CSKA Moscow are expected to emerge victorious in this Premier League encounter against Lokomotiv, with a 48% probability of a home win. The match is likely to be a closely contested and low-scoring affair, with 2.9 goals expected on average. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring 12.5% of the time. CSKA Moscow, unbeaten in their last 5 matches, have a strong home record, scoring an average of 2 goals per game and conceding 2. In contrast, Lokomotiv have struggled to find the net away from home, averaging 1.6 goals per game, while conceding 2.4. The model suggests an Over 21.5 fouls selection with an 84.1% probability and an Over 1.5 goals selection with a 79% probability, holding a 4% edge. Home win probability stands at 48%, draw at 26%, and away win at 26%. The model's selection is a Home win, occurring 48% of the time.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on, as CSKA Moscow secured a 3-2 home win, extending their recent victory streak. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 48 % probability and was correct. Every suggested pick from the model hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.3 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4 %, Under 6.5 at 97.7 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.3 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.1 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.7 %, and Under 5.5 at 93.9 %. The match delivered a high-scoring 3-2 outcome, matching the model’s 2-goal expectation and confirming the accuracy of its selections.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSKA Moscow win✓ Hit
48.2%
Avg Implied 48.6% · @ 1.96
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.96
SBO
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.63
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.84
Marathonbet
3.75
Pinnacle
3.72
Dafabet
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Lokomotiv win✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.78
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.08
Pinnacle
4.06
Marathonbet
3.98
Dafabet
3.65
Superbet
3.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSKA Moscow
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.13
1.44
1.00
1.00
1.29
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.25
2.00
2.33
2.00
0.60
2.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.24
0.71
1.25
0.58
1.22
0.89
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.30
1.50
0.86
1.25
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.31
1.54
1.50
1.00
1.14
2.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
1.13
1.71
0.86
1.50
1.38
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Moscow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
@ 1.20-0.5%
Under 1.5
22.7%
@ 4.19+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Under
Pinnacle
4.26
Superbet
4.20
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.0%
@ 1.71-3.9%
Under 2.5
48.0%
@ 2.17+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
SBO
1.69
Superbet
1.67
Under
1xBet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.18
SBO
2.17
Marathonbet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.8%
@ 2.67-5.1%
Under 3.5
70.2%
@ 1.43+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.82
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Superbet
2.62
Under
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.4%
@ 1.59-2.8%
No
44.6%
@ 2.22+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.58
No
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.19
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%@ 6.49+6.0%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.91+3.9%
1-0
9.2%@ 8.27+3.9%
2-0
8.5%@ 9.81+4.0%
0-0
7.5%@ 13.75+4.3%
1-2
6.5%@ 11.94+2.8%
0-1
6.0%@ 12.27+2.4%
2-2
5.3%@ 11.92+1.6%
CSKA Moscow goals ↓
Lokomotiv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
6.0%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.2%
13%
6.5%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.5%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.6%
5.2%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.1%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSKA Moscow goals (down), columns = Lokomotiv goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Krasnodar
3.00
Spartak Moscow
2.17
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Zenit
2.00
Dynamo
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.50
Rubin
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.17
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Rostov
0.83
Rodina Moskva
0.67
Akron
0.50
Lokomotiv
0.50
Fakel
0.33
CSKA Moscow is 1.50 points better than Lokomotiv in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
2.17
Spartak Moscow
1.83
FC Krasnodar
1.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
Baltika
1.67
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Akhmat
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.33
FC Rostov
1.17
Akron
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.83
FC Orenburg
0.83
Fakel
0.50
CSKA Moscow is 0.67 goals better than Lokomotiv in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Krasnodar
0.67
Zenit
0.67
Spartak Moscow
0.83
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Baltika
1.00
Fakel
1.17
Dynamo
1.17
FC Orenburg
1.17
Akhmat
1.33
Lokomotiv
1.33
Rubin
1.33
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
FC Rostov
1.67
Akron
2.50
Rodina Moskva
2.83
CSKA Moscow is 0.33 goals better than Lokomotiv in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
63%
Spartak Moscow
62%
Zenit
60%
CSKA Moscow
57%
FC Krasnodar
57%
Akron
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
49%
Fakel
48%
Akhmat
47%
Rubin
47%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
40%
FC Orenburg
39%
Baltika
36%
CSKA Moscow is 6.3 percentage points better than Lokomotiv in terms of average possession (57% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
CSKA Moscow
For 3.9 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 13.3 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lokomotiv
For 5.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 11.6 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
CSKA Moscow
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.5
10.7
4.1
3.8
4.5
26.4
26.2
26.7
vs Stronger (2)
9.5
9.0
10.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
26.0
23.0
29.0
vs Similar (14)
10.1
11.0
9.2
4.6
4.7
4.6
25.1
25.0
25.2
vs Weaker (34)
10.8
10.5
11.4
3.9
3.4
4.5
26.9
26.8
27.1
% over line
58%
57%
60%
50%
42%
58%
83%
76%
93%
% under line
42%
43%
40%
50%
58%
42%
17%
24%
7%
This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.6
9.5
4.4
4.5
4.2
27.6
28.3
26.8
vs Stronger (2)
7.0
6.0
8.0
7.5
12.0
3.0
28.5
29.0
28.0
vs Similar (23)
8.5
7.9
9.3
4.1
3.8
4.5
27.7
28.1
27.3
vs Weaker (25)
9.6
9.4
9.8
4.4
4.7
4.1
27.4
28.4
26.3
% over line
46%
37%
56%
50%
54%
46%
84%
84%
83%
% under line
54%
63%
44%
50%
46%
54%
16%
16%
17%
This opponent (CSKA Moscow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
11.8
CSKA Moscow
10.5
FC Orenburg
10.2
Dynamo
10.0
Zenit
9.7
Akhmat
9.4
Krylia Sovetov
9.4
Akron
9.2
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.2
Lokomotiv
9.2
Dinamo Makhachkala
8.9
Rubin
8.6
FC Rostov
8.4
FC Krasnodar
8.4
Baltika
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Moscow
5.2
Baltika
5.1
FC Krasnodar
5.0
FC Rostov
4.9
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.6
Krylia Sovetov
4.6
CSKA Moscow
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.5
Akhmat
4.4
Dynamo
4.4
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.4
Fakel
4.2
Zenit
4.0
Akron
3.9
Rodina Moskva
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Baltika
30.3
Spartak Moscow
29.9
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.5
FC Krasnodar
29.1
Akhmat
28.8
Rubin
28.8
FC Rostov
28.7
FC Orenburg
28.2
Fakel
27.8
Dynamo
27.6
Rodina Moskva
27.5
Lokomotiv
27.4
Akron
27.3
Zenit
27.2
CSKA Moscow
26.6
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.8%
@ 1.81-3.7%
Under 9.5
52.2%
@ 1.92+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.1%
@ 1.76+7.6%
Under 3.5
39.9%
@ 1.95-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
Under
Superbet
1.95
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.0%
Under 21.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
CSKA Moscow or Draw✓ Hit
75.1%
Avg Implied 75.2% · @ 1.26
Edge
-0.1%
48%
27%
25%
covers CSKA Moscow + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
SBO
1.21
CSKA Moscow or Lokomotiv✓ Hit
73.1%
Avg Implied 74.4% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.3%
48%
27%
25%
covers CSKA Moscow + Lokomotiv
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.27
SBO
1.20
Draw or Lokomotiv✗ Miss
51.8%
Avg Implied 50.4% · @ 1.88
Edge
+1.5%
48%
27%
25%
covers Draw + Lokomotiv
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
SBO
1.87
Superbet
1.76
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
CSKA Moscow over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.5%
@ 1.16+0.2%
Under
19.5%
@ 4.73-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Under
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.25
CSKA Moscow over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
48.6%
@ 1.81-3.8%
Under
51.4%
@ 1.99+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.99
Superbet
1.92
CSKA Moscow over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
22.6%
@ 3.54-3.9%
Under
77.4%
@ 1.28+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.64
Superbet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Under
Pinnacle
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
CSKA Moscow over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 7.87-3.4%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.05+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.10
Marathonbet
7.80
Superbet
7.70
Under
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Lokomotiv over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.4%
@ 1.36-1.6%
Under
32.6%
@ 3.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Under
Pinnacle
3.18
Superbet
3.10
Marathonbet
2.89
1xBet
2.89
Lokomotiv over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.8%
@ 2.75-3.5%
Under
69.2%
@ 1.44+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
Marathonbet
2.86
1xBet
2.65
Superbet
2.60
Under
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
Lokomotiv over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.4%
@ 6.90-3.1%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.07+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.10
Superbet
6.10
Under
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
Lokomotiv over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 16.00-3.2%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to CSKA Moscow, so a minus line means CSKA Moscow give that many goals of a start and Lokomotiv receive them. At -1, CSKA Moscow must win by two or more to land; a one-goal CSKA Moscow win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (CSKA Moscow)Actual: Lokomotiv
CSKA Moscow -2
11.0%
@ 6.55-2.7%
Draw -2
15.0%
@ 5.55-1.1%
Lokomotiv +2
74.0%
@ 1.28+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.70
Superbet
5.40
Away
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Handicap -1 (CSKA Moscow)Actual: Draw
CSKA Moscow -1
26.0%
@ 3.29-1.5%
Draw -1
22.1%
@ 3.81-1.6%
Lokomotiv +1
51.8%
@ 1.86+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.18
Draw
Marathonbet
3.82
Superbet
3.80
Away
Marathonbet
1.94
Superbet
1.78
Handicap +1 (CSKA Moscow)Actual: CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow +1
75.1%
@ 1.27+3.4%
Draw +1
14.8%
@ 5.55-1.7%
Lokomotiv -1
10.1%
@ 7.70-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Draw
Marathonbet
5.85
Superbet
5.25
Away
Marathonbet
8.70
Superbet
6.70
Handicap +2 (CSKA Moscow)Actual: CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow +2
89.9%
Draw +2
7.1%
Lokomotiv -2
3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSKA Moscow
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.50
0.62
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (21)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.93
0.50
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.62
0.83
0.67
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.60
1.14
0.43
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Moscow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.0%
@ 1.32-2.9%
Under 0.5
32.0%
@ 3.23+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.29
Superbet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.3%
@ 2.52-3.1%
Under 1.5
65.7%
@ 1.50+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
1xBet
2.54
Marathonbet
2.54
Superbet
2.40
Under
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.8%
@ 5.90-3.9%
Under 2.5
88.2%
@ 1.10+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
6.10
Superbet
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSKA Moscow over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.8%
@ 1.74-4.9%
Under
51.2%
@ 2.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
1xBet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
CSKA Moscow over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 4.63-4.4%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.15+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Under
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
CSKA Moscow over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 13.00-3.4%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Under
Superbet
1.02
Lokomotiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.1%
@ 2.28-3.9%
Under
62.9%
@ 1.58+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.39
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.26
Superbet
2.17
Under
Superbet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.59
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.55
Lokomotiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 7.93-3.6%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.04+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.00
1xBet
7.80
Superbet
7.00
Under
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Lokomotiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 25.00-98.4%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSKA Moscow
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
0.94
0.38
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.12
2.00
1.00
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (21)
0.81
0.29
0.75
0.08
0.89
0.56
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.57
0.36
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.92
0.67
0.33
0.57
1.43
vs Weaker (15)
0.53
0.53
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Moscow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.1%
Under 0.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.1%
Under 1.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.6%
Under 2.5
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSKA Moscow over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Moscow over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Moscow over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.7%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.9%
1.03
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.04
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.6%
1.05
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.6%
1.07
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.5%
1.14
Pinnacle
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.5%
1.15
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
80.5%
1.16
Marathonbet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
-
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
77.4%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
-
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.3%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.2%
1.32
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.1%
1.26
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
SBO
1.21
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.1%
1.27
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
74.0%
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.1%
1.27
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.27
SBO
1.20
-
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
72.1%
1.41
1xBet
1.41
-
-
-
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.2%
1.43
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
-
+5.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
CSKA Moscow
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luciano Gondou33%
Henrique Carmo25%
Matheus Alves20%
Ivan Oblyakov17%
Kirill Danilov17%
Kirill Glebov17%
Matija Popović17%
Milan Gajić0%
Dmitriy Barinov0%
Moisés0%
João Victor0%
Danil Krugovoy0%
Vladislav Torop0%
Tamerlan Musaev0%
Danila Kozlov0%
Matvey Kislyak0%
Imran Firov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luciano Gondou33%
Imran Firov25%
Matheus Alves20%
João Victor17%
Vladislav Torop17%
Kirill Danilov17%
Milan Gajić0%
Dmitriy Barinov0%
Ivan Oblyakov0%
Moisés0%
Danil Krugovoy0%
Tamerlan Musaev0%
Kirill Glebov0%
Danila Kozlov0%
Matvey Kislyak0%
Matija Popović0%
Henrique Carmo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Milan Gajić25%
Matheus Alves20%
Danil Krugovoy17%
Luciano Gondou17%
Kirill Glebov17%
Matvey Kislyak17%
Dmitriy Barinov0%
Ivan Oblyakov0%
Moisés0%
João Victor0%
Vladislav Torop0%
Tamerlan Musaev0%
Kirill Danilov0%
Danila Kozlov0%
Imran Firov0%
Matija Popović0%
Henrique Carmo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luciano Gondou33%
Ivan Oblyakov17%
Kirill Danilov17%
Matija Popović17%
Milan Gajić0%
Dmitriy Barinov0%
Moisés0%
João Victor0%
Danil Krugovoy0%
Vladislav Torop0%
Tamerlan Musaev0%
Kirill Glebov0%
Danila Kozlov0%
Matvey Kislyak0%
Matheus Alves0%
Imran Firov0%
Henrique Carmo0%
Lokomotiv
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aleksey Batrakov25%
Zelimkhan Bakaev17%
Aleksandr Silyanov17%
Sergey Pinyaev17%
Vadim Rakov17%
Georgi Dzhikiya0%
Gerzino Nyamsi0%
Maksim Nenakhov0%
Aleksandr Rudenko0%
Ilya Lantratov0%
Anton Mitryushkin0%
Evgeniy Morozov0%
Lucas Fasson0%
Artem Karpukas0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nikita Saltykov0%
Ilya Eremeev0%
Vladislav Golubev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksey Batrakov75%
Gerzino Nyamsi40%
Maksim Nenakhov33%
Ilya Lantratov33%
Vladislav Golubev25%
Ilya Eremeev20%
Zelimkhan Bakaev17%
Lucas Fasson17%
Vadim Rakov17%
Georgi Dzhikiya0%
Aleksandr Rudenko0%
Anton Mitryushkin0%
Aleksandr Silyanov0%
Evgeniy Morozov0%
Sergey Pinyaev0%
Artem Karpukas0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nikita Saltykov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksey Batrakov25%
Zelimkhan Bakaev17%
Aleksandr Silyanov17%
Vadim Rakov17%
Georgi Dzhikiya0%
Gerzino Nyamsi0%
Maksim Nenakhov0%
Aleksandr Rudenko0%
Ilya Lantratov0%
Anton Mitryushkin0%
Evgeniy Morozov0%
Sergey Pinyaev0%
Lucas Fasson0%
Artem Karpukas0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nikita Saltykov0%
Ilya Eremeev0%
Vladislav Golubev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gerzino Nyamsi40%
Vadim Rakov33%
Aleksey Batrakov25%
Georgi Dzhikiya0%
Maksim Nenakhov0%
Aleksandr Rudenko0%
Ilya Lantratov0%
Anton Mitryushkin0%
Zelimkhan Bakaev0%
Aleksandr Silyanov0%
Evgeniy Morozov0%
Sergey Pinyaev0%
Lucas Fasson0%
Artem Karpukas0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nikita Saltykov0%
Ilya Eremeev0%
Vladislav Golubev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
CSKA Moscow's squad is €43m more valuable than Lokomotiv's (€111m vs €68m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
FAK (10)
€5m
CSKA Moscow's attack is €16m more valuable than Lokomotiv's (€37m vs €21m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
CSKA Moscow's midfield is €41m more valuable than Lokomotiv's (€48m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
AKH (10)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
CSKA Moscow's defence is €14m less valuable than Lokomotiv's (€26m vs €40m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Akron
Fakel