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Dekani vs Ilirija Prediction & Stats

Date: 26/09/2026
Time: 22:00
Dekani
Dekani
Vs
40%
25%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Dekani’s recent form, still rattled by two straight defeats, suggests a cautious start, yet their home average of 2.38 goals and 1.5 conceded points to a potent attack. Ilirija, riding a three-game winning streak, averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on the road, hinting at a balanced but slightly less prolific side. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and the most likely total number of goals being three, at a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.9% chance. Home win is the favored outcome, with a 39% chance, draw 25%, and away win 36%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.9%), Under 6.5 (94.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.8%), Under 5.5 (88.0%), Over 1.5 (85.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (81.6%), and Home +2 handicap (81.4%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dekani win
40.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ilirija win
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DekaniDekani

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L11D02L51W22D43W30W01L02L00DA·BEL25/04H·BRI29/04A·TRI06/05H·SLO10/05A·RUD15/05H·KRK23/05H·SLO08/08A·PRI15/08H·JES21/08A·KRŠ29/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.471.871.530.471.40
vs Stronger (7)1.002.001.502.000.332.00
vs Similar (21)1.191.332.111.440.501.25
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.501.00--
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-641W02L12L10W01L13L10W60W20W12LA·KRK24/04H·NAF30/04A·DRA06/05H·BIL09/05A·GOR15/05H·BEL22/05H·DRA09/08A·BIS15/08H·RUD22/08A·SLO28/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.531.401.471.531.60
vs Stronger (6)0.831.670.501.501.001.75
vs Similar (23)1.611.571.501.581.731.55
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.6%
Under 2.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.6%
Under 3.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.6%
No
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.4%
1-0
5.2%
3-1
4.9%
0-1
4.7%
Dekani goals ↓
Ilirija goals →
01234
04.6%4.7%4.6%2.4%1.0%
15.2%11%7.9%4.2%1.7%
25.4%8.6%6.9%3.7%1.5%
33.1%4.9%4.0%2.1%0.8%
41.3%2.1%1.7%0.9%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dekani goals (down), columns = Ilirija goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Dekani is 0.20 points better than Ilirija in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 0.90).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Dekani is 0.07 goals better than Ilirija in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.27).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Dekani is 0.20 goals better than Ilirija in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.73).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dekani or Draw
65.1%
Avg Implied -
40%
25%
35%
covers Dekani + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dekani or Ilirija
75.2%
Avg Implied -
40%
25%
35%
covers Dekani + Ilirija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ilirija
59.7%
Avg Implied -
40%
25%
35%
covers Draw + Ilirija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dekani over/under 0.5
Over
82.3%
Under
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5
Over
51.6%
Under
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5
Over
25.0%
Under
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 3.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5
Over
79.8%
Under
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 3.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Dekani, so a minus line means Dekani give that many goals of a start and Ilirija receive them. At -1, Dekani must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dekani win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dekani)
Dekani -2
9.2%
Draw -2
12.4%
Ilirija +2
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dekani)
Dekani -1
21.5%
Draw -1
18.8%
Ilirija +1
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dekani)
Dekani +1
65.1%
Draw +1
17.3%
Ilirija -1
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dekani)
Dekani +2
82.4%
Draw +2
10.6%
Ilirija -2
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DekaniDekani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L01L41W11D13L20W01L01L00DA·BEL25/04H·BRI29/04A·TRI06/05H·SLO10/05A·RUD15/05H·KRK23/05H·SLO08/08A·PRI15/08H·JES21/08A·KRŠ29/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.801.071.000.200.60
vs Stronger (7)0.570.711.001.000.000.33
vs Similar (21)0.710.861.331.110.250.67
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.000.50--
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W02L10W00D01L13L00D20W10W12LA·KRK24/04H·NAF30/04A·DRA06/05H·BIL09/05A·GOR15/05H·BEL22/05H·DRA09/08A·BIS15/08H·RUD22/08A·SLO28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.900.400.800.871.00
vs Stronger (6)0.501.000.501.000.501.00
vs Similar (23)0.650.910.330.831.001.00
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dekani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DekaniDekani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W01L10W11D30W10W00D01L00DA·BEL25/04H·BRI29/04A·TRI06/05H·SLO10/05A·RUD15/05H·KRK23/05H·SLO08/08A·PRI15/08H·JES21/08A·KRŠ29/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.670.800.530.270.80
vs Stronger (7)0.431.290.501.000.331.67
vs Similar (21)0.480.480.780.330.250.58
vs Weaker (2)1.500.501.500.50--
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D02L10W00D00D10W40W10W00DA·KRK24/04H·NAF30/04A·DRA06/05H·BIL09/05A·GOR15/05H·BEL22/05H·DRA09/08A·BIS15/08H·RUD22/08A·SLO28/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.631.000.670.670.60
vs Stronger (6)0.330.670.000.500.500.75
vs Similar (23)0.960.651.170.750.730.55
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dekani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.9%-------
Under 6.594.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals92.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals90.2%-------
Under 5.587.9%-------
Over 1.585.5%-------
Home +2 handicap82.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals82.3%-------
Away over 0.5 goals79.8%-------
Away +2 handicap78.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals78.3%-------
Under 4.575.7%-------
Home or Away75.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals75.0%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Dekani and Ilirija have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Dekani and Ilirija have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Dekani and Ilirija have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Dekani and Ilirija have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
DEK wins
4
Draws
1
ILI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dekani vs Ilirija · H/A from DEK
DateH/AGameScore
20/03/26AIlirija Vs DEK2-2
06/09/25HDEK Vs Ilirija3-1
12/04/25AIlirija Vs DEK1-2
28/09/24HDEK Vs Ilirija0-0
02/03/24HDEK Vs Ilirija0-0
13/08/23AIlirija Vs DEK1-0
08/04/23HDEK Vs Ilirija1-0
24/09/22AIlirija Vs DEK0-0

DekaniDekani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AKrško Vs DEK0-0
21/08/26HDEK Vs Jesenice0-2
15/08/26APrimorje Vs DEK1-0
08/08/26HDEK Vs Slovan Ljubljana3-0
23/05/26HDEK Vs Krka4-3
15/05/26ARudar Vs DEK2-2
10/05/26HDEK Vs Slovan Ljubljana5-1
06/05/26ATriglav Vs DEK2-0
29/04/26HDEK Vs Brinje-Grosuplje1-1
25/04/26ABeltinci Vs DEK2-0

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26ASlovan Ljubljana Vs ILI2-1
22/08/26HILI Vs Rudar2-0
15/08/26ABistrica Vs ILI0-6
09/08/26HILI Vs Dravinja1-0
22/05/26HILI Vs Beltinci1-3
15/05/26AGorica Vs ILI1-0
09/05/26HILI Vs Bilje1-0
06/05/26ADravinja Vs ILI2-1
30/04/26HILI Vs Nafta0-2
24/04/26AKrka Vs ILI1-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dekani
Dekani
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLD0.96
HomeDWWWL1.26
AwayLLDLD0.70
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%39%11%
AVG goals3.023.702.44
Over 1.5 %78%91%67%
Over 2.5 %56%74%41%
Over 3.5 %32%39%26%
Scored1.201.780.70
Conceded1.821.911.74
BTTS52%61%44%
Clean Sheet18%17%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL0.98
HomeLWLWW1.08
AwayWLLWL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%25%19%
AVG goals2.762.792.73
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %30%29%31%
Scored1.241.171.31
Conceded1.521.621.42
BTTS64%62%65%
Clean Sheet24%25%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana412
100%
3.0
110+11
2.8
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.80.0
-
2IlirijaIlirija49
75%
2.2
102+8
3.0
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1002.50.5
-
3Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana49
75%
2.2
87+1
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
4JeseniceJesenice47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.2
-
5BistricaBistrica47
50%
1.8
67-1
3.2
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
6TriglavTriglav36
67%
2.0
52+3
2.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.7
-
7BeltinciBeltinci46
50%
1.5
86+2
3.5
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.01.5
-
8RudarRudar46
50%
1.5
75+2
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.81.2
-
9Dren VrhnikaDren Vrhnika46
50%
1.5
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10BiljeBilje46
50%
1.5
710-3
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.82.5
-
11PrimorjePrimorje46
50%
1.5
58-3
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
12KrškoKrško45
25%
1.2
38-5
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
13DekaniDekani44
25%
1.0
33+0
1.5
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.80.8
-
14KrkaKrka41
0%
0.2
49-5
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.02.2
-
15BrežiceBrežice30
0%
0.0
25-3
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
16DravinjaDravinja40
0%
0.0
210-8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.52.5
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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