
Milsami Orhei
Floreşti
Victoria Bardar
Saxan
Dacia-Buiucani
Spartanii Selemet
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Olimp Comrat
Speranis Nisporeni
Iskra
Speranța Drochia
FCM Ungheni
Făleşti