The match between Dender and Beerschot VA in the Belgium: Challenger Pro League is finely balanced, with the away team Beerschot VA holding a slight edge. Beerschot VA is the model's selection for the match result, with a 37% chance of winning. The model also predicts a 34% chance of a Dender win and a 29% chance of a draw. The expected total goals is 2.6, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.8%.
Dender has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding 2.0 against similar opponents. Beerschot VA, on the other hand, has averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded away from home against similar opponents. The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (82.7%), Over 1.5 (74.4%), and Under 3.5 (73.7%). Dender has a 34% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 37% chance of losing. Beerschot VA has a 37% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 34% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Dender edged Beerschot VA 2-0, a result that overturned the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win, which had a 37 % probability. The final score of 2-0 gave the home side a win that extended their recent run, while the away team returned to a losing streak after a 0-2 defeat. The model’s selection for the match outcome was therefore wrong. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 at 99.5 %, Under 6.5 at 98.3 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.0 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.4 %, Under 5.5 at 95.1 %, Under 4.5 at 87.8 %, and Home under 2.5 goals at 86.5 %. All probabilities were expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dender win✓ Hit
34.1%
Avg Implied 35.5% · @ 2.56
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.69
Superbet
2.65
Betano
2.65
BetVictor
2.63
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.35
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.72
Dafabet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Marathonbet
3.38
Beerschot VA win✗ Miss
37.0%
Avg Implied 37.3% · @ 2.44
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.56
Unibet
2.55
Dafabet
2.55
Superbet
2.50
Betano
2.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dender
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.77
1.25
2.12
0.93
1.36
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
1.83
1.12
2.12
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.71
1.29
2.14
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Beerschot VA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beerschot VA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.30
1.75
1.31
1.57
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.69
1.42
1.86
1.43
1.50
1.42
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.4%
@ 1.24-0.0%
Under 1.5
25.6%
@ 3.63+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
3.83
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.0%
@ 1.80-3.6%
Under 2.5
52.0%
@ 1.93+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.84
SBO
1.83
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.82
Superbet
1.80
Under
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Betfair
1.95
SBO
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.3%
@ 3.00-4.5%
Under 3.5
73.7%
@ 1.34+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.08
Unibet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.1%
@ 1.64-2.2%
No
45.9%
@ 2.12+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
No
Betfair
2.20
BetVictor
2.15
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.12
William Hil
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 5.89+6.4%
0-0
8.7%@ 10.26+4.5%
0-1
8.7%@ 8.28+3.4%
1-2
8.3%@ 8.62+3.3%
1-0
8.2%@ 8.50+3.1%
2-1
8.0%@ 8.70+3.0%
0-2
6.6%@ 11.72+2.9%
2-0 ✓
6.0%@ 11.92+2.3%
Dender goals ↓
Beerschot VA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
8.7%
6.6%
2.9%
1.0%
1
8.2%
14%
8.3%
3.7%
1.2%
2
6.0%
8.0%
5.3%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.5%
3.4%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dender goals (down), columns = Beerschot VA goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Beerschot VA
2.00
Dender
1.77
Liège
1.66
Patro Eisden
1.59
AS Eupen
1.47
Lokeren-Temse
1.31
KAA Gent II
1.28
K. Lierse S.K.
1.19
Seraing United
1.13
Francs Borains
1.09
Sporting Hasselt
1.01
RSC Anderlecht II
0.97
KRC Genk II
0.97
Excelsior Virton
0.95
Club Brugge II
0.66
Dender is 0.23 points worse than Beerschot VA in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dender
1.82
Beerschot VA
1.62
Lokeren-Temse
1.50
RSC Anderlecht II
1.44
Patro Eisden
1.38
Liège
1.38
AS Eupen
1.38
KAA Gent II
1.31
KRC Genk II
1.31
Seraing United
1.19
K. Lierse S.K.
1.09
Sporting Hasselt
1.04
Club Brugge II
1.03
Francs Borains
1.03
Excelsior Virton
0.97
Dender is 0.19 goals better than Beerschot VA in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beerschot VA
0.97
Dender
1.09
AS Eupen
1.12
Liège
1.22
Patro Eisden
1.25
K. Lierse S.K.
1.31
Seraing United
1.32
Lokeren-Temse
1.41
Francs Borains
1.47
KAA Gent II
1.59
Club Brugge II
1.72
RSC Anderlecht II
1.72
KRC Genk II
1.84
Sporting Hasselt
1.92
Excelsior Virton
2.05
Dender is 0.13 goals worse than Beerschot VA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
KAA Gent II
57%
Club Brugge II
56%
Lokeren-Temse
54%
Beerschot VA
53%
RSC Anderlecht II
52%
KRC Genk II
52%
AS Eupen
51%
K. Lierse S.K.
47%
Francs Borains
45%
Liège
44%
Seraing United
41%
Patro Eisden
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dender
For 4.7 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 8.5 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Beerschot VA
For 5.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 16.3 · Total 27.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dender
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.7
10.3
3.1
2.7
3.6
21.4
21.3
21.5
vs Stronger (22)
9.2
8.9
9.5
2.7
2.1
3.5
20.6
19.0
22.3
vs Similar (27)
9.8
8.6
11.0
3.5
3.4
3.6
22.0
23.1
20.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
30%
61%
42%
38%
46%
48%
48%
48%
% under line
54%
70%
39%
58%
62%
54%
52%
52%
52%
This opponent (Beerschot VA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beerschot VA
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.1
9.8
3.7
3.2
4.3
25.5
25.2
25.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
10.1
10.4
9.8
3.6
3.1
4.2
24.9
25.1
24.8
vs Weaker (7)
8.8
8.0
9.3
4.4
4.0
4.8
29.2
25.5
31.7
% over line
56%
59%
55%
62%
50%
75%
69%
65%
73%
% under line
44%
41%
45%
38%
50%
25%
31%
35%
27%
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lokeren-Temse
10.9
Liège
10.5
Beerschot VA
10.3
KRC Genk II
10.2
Francs Borains
9.7
RSC Anderlecht II
9.7
Dender
9.6
Club Brugge II
9.5
AS Eupen
9.5
KAA Gent II
9.5
K. Lierse S.K.
9.1
Seraing United
9.1
Excelsior Virton
9.0
Patro Eisden
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lokeren-Temse
5.9
K. Lierse S.K.
5.8
Patro Eisden
5.6
Francs Borains
5.5
Seraing United
5.1
Beerschot VA
4.8
AS Eupen
4.7
Liège
4.6
RSC Anderlecht II
4.5
Club Brugge II
4.3
KAA Gent II
4.0
KRC Genk II
3.7
Dender
3.4
Excelsior Virton
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lokeren-Temse
28.5
Patro Eisden
28.2
K. Lierse S.K.
27.7
RSC Anderlecht II
27.2
Club Brugge II
26.9
Francs Borains
26.7
KAA Gent II
26.3
AS Eupen
25.8
Seraing United
25.7
KRC Genk II
25.4
Liège
24.8
Beerschot VA
24.3
Dender
21.2
Excelsior Virton
13.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.6%
@ 1.86-6.4%
Under 9.5
56.4%
@ 1.86+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
Bet365
1.88
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Unibet
1.77
Under
Bet365
1.92
Unibet
1.91
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Superbet
1.77
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
63.5%
Under 3.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
82.1%
Under 21.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dender or Draw✓ Hit
63.0%
Avg Implied 63.2% · @ 1.46
Edge
-0.2%
34%
29%
37%
covers Dender + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.53
Betano
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Dender or Beerschot VA✓ Hit
71.1%
Avg Implied 72.7% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.6%
34%
29%
37%
covers Dender + Beerschot VA
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Draw or Beerschot VA✗ Miss
65.9%
Avg Implied 64.2% · @ 1.44
Edge
+1.7%
34%
29%
37%
covers Draw + Beerschot VA
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.47
SBO
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dender over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.8%
@ 1.27-1.0%
Under
28.2%
@ 3.40+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.51
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Betano
3.35
Dender over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.1%
@ 2.34-3.5%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.54+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.48
BetVictor
2.38
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
Under
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
BetVictor
1.53
Dender over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 5.31-3.9%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.12+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.35
Superbet
5.15
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
Dender over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 12.38-3.7%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Beerschot VA over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
73.5%
@ 1.25-0.5%
Under
26.5%
@ 3.55+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.80
1xBet
3.64
Marathonbet
3.64
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Beerschot VA over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.3%
@ 2.25-2.8%
Under
61.7%
@ 1.58+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.28
Superbet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Superbet
1.57
Beerschot VA over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.0%
@ 5.03-3.5%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.14+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
Superbet
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.95
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Beerschot VA over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 12.12-3.3%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.03+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dender, so a minus line means Dender give that many goals of a start and Beerschot VA receive them. At -1, Dender must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dender win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dender)Actual: Draw
Dender -2
5.2%
@ 9.77-3.7%
Draw -2
10.1%
@ 6.50-3.3%
Beerschot VA +2
84.6%
@ 1.12+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
6.80
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Dender)Actual: Dender
Dender -1
15.4%
@ 5.17-1.7%
Draw -1
18.7%
@ 4.17-2.5%
Beerschot VA +1
65.9%
@ 1.44+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Away
Unibet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.39
Handicap +1 (Dender)Actual: Dender
Dender +1
63.0%
@ 1.47+2.5%
Draw +1
19.7%
@ 4.13-1.8%
Beerschot VA -1
17.3%
@ 4.92-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
Unibet
3.95
Away
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Handicap +2 (Dender)Actual: Dender
Dender +2
82.7%
@ 1.14+5.8%
Draw +2
11.2%
@ 6.38-2.5%
Beerschot VA -2
6.1%
@ 9.28-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
6.35
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dender
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.81
0.94
0.29
0.71
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.00
0.88
1.25
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.71
0.86
0.57
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Beerschot VA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beerschot VA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.69
0.31
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.50
0.71
0.36
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.20
William Hil
3.10
1xBet
3.02
Marathonbet
3.02
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.74
Betano
2.70
Unibet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.15
Under
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dender over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Under
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
Unibet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Dender over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.60
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Dender over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Beerschot VA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Superbet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Beerschot VA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.15
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Beerschot VA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dender
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.44
1.19
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.83
0.25
0.88
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (17)
0.53
1.00
0.43
1.57
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Beerschot VA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beerschot VA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.87
1.06
1.00
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.92
1.14
1.07
0.83
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dender over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beerschot VA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beerschot VA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beerschot VA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.8%
1.11
Pinnacle
1.14
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.5%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.0%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+7.0%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
82.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.6%
1.31
Unibet
1.35
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.27
-
-
+8.8%
-
Over 1.5
74.4%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.7%
1.34
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
-0.5%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.8%
1.27
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.1%
1.27
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
-1.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dender · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruny Nsimba30%
David Toshevski15%
Roman Kvet15%
David Hrnčár11%
Mohamed Berte10%
Jordan Attah Kadiri8%
Desmond Acquah8%
Noah Mbamba6%
Ragnar Oratmangoen6%
Alireza Jahanbakhsh5%
Bryan Goncalves4%
Fabio Ferraro3%
Malcolm Viltard3%
Luc Marijnissen3%
Nathan Rodes0%
Michael Verrips0%
Guillaume Dietsch0%
Gauthier Gallon0%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Joedrick Pupe0%
Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni0%
Kobe Cools0%
Dion Moise Sahi0%
Luc De Fougerolles0%
Krzysztof Koton0%
Benjamin Fredrick0%
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui0%
Bo De Kerf0%
Amine Daali0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aurélien Scheidler25%
Joedrick Pupe25%
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui25%
Alireza Jahanbakhsh24%
Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni23%
Luc De Fougerolles21%
Malcolm Viltard19%
David Toshevski19%
Luc Marijnissen19%
Bryan Goncalves18%
Fabio Ferraro17%
Jordan Attah Kadiri15%
Roman Kvet15%
Benjamin Fredrick14%
Amine Daali14%
Noah Mbamba11%
Kobe Cools11%
Bruny Nsimba10%
Bo De Kerf10%
Desmond Acquah8%
Krzysztof Koton8%
Guillaume Dietsch7%
Gauthier Gallon7%
Mohamed Berte7%
Ragnar Oratmangoen6%
David Hrnčár6%
Nathan Rodes3%
Michael Verrips0%
Dion Moise Sahi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Amine Daali14%
Bruny Nsimba13%
Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni13%
Fabio Ferraro10%
Desmond Acquah8%
Bryan Goncalves7%
Noah Mbamba6%
Alireza Jahanbakhsh5%
Luc De Fougerolles4%
Mohamed Berte3%
Malcolm Viltard3%
Nathan Rodes0%
Michael Verrips0%
Guillaume Dietsch0%
Gauthier Gallon0%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Joedrick Pupe0%
Ragnar Oratmangoen0%
Roman Kvet0%
David Hrnčár0%
Jordan Attah Kadiri0%
Kobe Cools0%
David Toshevski0%
Luc Marijnissen0%
Dion Moise Sahi0%
Krzysztof Koton0%
Benjamin Fredrick0%
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui0%
Bo De Kerf0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aurélien Scheidler25%
Bruny Nsimba17%
Jordan Attah Kadiri15%
Mohamed Berte10%
Alireza Jahanbakhsh10%
Roman Kvet9%
David Hrnčár6%
David Toshevski4%
Fabio Ferraro3%
Nathan Rodes3%
Michael Verrips0%
Guillaume Dietsch0%
Gauthier Gallon0%
Joedrick Pupe0%
Ragnar Oratmangoen0%
Bryan Goncalves0%
Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni0%
Kobe Cools0%
Malcolm Viltard0%
Luc Marijnissen0%
Noah Mbamba0%
Dion Moise Sahi0%
Luc De Fougerolles0%
Desmond Acquah0%
Krzysztof Koton0%
Benjamin Fredrick0%
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui0%
Bo De Kerf0%
Amine Daali0%
Beerschot VA · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D'Margio Wright-Phillips37%
Arnold Vula35%
Ensar Brahić25%
Rajiv Van La Parra17%
Genki Haraguchi15%
Ken Masui15%
Severin Sabri Guendouz12%
Bas Van den Eynden11%
Oscar Vargas10%
Loïc Mbe Soh8%
Brian Plat7%
Glenn Claes4%
Lukas Van Eenoo3%
Colin Dagba0%
Edisson Jordanov0%
Ryan Sanusi0%
Marco Weymans0%
Nick Shinton0%
Nilton Varela0%
Dennis Gyamfi0%
Cyril Khetir0%
Ayouba Kosiah0%
Axl Van Himbeeck0%
Emre Uzun0%
Andres Labie0%
Siviwe Magidigidi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Cyril Khetir50%
Ayouba Kosiah33%
Edisson Jordanov29%
Marco Weymans20%
Loïc Mbe Soh17%
Severin Sabri Guendouz17%
Siviwe Magidigidi17%
Bas Van den Eynden16%
Genki Haraguchi15%
Arnold Vula15%
Ken Masui15%
Lukas Van Eenoo14%
Dennis Gyamfi14%
Rajiv Van La Parra12%
Nick Shinton10%
Nilton Varela10%
Andres Labie9%
Glenn Claes9%
Brian Plat7%
Axl Van Himbeeck6%
Ryan Sanusi5%
D'Margio Wright-Phillips5%
Colin Dagba5%
Emre Uzun0%
Ensar Brahić0%
Oscar Vargas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
D'Margio Wright-Phillips26%
Severin Sabri Guendouz17%
Arnold Vula15%
Colin Dagba15%
Lukas Van Eenoo14%
Edisson Jordanov12%
Oscar Vargas10%
Glenn Claes9%
Ryan Sanusi5%
Rajiv Van La Parra4%
Loïc Mbe Soh0%
Genki Haraguchi0%
Brian Plat0%
Marco Weymans0%
Nick Shinton0%
Nilton Varela0%
Dennis Gyamfi0%
Cyril Khetir0%
Bas Van den Eynden0%
Ken Masui0%
Ayouba Kosiah0%
Axl Van Himbeeck0%
Emre Uzun0%
Andres Labie0%
Ensar Brahić0%
Siviwe Magidigidi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Arnold Vula35%
Ken Masui31%
Rajiv Van La Parra25%
Glenn Claes13%
Bas Van den Eynden11%
Lukas Van Eenoo10%
Severin Sabri Guendouz8%
Genki Haraguchi8%
Ensar Brahić6%
D'Margio Wright-Phillips5%
Brian Plat4%
Colin Dagba0%
Loïc Mbe Soh0%
Edisson Jordanov0%
Ryan Sanusi0%
Marco Weymans0%
Nick Shinton0%
Nilton Varela0%
Dennis Gyamfi0%
Cyril Khetir0%
Ayouba Kosiah0%
Axl Van Himbeeck0%
Emre Uzun0%
Andres Labie0%
Siviwe Magidigidi0%
Oscar Vargas0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (26)
€12m
BV (26)
€9m
DEN (19)
€8m
RAI (19)
€8m
KGI (18)
€7m
PE (25)
€7m
KGI (19)
€6m
KLS (21)
€5m
LOK (16)
€5m
FB (22)
€4m
SU (15)
€3m
SH (8)
€2m
EV (11)
€2m
Dender and Beerschot VA have a similar squad value (both €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (9)
€7m
BV (13)
€4m
RAI (8)
€3m
KGI (9)
€2m
KGI (7)
€2m
LOK (5)
€2m
KLS (7)
€2m
FB (8)
€2m
DEN (4)
€1m
PE (7)
€1m
SU (4)
€1m
EV (4)
€1m
SH (4)
€1m
Dender's attack is €2m less valuable than Beerschot VA's (€1m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DEN (6)
€3m
PE (7)
€2m
AE (9)
€2m
KGI (1)
€2m
RAI (3)
€2m
KGI (4)
€1m
FB (5)
€1m
LOK (3)
€1m
SU (3)
€1m
KLS (3)
€1m
BV (2)
€0m
SH (1)
€0m
EV (1)
€0m
Dender's midfield is €3m more valuable than Beerschot VA's (€3m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BV (11)
€5m
DEN (9)
€4m
PE (11)
€3m
RAI (8)
€3m
AE (8)
€3m
KLS (11)
€3m
KGI (8)
€3m
KGI (8)
€2m
LOK (8)
€2m
FB (9)
€2m
SU (8)
€2m
SH (3)
€1m
EV (6)
€1m
Dender's defence is €1m less valuable than Beerschot VA's (€4m vs €5m).
Belgium: Challenger Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Challenger Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Excelsior Virton
Club Brugge II
Lokeren-Temse
Francs Borains
Sporting Hasselt
K. Lierse S.K.
AS Eupen
Liège
Patro Eisden
KRC Genk II
KAA Gent II
Seraing United
RSC Anderlecht II