Dekani vs Tabor Sežana Result & Analysis

Dekani are tipped to win, the model favouring a home victory with a 48% chance, while a draw sits at 28% and an away win at 24%. The expected total goals hover around 2.6, with the most likely total being two goals, a 26% probability. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, carrying a 13.3% chance. Dekani’s home form shows they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against opponents of similar strength, whereas Tabor Sežana, on the road, averages only 0.77 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 at 74.4% and Under 3.5 at 73.6%. Dekani’s recent five matches include a draw and two wins, while Tabor Sežana are on a five-game winning streak. These figures outline a tight contest where Dekani’s home advantage and balanced attack and defense give them the edge.

The upset was stark: Dekani’s home form, a draw in their last match, was eclipsed by Tabor Sežana’s five-game winning streak, yet the pre-match favourite, Home win, with a 48% probability, failed to materialise. The final score was 0-1, an away win that left the model’s pick wrong. The model’s selection Over 1.5, at 74.4%, missed, while Under 3.5, at 73.6%, hit. Tabor Sežana’s victory extended their run, and the match’s total of one goal fell well below the expected 2.6, confirming the model’s under-prediction of scoring.