Dekani are coming off a win, having beaten Krka 4-3, and face Slovan Ljubljana on home turf. The model predicts a home win, favouring Dekani to take the three points with a 56% probability. A draw is seen as a 23% possibility, while Slovan Ljubljana's chances of a win are estimated at 21%. The expected number of goals is 3.2, with the most likely total being 3 goals.
The most likely score is 1-1, occurring with a 10.5% probability. Dekani have a strong home form, scoring an average of 2.5 goals and conceding 1.62, while facing opponents of similar strength. In contrast, Slovan Ljubljana have struggled on the road, scoring 0.89 goals and conceding 1.89, when facing similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Over 1.5, with an 84.5% probability. This selection holds a 14% edge, suggesting a significant advantage in this prediction. The home win percentage is 56%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 21%.
Results analysis
The win extends Dekani's run of form, having now won two games in a row. The final score read 3-0 in favour of Dekani, which also turned out to be the actual result. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 56%. The model's call was also in line with the pre-match favourite, Dekani, who were expected to win. The model's selection of Dekani to win also led to a suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, which hit, coming in at 84.5%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dekani win✓ Hit
56.4%
Avg Implied 51.5% · @ 1.75
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.90
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Dafabet
1.81
10Bet
1.75
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.44
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.59
10Bet
3.55
1xBet
3.54
Betfair
3.50
Slovan Ljubljana win✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.02
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Bet365
4.20
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dekani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.53
1.93
1.53
0.73
1.53
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
1.88
1.50
2.00
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.45
2.00
1.50
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slovan Ljubljana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.73
1.27
1.60
0.87
1.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
2.30
0.60
2.80
0.60
1.80
vs Similar (18)
1.22
1.50
1.67
1.11
0.78
1.89
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.5%
@ 1.25+12.8%
Under 1.5
15.5%
@ 3.18-12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.24
Under
Marathonbet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
1xBet
3.34
Superbet
3.20
Unibet
3.05
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.0%
@ 1.86+13.9%
Under 2.5
37.0%
@ 1.80-13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
Unibet
1.92
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.90
10Bet
1.85
Under
Marathonbet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Superbet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.8%
@ 3.02+11.1%
Under 3.5
59.2%
@ 1.28-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.30
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.04
Betano
2.95
Under
Marathonbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.7%
@ 1.74+9.9%
No
38.3%
@ 1.87-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.76
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.75
No
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
William Hil
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%@ 6.42+3.9%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.83+4.4%
2-0
8.2%@ 7.83+2.8%
1-0
7.0%@ 6.42+0.5%
3-1
6.7%@ 13.00+3.5%
2-2
5.8%@ 13.83+2.8%
1-2
5.7%@ 12.50+2.3%
3-0 ✓
5.6%@ 13.33+2.5%
Dekani goals ↓
Slovan Ljubljana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
3.7%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
1
7.0%
10%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.8%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.6%
6.7%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.9%
3.5%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dekani goals (down), columns = Slovan Ljubljana goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Dekani is 0.03 points better than Slovan Ljubljana in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Dekani is 0.27 goals better than Slovan Ljubljana in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Dekani is 0.20 goals better than Slovan Ljubljana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.73).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dekani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
1.00
1.00
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.62
1.00
1.00
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.90
1.10
1.10
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slovan Ljubljana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.87
0.47
0.80
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.30
0.00
1.40
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.56
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dekani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dekani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.93
0.53
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.55
0.90
0.40
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slovan Ljubljana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.80
0.80
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.00
0.60
1.40
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.83
1.00
0.56
0.44
1.11
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dekani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Ljubljana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.5%
1.25
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.24
+12.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Dekani and Slovan Ljubljana have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Dekani and Slovan Ljubljana have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Dekani and Slovan Ljubljana have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Dekani and Slovan Ljubljana have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Beltinci
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja