The model favours an away win, with Valencia having a 46 % chance of triumph, a 28 % chance of a draw, and a 26 % chance of a Deportivo La Coruña victory. The expected total of goals is 2.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.4 % probability. Deportivo’s home form shows an average of 1.47 goals scored and 1.20 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Valencia’s away form averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8 % with a 6 % edge), Under 6.5 (98.3 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.7 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6 % with a 4 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.3 % with a 4 % edge), Under 5.5 (95.1 % with a 1 % edge), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.2 % with a 2 % edge). The match is expected to be tightly contested, with both sides showing comparable offensive and defensive averages.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Deportivo La Coruna edged Valencia 3-1, overturning the pre-match favourite, an away win that the model had given a 48% chance. The model’s prediction was therefore wrong. The match finished 3-1, a home win that matched the home team’s recent form note of a win extending their run. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.4%, Under 6.5 at 98.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.2%, Under 5.5 at 95.0%, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.8%. The total of 4 goals exceeded the expected 2.6, but all under-goal picks were correct.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Deportivo La Coruna win✓ Hit
24.2%
Avg Implied 37.0% · @ 2.57
Edge
-12.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.69
Pinnacle
2.66
Marathonbet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.60
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 31.7% · @ 3.00
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.04
Superbet
3.00
Valencia win✗ Miss
48.2%
Avg Implied 31.3% · @ 3.04
Edge
+16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.15
1xBet
3.12
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Bet365
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Deportivo La Coruna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.10
1.24
1.24
1.23
0.92
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.27
1.04
1.40
1.13
1.09
0.91
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
0.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valencia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.23
1.27
1.33
1.33
1.13
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.75
1.00
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.30
1.26
1.33
1.25
1.27
1.27
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
-
-
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Deportivo La Coruna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
@ 1.47+10.9%
Under 1.5
25.2%
@ 2.61-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Under
Unibet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.69
Betfair
2.63
Superbet
2.62
10Bet
2.62
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.6%
@ 2.50+10.5%
Under 2.5
51.4%
@ 1.54-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
1xBet
2.57
Betfair
2.55
Superbet
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.60
SBO
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.8%
@ 4.81+7.2%
Under 3.5
73.2%
@ 1.17-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
@ 2.00+6.1%
No
47.3%
@ 1.75-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.07
Bet365
2.05
William Hil
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
No
Betfair
1.80
Unibet
1.79
10Bet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Betano
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 5.50+5.1%
0-1
10.2%@ 7.10+4.0%
1-2
9.4%@ 10.58+5.2%
0-2
9.0%@ 13.25+5.6%
0-0
8.5%@ 6.87+2.0%
1-0
6.4%@ 6.32-0.6%
2-1
6.3%@ 9.53+1.6%
2-2
4.9%@ 15.43+2.1%
Deportivo La Coruna goals ↓
Valencia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
10%
9.0%
4.7%
1.8%
1
6.4%
13%
9.4%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.0%
6.3%
4.9%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.4%
2.2%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Deportivo La Coruna goals (down), columns = Valencia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna is 0.21 points worse than Valencia in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Deportivo La Coruna is 0.15 goals worse than Valencia in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Deportivo La Coruna is 0.27 goals worse than Valencia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Deportivo La Coruna
For 4.3 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 12.5 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Valencia
For 4.6 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 12.2 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Deportivo La Coruna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.6
9.7
4.8
4.4
5.2
23.5
24.7
22.2
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
10.0
-
0.0
0.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
vs Similar (43)
9.3
8.8
9.8
5.2
4.8
5.5
24.2
25.1
23.3
vs Weaker (6)
7.2
5.5
9.0
3.2
2.5
3.5
18.2
23.0
15.0
% over line
44%
32%
57%
72%
64%
80%
69%
76%
62%
% under line
56%
68%
43%
28%
36%
20%
31%
24%
38%
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valencia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.7
9.8
4.6
5.0
4.2
24.4
25.8
23.1
vs Stronger (6)
10.8
12.0
9.7
2.8
3.3
2.3
20.8
21.0
20.7
vs Similar (40)
9.4
9.3
9.6
4.8
5.2
4.4
24.9
26.5
23.2
vs Weaker (4)
11.7
-
11.7
4.8
-
4.8
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
45%
42%
48%
68%
71%
65%
63%
75%
52%
% under line
55%
58%
52%
32%
29%
35%
37%
25%
48%
This opponent (Deportivo La Coruna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.6
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Osasuna
9.1
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.8
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.5
Malaga
5.3
Sevilla
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Osasuna
4.8
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Athletic Club
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.4
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.3
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Athletic Club
25.3
Celta Vigo
25.0
Osasuna
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.8
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.2
Real Madrid
23.9
Deportivo La Coruna
23.6
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.3%
@ 2.05+3.9%
Under 9.5
50.7%
@ 1.70-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.16
1xBet
2.08
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Under
Superbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.2%
@ 1.65+7.6%
Under 3.5
35.8%
@ 2.15-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.36
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
68.6%
@ 1.46+6.1%
Under 21.5
31.4%
@ 2.43-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.43
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Deportivo La Coruna or Draw✓ Hit
51.8%
Avg Implied 68.6% · @ 1.37
Edge
-16.8%
24%
28%
48%
covers Deportivo La Coruna + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Deportivo La Coruna or Valencia✓ Hit
72.4%
Avg Implied 68.7% · @ 1.37
Edge
+3.7%
24%
28%
48%
covers Deportivo La Coruna + Valencia
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Draw or Valencia✗ Miss
75.8%
Avg Implied 62.8% · @ 1.50
Edge
+13.1%
24%
28%
48%
covers Draw + Valencia
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.0%
@ 1.36-3.4%
Under
35.0%
@ 2.96+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
28.2%
@ 2.82-4.8%
Under
71.8%
@ 1.40+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.05
Marathonbet
2.93
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Betano
2.80
Under
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
9.0%
@ 7.16-4.1%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.07+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.60
Superbet
7.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 17.08-3.4%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Valencia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.2%
@ 1.45+14.8%
Under
20.8%
@ 2.62-14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
Unibet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Valencia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.5%
@ 3.24+17.7%
Under
53.5%
@ 1.31-17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.49
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Under
1xBet
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Valencia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.9%
@ 8.44+9.8%
Under
79.1%
@ 1.05-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.30
Marathonbet
9.30
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.20
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Valencia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 20.33+2.7%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.01-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Deportivo La Coruna, so a minus line means Deportivo La Coruna give that many goals of a start and Valencia receive them. At -1, Deportivo La Coruna must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Deportivo La Coruna win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Deportivo La Coruna)Actual: Draw
Deportivo La Coruna -2
2.7%
@ 14.10-3.7%
Draw -2
6.7%
@ 7.38-5.6%
Valencia +2
90.6%
@ 1.12+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.40
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Away
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (Deportivo La Coruna)Actual: Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna -1
9.4%
@ 5.58-6.8%
Draw -1
14.7%
@ 3.93-8.3%
Valencia +1
75.8%
@ 1.49+15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.55
Superbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Draw
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Away
Marathonbet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Handicap +1 (Deportivo La Coruna)Actual: Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna +1
51.8%
@ 1.37-14.4%
Draw +1
22.6%
@ 4.41+2.1%
Valencia -1
25.6%
@ 6.88+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Draw
Superbet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Away
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.80
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Handicap +2 (Deportivo La Coruna)Actual: Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna +2
74.4%
@ 1.08-10.0%
Draw +2
15.0%
@ 8.75+4.6%
Valencia -2
10.5%
@ 17.75+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Unibet
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Deportivo La Coruna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.65
0.47
0.54
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.54
0.73
0.47
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valencia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.40
0.27
0.27
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.43
0.33
0.33
0.55
0.55
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
-
-
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Deportivo La Coruna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.9%
@ 1.54+12.7%
Under 0.5
26.1%
@ 2.43-12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Under
SBO
2.56
Betfair
2.55
William Hil
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
10Bet
2.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
29.9%
@ 3.55+3.5%
Under 1.5
70.1%
@ 1.27-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Betano
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Under
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
10.4%
@ 9.80+0.8%
Under 2.5
89.6%
@ 1.04-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.50
Betfair
10.00
Under
Superbet
1.06
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Bet365
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.9%
@ 2.31+0.6%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.56-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.34
Superbet
2.30
Under
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
Unibet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
7.8%
@ 7.80-4.1%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.05+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
Superbet
7.60
Betano
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 20.50-2.1%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Valencia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.8%
@ 2.48+11.3%
Under
51.2%
@ 1.49-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
Betano
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Under
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Valencia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.9%
@ 9.20+2.8%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.03-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Superbet
8.60
Unibet
8.50
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Valencia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 25.00-1.1%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
36.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Deportivo La Coruna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.59
0.76
0.69
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.55
0.27
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valencia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
1.00
1.07
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.83
1.00
0.92
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Deportivo La Coruna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.4%
@ 1.34+12.6%
Under 0.5
17.6%
@ 3.10-12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Under
Unibet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.18
1xBet
3.18
Superbet
3.15
Betano
3.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
52.2%
@ 2.58+15.9%
Under 1.5
47.8%
@ 1.47-15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.72
William Hil
2.62
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.60
Under
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.47
Unibet
1.47
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.9%
@ 6.25+6.9%
Under 2.5
78.1%
@ 1.10-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.70
William Hil
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
1xBet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.0%
@ 1.93+1.7%
Under
50.0%
@ 1.79-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.91
Under
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.77
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 5.72-4.1%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.11+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.10
Marathonbet
6.10
Superbet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Deportivo La Coruna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 15.12-4.1%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Valencia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.7%
@ 2.04+10.3%
Under
44.3%
@ 1.70-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
Under
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Valencia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
27.0%
@ 6.41+12.5%
Under
73.0%
@ 1.08-12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Superbet
6.50
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Valencia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 16.88-0.5%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.02+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
+4.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
91.0%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
+4.1%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
90.6%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.08
+9.3%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.04
Superbet
1.06
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-0.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.04
-3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.34
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
+12.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
81.6%
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.27
-
-
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.2%
1.45
Pinnacle
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
+14.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
79.1%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
-9.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.10
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-6.9%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
75.8%
1.50
SBO
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
+13.1%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
75.8%
1.49
Marathonbet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
+15.1%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.8%
1.47
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
+10.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
74.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
-10.0%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.0%
1.24
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.26
Betano
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.9%
1.54
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
+12.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.2%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
-7.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
73.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-12.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.4%
1.37
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.8%
1.28
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.24
-
-
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
71.8%
1.40
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+4.8%
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.1%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
-3.5%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Deportivo La Coruna
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang100%
Ximo Navarro0%
Giacomo Quagliata0%
Mario Soriano0%
Adrià Altimira0%
Leo Román0%
Luismi Cruz0%
Lucas Noubi0%
Lorenzo Amatucci0%
Jonathan Asp Jensen0%
Bright Ede0%
Bil Nsongo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ximo Navarro67%
Giacomo Quagliata33%
Mario Soriano33%
Adrià Altimira33%
Lorenzo Amatucci33%
Bil Nsongo33%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang0%
Leo Román0%
Luismi Cruz0%
Lucas Noubi0%
Jonathan Asp Jensen0%
Bright Ede0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mario Soriano33%
Luismi Cruz33%
Lorenzo Amatucci33%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang0%
Ximo Navarro0%
Giacomo Quagliata0%
Adrià Altimira0%
Leo Román0%
Lucas Noubi0%
Jonathan Asp Jensen0%
Bright Ede0%
Bil Nsongo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang67%
Ximo Navarro0%
Giacomo Quagliata0%
Mario Soriano0%
Adrià Altimira0%
Leo Román0%
Luismi Cruz0%
Lucas Noubi0%
Lorenzo Amatucci0%
Jonathan Asp Jensen0%
Bright Ede0%
Bil Nsongo0%
Valencia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Umar Sadiq33%
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mouctar Diakhaby67%
Stole Dimitrievski33%
Ryunosuke Sato33%
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arnaut Danjuma0%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Arnaut Danjuma33%
Mouctar Diakhaby0%
Aliou Dieng0%
Umar Sadiq0%
Hugo Duro0%
Pepelu0%
Stole Dimitrievski0%
Filip Ugrinić0%
Jesús Vázquez0%
Javier Guerra0%
César Tárrega0%
Ryunosuke Sato0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Deportivo La Coruna's squad is €41m less valuable than Valencia's (€84m vs €125m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Deportivo La Coruna's attack is €9m more valuable than Valencia's (€49m vs €40m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Deportivo La Coruna's midfield is €33m less valuable than Valencia's (€13m vs €46m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Deportivo La Coruna's defence is €17m less valuable than Valencia's (€22m vs €39m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga