The match between Derby and Swansea is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds for a draw and an away victory are close. The probability of a Derby win is 40 %, a draw 30 %, and a Swansea win 30 %. The expected total goals is 2.4, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 27 %. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.2 % chance. Derby’s home form shows they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.83 conceded against similarly strong opponents, while Swansea’s away form averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.8 % with a 3 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.4 % with a 3 % edge), Under 5.5 (96.3 % with a 4 % edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.8 % with a 6 % edge). Both sides have been drawing recently, so the contest remains finely balanced.
Results analysis
The upset came as the pre-match favourite, Home win, failed to materialise, with the final score 0-3 giving an away win. Derby’s recent run of LDLLL and a 0-3 defeat at home contrasted sharply with Swansea’s WDWLW streak and a 3-0 victory away. The model had assigned a 40% probability to a home win, 30% to a draw and 30% to an away win, yet the outcome was the opposite of the favourite. All suggested picks were settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.6%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.7%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.4%, Under 5.5 hit at 96.3%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.2%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Derby win✗ Miss
40.2%
Avg Implied 40.9% · @ 2.29
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.36
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.35
Dafabet
2.35
Unibet
2.32
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.24
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.36
Dafabet
3.35
Superbet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Betano
3.25
Swansea win✓ Hit
29.9%
Avg Implied 30.2% · @ 3.11
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.20
Pinnacle
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Unibet
3.15
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Derby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.30
1.40
1.13
1.60
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.50
1.00
2.33
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.54
1.12
1.50
0.83
1.57
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swansea
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.17
1.47
0.93
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.34
1.10
1.47
0.93
1.21
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.0%
@ 1.34+1.0%
Under 1.5
29.0%
@ 3.13-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.28
Unibet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Betano
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.7%
@ 2.09-1.6%
Under 2.5
56.3%
@ 1.73+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.16
Pinnacle
2.14
Superbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.10
Under
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.7%
@ 3.67-2.8%
Under 3.5
77.3%
@ 1.26+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.83
Betfair
3.80
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.26
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.3%
@ 1.80-1.2%
No
49.7%
@ 1.92+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
No
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.93
William Hil
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.86+6.5%
1-0
10.4%@ 6.90+3.9%
0-0
10.1%@ 8.58+4.9%
2-1
8.5%@ 8.61+3.3%
0-1
8.5%@ 8.39+3.1%
2-0
7.7%@ 10.11+3.3%
1-2
7.1%@ 10.38+2.8%
0-2
5.4%@ 14.51+2.3%
Derby goals ↓
Swansea goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.5%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.1%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.7%
8.5%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.4%
3.7%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Derby goals (down), columns = Swansea goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Derby is 0.11 points better than Swansea in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Derby is 0.22 goals better than Swansea in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Derby and Swansea are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Derby is 10.2 percentage points worse than Swansea in terms of average possession (44% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Derby
For 4.6 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.2 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 10.5 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swansea
For 4.4 · Against 6.2 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 12.3 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
9.9
4.1
4.1
4.1
22.8
22.5
23.1
vs Stronger (7)
9.9
11.2
8.0
5.0
4.5
5.7
24.1
22.2
26.7
vs Similar (43)
10.0
9.8
10.1
4.0
4.0
3.9
22.5
22.5
22.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
50%
42%
54%
58%
50%
62%
62%
62%
% under line
54%
50%
58%
46%
42%
50%
38%
38%
38%
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swansea
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.4
9.6
3.9
4.1
3.7
22.4
21.8
23.0
vs Stronger (3)
8.0
10.0
4.0
3.7
5.0
1.0
24.0
21.0
30.0
vs Similar (47)
10.1
10.4
9.8
3.9
4.0
3.8
22.3
21.9
22.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
56%
48%
60%
67%
52%
60%
59%
61%
% under line
48%
44%
52%
40%
33%
48%
40%
41%
39%
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
10.9
Cardiff
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Millwall
10.7
Blackburn
10.6
Preston
10.6
Stoke
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Watford
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.5
Wolves
9.4
West Brom
9.2
Lincoln
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Lincoln
4.2
Sheffield United
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Southampton
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Swansea
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Preston
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.2
Lincoln
23.1
Derby
22.8
Swansea
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
Bolton
22.2
West Ham
22.2
Birmingham
21.9
Sheffield United
21.6
Middlesbrough
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.3
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
Blackburn
21.0
West Brom
20.9
Stoke
20.8
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.7
Millwall
20.7
Burnley
20.0
Preston
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.8%
@ 1.65-2.5%
Under 9.5
46.2%
@ 2.13+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.82
Pinnacle
1.70
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Under
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.16
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.2%
@ 2.26+13.4%
Under 3.5
45.8%
@ 1.56-13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.54
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
57.3%
@ 1.71+5.1%
Under 21.5
42.7%
@ 1.87-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.71
Under
Superbet
1.87
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Derby or Draw✗ Miss
70.1%
Avg Implied 69.8% · @ 1.34
Edge
+0.3%
40%
30%
30%
covers Derby + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
Derby or Swansea✓ Hit
70.1%
Avg Implied 71.5% · @ 1.31
Edge
-1.3%
40%
30%
30%
covers Derby + Swansea
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Draw or Swansea✓ Hit
59.8%
Avg Implied 58.8% · @ 1.59
Edge
+1.1%
40%
30%
30%
covers Draw + Swansea
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.65
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Derby over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
73.3%
@ 1.26-0.3%
Under
26.7%
@ 3.52+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Under
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.68
BetVictor
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Derby over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.0%
@ 2.33-2.0%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.56+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
Bet365
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Superbet
2.37
Under
Pinnacle
1.59
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Derby over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 5.33-2.7%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.12+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.60
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Derby over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 13.25-2.7%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.02+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Swansea over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.9%
@ 1.39-0.1%
Under
33.1%
@ 2.82+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
3.00
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
BetVictor
2.80
Swansea over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.3%
@ 2.89-1.9%
Under
69.7%
@ 1.37+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.95
Superbet
2.90
10Bet
2.88
Under
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Swansea over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
10.1%
@ 7.29-2.6%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.06+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.20
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Swansea over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 18.08-2.7%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Derby, so a minus line means Derby give that many goals of a start and Swansea receive them. At -1, Derby must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Derby win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Derby)Actual: Swansea
Derby -2
6.8%
@ 9.78-2.3%
Draw -2
12.2%
@ 6.23-2.0%
Swansea +2
81.0%
@ 1.16+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.50
10Bet
9.50
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
Away
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
Handicap -1 (Derby)Actual: Swansea
Derby -1
19.0%
@ 4.44-1.2%
Draw -1
21.2%
@ 3.82-2.2%
Swansea +1
59.8%
@ 1.59+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Superbet
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Away
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.57
Handicap +1 (Derby)Actual: Swansea
Derby +1
70.1%
@ 1.33+2.8%
Draw +1
17.6%
@ 4.62-1.8%
Swansea -1
12.3%
@ 6.76-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Away
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Handicap +2 (Derby)Actual: Swansea
Derby +2
87.7%
@ 1.08+3.0%
Draw +2
8.6%
@ 9.12-1.4%
Swansea -2
3.8%
@ 17.00-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Away
Betfair
20.00
Bet365
19.00
10Bet
15.00
Unibet
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Derby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.73
0.60
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.58
0.75
0.58
0.93
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swansea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
0.45
0.55
0.47
0.53
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.3%
@ 1.43+0.0%
Under 0.5
34.7%
@ 2.68-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.83
William Hil
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Superbet
2.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
30.7%
@ 3.01-0.3%
Under 1.5
69.3%
@ 1.35+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.15
Betano
3.10
Superbet
3.05
1xBet
3.04
Marathonbet
3.04
Under
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.4%
@ 7.90-1.4%
Under 2.5
89.6%
@ 1.06+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Derby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.1%
@ 2.05+0.6%
Under
53.9%
@ 1.71-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Unibet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Derby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 6.44-3.1%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.08+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
7.00
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
Unibet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
Derby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 16.50-3.7%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Swansea over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.0%
@ 2.35-1.6%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.54+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.45
10Bet
2.35
Superbet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.33
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Swansea over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
8.5%
@ 8.18-2.9%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.05+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.20
1xBet
9.20
Superbet
7.90
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Swansea over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 30.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Derby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.67
0.53
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.33
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.54
0.75
0.25
0.64
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Swansea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swansea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
1.00
0.40
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.90
0.55
1.00
0.40
0.79
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.3%
@ 1.26+0.3%
Under 0.5
25.7%
@ 3.58-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Betano
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.8%
@ 2.23-1.1%
Under 1.5
59.2%
@ 1.61+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
William Hil
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Under
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 4.94-3.8%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.15+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.20
1xBet
5.15
Marathonbet
5.15
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Derby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.4%
@ 1.73-1.2%
Under
47.6%
@ 2.00+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Under
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Derby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.3%
@ 4.61-2.8%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.16+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.75
1xBet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Derby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 11.88-4.1%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Swansea over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.8%
@ 1.96-1.6%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.76+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Under
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Swansea over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.7%
@ 5.83-2.2%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.10+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.00
Superbet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Swansea over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 15.12-4.0%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
90.1%
1.07
Pinnacle
1.12
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.9%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
+2.6%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.06
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
+3.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.3%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.3%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.0%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.7%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.3%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.26
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.3%
1.26
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.3%
1.55
Unibet
1.61
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
-
+14.6%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.3%
1.26
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
-0.3%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.0%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.36
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.1%
1.31
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.1%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
+0.3%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
70.1%
1.33
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.1%
1.44
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.47
Betfair
1.44
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.40
+5.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Derby
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Szmodics75%
Carlton Morris33%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lewis Travis75%
Sondre Langås60%
D. Sanderson40%
Rhian Brewster25%
A. Mowatt25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
Oscar Fraulo25%
C. Taylor20%
M. Johnston20%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Bobby Clark0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bobby Clark40%
Carlton Morris33%
Oscar Fraulo25%
Rhian Brewster0%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Szmodics25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Swansea
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joseph Opoku50%
A. Idah40%
Ji-sung Eom40%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
J. Tymon0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
Z. Vipotnik0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
F. Lissah40%
M. Widell40%
J. Fulton20%
J. Tymon20%
Elijah Just20%
M. Stamenić20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
S. Welsh0%
Ben Cabango0%
A. Idah0%
Z. Vipotnik0%
Ji-sung Eom0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ji-sung Eom40%
J. Tymon20%
A. Idah20%
Z. Vipotnik20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Idah40%
Z. Vipotnik20%
Ji-sung Eom20%
L. Vigouroux0%
Josh Key0%
J. Fulton0%
J. Tymon0%
S. Welsh0%
Elijah Just0%
Ben Cabango0%
M. Stamenić0%
F. Lissah0%
M. Widell0%
M. Yeo0%
Joseph Opoku0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Derby's squad is €34m less valuable than Swansea's (€57m vs €91m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Derby's attack is €31m less valuable than Swansea's (€25m vs €56m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Derby's midfield is €4m more valuable than Swansea's (€14m vs €9m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Derby's defence is €8m less valuable than Swansea's (€18m vs €26m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston