In this Eerste Divisie match, Den Bosch is expected to emerge victorious, following a recent storyline of coming off a defeat. The model predicts a 43% chance of a home win, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 30% chance of an away win. The overall shape of the match suggests a closely contested encounter, with an expected total of 2.9 goals.
The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 12.7%. Den Bosch has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.22 goals and conceding 1.22 goals against similar opponents. FC Eindhoven has also faced similar opponents on the road, scoring 1.3 goals and conceding 2.1 goals.
The model's selection for the match result is a home win. The suggested picks include an over 1.5 goals model selection with a 79.2% probability, a home or draw model selection with a 75.2% probability and 3% edge, a home or away model selection with a 74% probability, and an over 9.5 corners model selection with a 70.4% probability. The home win percentage is 43, the draw percentage is 27, and the away win percentage is 30.
Results analysis
Den Bosch’s recent win extends their run, while FC Eindhoven come off two defeats. The final score of 5-2 was a home win, far exceeding the model’s expected total of 2.9 and its most likely 2-goal outcome. The pre-match favourite was a Home win with a 45% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections performed as follows: Under 7.5 hit at 99.0%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.4%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.9%, and Home +2 handicap hit at 89.7%. The Under 6.5, Home under 2.5 HT goals, Under 5.5, and Home under 3.5 goals all missed, with probabilities of 97.2%, 96.9%, 92.7%, and 90.3% respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Den Bosch win✓ Hit
45.3%
Avg Implied 42.2% · @ 2.20
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.35
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.70
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.85
Betfair
3.80
888Sport
3.80
William Hil
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
FC Eindhoven win✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 32.8% · @ 2.83
Edge
-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.35
Unibet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.94
SBO
2.91
Dafabet
2.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Den Bosch
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.83
1.56
1.50
1.64
2.21
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.25
1.00
2.33
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.64
1.80
1.67
1.33
1.62
2.23
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Eindhoven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.73
1.87
1.73
1.27
1.73
vs Stronger (6)
2.00
1.17
3.50
1.00
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (24)
1.46
1.88
1.62
1.85
1.27
1.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Den Bosch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
@ 1.12-3.3%
Under 1.5
20.4%
@ 5.48+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Under
Betfair
6.00
888Sport
6.00
Pinnacle
5.88
BetVictor
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.3%
@ 1.44-9.0%
Under 2.5
44.7%
@ 2.61+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.47
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Under
888Sport
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
BetVictor
2.70
Betfair
2.70
Marathonbet
2.59
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.0%
@ 2.12-11.1%
Under 3.5
67.0%
@ 1.67+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
888Sport
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.8%
@ 1.40-7.3%
No
41.2%
@ 2.73+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
No
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.86
Marathonbet
2.80
Superbet
2.72
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 7.43+6.4%
2-1
9.3%@ 8.48+4.0%
1-0
7.9%@ 11.65+4.0%
2-0
7.4%@ 13.10+4.0%
1-2
7.1%@ 10.01+2.6%
0-0
6.7%@ 16.26+3.9%
2-2
5.9%@ 10.21+1.4%
0-1
5.8%@ 13.20+2.3%
Den Bosch goals ↓
FC Eindhoven goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
5.8%
4.4%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.9%
13%
7.1%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.3%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.1%
5.1%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.7%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Den Bosch goals (down), columns = FC Eindhoven goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Den Bosch is 0.04 points better than FC Eindhoven in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Den Bosch is 0.33 goals better than FC Eindhoven in terms of goals scored per game (1.68 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Den Bosch is 0.06 goals worse than FC Eindhoven in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.82).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Den Bosch is 3.6 percentage points better than FC Eindhoven in terms of average possession (47% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Den Bosch
For 4.0 · Against 6.8 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 11.8 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Eindhoven
For 5.3 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 10.3 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Den Bosch
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.1
11.9
12.4
3.5
3.3
3.6
23.5
22.2
25.0
vs Stronger (8)
12.4
11.8
13.3
2.4
2.2
2.7
22.8
23.0
22.3
vs Similar (41)
12.0
11.7
12.2
3.7
3.6
3.7
23.8
22.3
25.4
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
15.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
% over line
77%
80%
73%
44%
42%
46%
64%
56%
73%
% under line
23%
20%
27%
56%
58%
54%
36%
44%
27%
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Eindhoven
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
8.9
12.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
22.7
23.0
22.3
vs Stronger (9)
8.8
9.8
8.0
2.7
3.5
2.0
24.1
24.0
24.2
vs Similar (41)
10.8
8.8
13.1
3.1
3.0
3.3
22.4
22.9
21.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
44%
71%
34%
36%
32%
59%
64%
54%
% under line
43%
56%
29%
66%
64%
68%
41%
36%
46%
This opponent (Den Bosch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
Dordrecht
11.7
De Graafschap
11.7
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong AZ
10.6
FC Volendam
10.5
Emmen
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Eindhoven
10.4
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.2
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.9
Vitesse
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.4
Dordrecht
4.2
FC OSS
4.2
Jong Ajax
3.9
Emmen
3.8
NAC Breda
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
Heracles
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.4
Roda
3.3
FC Volendam
3.3
Waalwijk
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
De Graafschap
3.2
MVV
3.1
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.2
Vitesse
27.0
Emmen
26.0
Helmond Sport
25.9
Jong Utrecht
25.7
Dordrecht
25.5
Roda
25.1
Jong Ajax
25.0
Heracles
24.3
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.4
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.7
MVV
22.6
De Graafschap
22.6
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.1
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
71.3%
@ 1.49+9.5%
Under 9.5
28.7%
@ 2.41-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.49
Under
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.47
Superbet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.34
Marathonbet
2.34
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.7%
Under 3.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
60.3%
Under 21.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Den Bosch or Draw✓ Hit
75.2%
Avg Implied 67.6% · @ 1.38
Edge
+7.6%
45%
27%
28%
covers Den Bosch + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
William Hil
1.44
888Sport
1.44
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Den Bosch or FC Eindhoven✓ Hit
74.0%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.24
Edge
-1.4%
45%
27%
28%
covers Den Bosch + FC Eindhoven
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Draw or FC Eindhoven✗ Miss
50.8%
Avg Implied 57.0% · @ 1.64
Edge
-6.2%
45%
27%
28%
covers Draw + FC Eindhoven
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.80
SBO
1.79
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.65
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Den Bosch over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.1%
@ 1.14+0.6%
Under
17.9%
@ 5.00-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Den Bosch over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
51.4%
@ 1.73-2.3%
Under
48.6%
@ 2.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
Superbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.06
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Betfair
2.00
Den Bosch over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
24.9%
@ 3.28-3.4%
Under
75.1%
@ 1.29+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Betano
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
888Sport
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Den Bosch over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
9.7%
@ 6.98-3.7%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.08+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
888Sport
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.07
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.9%
@ 1.20-8.3%
Under
31.1%
@ 4.07+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Under
888Sport
4.50
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.20
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
32.6%
@ 2.01-13.8%
Under
67.4%
@ 1.74+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Under
888Sport
1.83
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
BetVictor
1.78
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.4%
@ 4.21-10.7%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.19+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.35
Pinnacle
4.27
BetVictor
4.10
Under
Betano
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
FC Eindhoven over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 9.56-6.8%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.05+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
9.50
888Sport
9.00
Superbet
8.60
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Den Bosch, so a minus line means Den Bosch give that many goals of a start and FC Eindhoven receive them. At -1, Den Bosch must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Den Bosch win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Den Bosch)Actual: Den Bosch
Den Bosch -2
12.0%
@ 7.47-0.0%
Draw -2
15.3%
@ 6.13+0.7%
FC Eindhoven +2
72.7%
@ 1.22-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.30
Unibet
6.75
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Superbet
6.00
Unibet
5.60
Away
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
Handicap -1 (Den Bosch)Actual: Den Bosch
Den Bosch -1
27.3%
@ 3.72+3.2%
Draw -1
21.9%
@ 4.15+0.3%
FC Eindhoven +1
50.8%
@ 1.66-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.76
Unibet
3.45
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.30
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.20
10Bet
3.85
Away
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Handicap +1 (Den Bosch)Actual: Den Bosch
Den Bosch +1
75.2%
@ 1.37+9.7%
Draw +1
14.5%
@ 4.95-3.7%
FC Eindhoven -1
10.3%
@ 5.53-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Unibet
1.34
Draw
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.70
Away
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
Handicap +2 (Den Bosch)Actual: Den Bosch
Den Bosch +2
89.7%
@ 1.12+8.2%
Draw +2
7.1%
@ 8.50-3.7%
FC Eindhoven -2
3.2%
@ 12.00-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Away
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Den Bosch
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.81
0.56
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.33
1.67
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.64
0.92
0.25
0.54
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Eindhoven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.87
0.60
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.50
2.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.67
0.62
0.62
0.82
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Den Bosch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.1%
@ 1.23-5.0%
Under 0.5
29.9%
@ 3.72+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
William Hil
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Marathonbet
3.60
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.3%
@ 2.11-11.9%
Under 1.5
67.7%
@ 1.66+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
BetVictor
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
William Hil
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Superbet
1.67
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 4.53-9.6%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.16+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
4.80
Betano
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Under
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Unibet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Den Bosch over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.5%
@ 1.68-7.7%
Under
52.5%
@ 2.07+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.15
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.02
Den Bosch over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
13.7%
@ 4.39-7.5%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.18+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.50
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.00
Under
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Den Bosch over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
3.1%
@ 11.00-5.5%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Under
10Bet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.3%
@ 1.88-10.2%
Under
60.7%
@ 1.84+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
1.88
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 5.51-6.0%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.12+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.15
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.08
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 16.67-4.1%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Den Bosch
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.10
0.75
0.94
1.07
1.29
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
1.16
0.75
1.08
1.08
1.23
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Eindhoven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.10
1.00
1.13
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.75
vs Similar (24)
0.75
1.21
1.00
1.23
0.45
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Den Bosch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Den Bosch over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Den Bosch over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Den Bosch over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Superbet
1.02
+4.6%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.03
10Bet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
1.05
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.7%
1.10
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
+7.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
90.3%
1.08
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.07
+3.7%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
89.7%
1.12
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.16
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Unibet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
+9.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.08
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.6%
1.19
Betano
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
+10.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.3%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+7.5%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
83.3%
1.26
888Sport
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+9.7%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
82.1%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.14
888Sport
1.14
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
81.1%
1.27
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
+9.4%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.6%
1.12
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.2%
1.38
Betano
1.47
William Hil
1.44
888Sport
1.44
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.2%
1.37
Superbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Unibet
1.34
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
75.1%
1.29
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
888Sport
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.0%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
72.7%
1.22
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
-0.7%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
71.3%
1.49
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.49
+9.5%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
1.23
Betano
1.28
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
-5.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Den Bosch
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sebastian Karlsson Grach50%
Kévin Monzialo25%
Ilias Boumassaoudi25%
Devon De Corte25%
Sheddy Barglan25%
Kevin Felida0%
Jeffrey Fortes0%
Jasper Van Heertum0%
Stan Maas0%
Pepijn van de Merbel0%
Mees Laros0%
Bohao Wang0%
Hessel Eikelboom0%
Rafi Wolters0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kevin Felida50%
Jeffrey Fortes0%
Jasper Van Heertum0%
Kévin Monzialo0%
Stan Maas0%
Pepijn van de Merbel0%
Sebastian Karlsson Grach0%
Ilias Boumassaoudi0%
Mees Laros0%
Bohao Wang0%
Devon De Corte0%
Hessel Eikelboom0%
Rafi Wolters0%
Sheddy Barglan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kévin Monzialo50%
Mees Laros25%
Devon De Corte25%
Sheddy Barglan25%
Kevin Felida0%
Jeffrey Fortes0%
Jasper Van Heertum0%
Stan Maas0%
Pepijn van de Merbel0%
Sebastian Karlsson Grach0%
Ilias Boumassaoudi0%
Bohao Wang0%
Hessel Eikelboom0%
Rafi Wolters0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sebastian Karlsson Grach50%
Kévin Monzialo25%
Ilias Boumassaoudi25%
Kevin Felida0%
Jeffrey Fortes0%
Jasper Van Heertum0%
Stan Maas0%
Pepijn van de Merbel0%
Mees Laros0%
Bohao Wang0%
Devon De Corte0%
Hessel Eikelboom0%
Rafi Wolters0%
Sheddy Barglan0%
FC Eindhoven
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Owen Renfrum25%
Siegert Baartmans25%
Mika de Jonge25%
Clint Essers0%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Guus Beaumont0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Niek Munsters0%
Luc Netten0%
Rens Boon0%
Amir Bryson0%
Emre Eksi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rens Boon33%
Clint Essers25%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Guus Beaumont0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Niek Munsters0%
Luc Netten0%
Amir Bryson0%
Owen Renfrum0%
Siegert Baartmans0%
Mika de Jonge0%
Emre Eksi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Guus Beaumont50%
Niek Munsters33%
Mika de Jonge25%
Clint Essers0%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Luc Netten0%
Rens Boon0%
Amir Bryson0%
Owen Renfrum0%
Siegert Baartmans0%
Emre Eksi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mika de Jonge25%
Clint Essers0%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Guus Beaumont0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Niek Munsters0%
Luc Netten0%
Rens Boon0%
Amir Bryson0%
Owen Renfrum0%
Siegert Baartmans0%
Emre Eksi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Den Bosch's squad is €2m more valuable than FC Eindhoven's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Den Bosch's attack is €1m more valuable than FC Eindhoven's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht