The contest between Dekani and Beltinci is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home advantage is muted; Dekani’s recent form shows two straight defeats and a 0-2 loss to Jesenice, while Beltinci comes off a 4-0 victory over Primorje. Dekani averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded at home against stronger opposition, whereas Beltinci, playing away against weaker teams, scores 1.7 and concedes only 0.6. The expected total of 3.0 goals aligns with a 2-goal total probability of 23 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.1 % chance. Home win probability sits at 34 %, draw at 26 %, and away win at 40 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.7 %), Under 6.5 (96.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (92.1 %), Under 5.5 (91.2 %), Away +2 handicap (83.9 %), Home under 2.5 goals (82.2 %), and Over 1.5 (81.8 %). Each selection carries its own probability, reflecting the model’s nuanced assessment of this closely contested match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dekani win
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Beltinci win
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dekani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.47
1.87
1.53
0.47
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.00
1.50
2.00
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.19
1.33
2.11
1.44
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beltinci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.83
2.27
0.87
1.53
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.90
0.67
2.25
0.67
1.44
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
1.22
2.33
1.67
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.6%
Under 2.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.3%
Under 3.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.7%
No
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.4%
2-2
6.6%
0-1
5.8%
1-0
5.8%
0-0
5.4%
0-2
5.3%
Dekani goals ↓
Beltinci goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
5.8%
5.3%
2.8%
1.1%
1
5.8%
12%
8.4%
4.4%
1.7%
2
5.3%
8.4%
6.6%
3.4%
1.3%
3
2.8%
4.4%
3.4%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.1%
1.7%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dekani goals (down), columns = Beltinci goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Dekani is 0.90 points worse than Beltinci in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Dekani is 0.50 goals worse than Beltinci in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Dekani is 0.70 goals worse than Beltinci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dekani or Draw
62.9%
Avg Implied -
37%
26%
37%
covers Dekani + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dekani or Beltinci
74.2%
Avg Implied -
37%
26%
37%
covers Dekani + Beltinci
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Beltinci
62.9%
Avg Implied -
37%
26%
37%
covers Draw + Beltinci
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dekani over/under 0.5
Over
79.1%
Under
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5
Over
46.4%
Under
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 0.5
Over
79.1%
Under
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dekani, so a minus line means Dekani give that many goals of a start and Beltinci receive them. At -1, Dekani must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dekani win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dekani)
Dekani -2
7.4%
Draw -2
11.3%
Beltinci +2
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dekani)
Dekani -1
18.7%
Draw -1
18.4%
Beltinci +1
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dekani)
Dekani +1
62.9%
Draw +1
18.4%
Beltinci -1
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dekani)
Dekani +2
81.3%
Draw +2
11.3%
Beltinci -2
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dekani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
1.07
1.00
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.86
1.33
1.11
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beltinci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
1.13
0.53
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.29
1.17
0.42
0.78
0.11
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
Under 0.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.9%
Under 1.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.6%
Under 2.5
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dekani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.5%
Under
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dekani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.80
0.53
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.29
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.48
0.78
0.33
0.25
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beltinci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.13
0.33
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.38
1.08
0.25
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.56
1.33
0.67
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.0%
Under 0.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.8%
Under 1.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.3%
Under 2.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dekani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Dekani and Beltinci have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Dekani and Beltinci have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Dekani and Beltinci have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Dekani and Beltinci have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja