This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.30
1.67
1.13
1.20
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (26)
1.54
1.35
1.64
1.21
1.42
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.9%
Under 1.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.1%
Under 2.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.1%
Under 3.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.9%
No
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.1%
1-1
12.6%
2-0
12.6%
0-0
11.7%
2-1
8.9%
3-0
6.5%
0-1
6.3%
3-1
4.6%
Derry City goals ↓
Dundalk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
6.3%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.0%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
8.9%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
6.5%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.5%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Derry City goals (down), columns = Dundalk goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shelbourne
1.75
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.53
Galway United
1.44
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Waterford
1.25
Bohemians
1.17
Drogheda United
1.00
Dundalk
0.72
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Derry City is 0.81 points better than Dundalk in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 0.72).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Patrick's Athl.
1.42
Shamrock Rovers
1.39
Derry City
1.33
Waterford
1.19
Drogheda United
1.19
Shelbourne
1.11
Sligo Rovers
1.11
Bohemians
1.08
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Galway United
0.92
Dundalk
0.64
Derry City is 0.69 goals better than Dundalk in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.64).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shelbourne
0.75
Galway United
0.81
Derry City
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.97
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Bohemians
1.19
Waterford
1.31
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.59
Bray Wanderers
3.00
Derry City is 0.53 goals better than Dundalk in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.39).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
St Patrick's Athl.
53%
Bohemians
52%
Waterford
50%
Dundalk
48%
Sligo Rovers
48%
Drogheda United
39%
Galway United
39%
Derry City is 8.2 percentage points better than Dundalk in terms of average possession (56% vs 48%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Derry City
For 6.1 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.6
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.6
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 15.3 · Total 25.9
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundalk
For 4.7 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.2
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 12.7 · Total 28.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.7
9.3
2.9
2.2
3.5
24.5
25.0
24.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
9.9
10.4
9.4
2.7
2.1
3.2
24.9
26.0
24.0
vs Weaker (14)
10.2
11.5
9.0
3.4
2.6
4.1
23.6
22.8
24.5
% over line
55%
64%
47%
40%
32%
48%
64%
62%
67%
% under line
45%
36%
53%
60%
68%
52%
36%
38%
33%
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.7
8.5
6.8
2.7
2.6
2.9
27.5
25.8
29.9
vs Stronger (5)
8.7
11.0
7.5
2.6
2.0
3.0
24.7
21.0
26.5
vs Similar (45)
7.6
8.3
6.7
2.8
2.6
2.9
27.9
26.2
30.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
31%
43%
17%
46%
42%
50%
88%
79%
100%
% under line
69%
57%
83%
54%
58%
50%
12%
21%
0%
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Galway United
12.0
Bohemians
11.5
Shamrock Rovers
10.4
Drogheda United
9.9
Derry City
9.8
Waterford
9.7
St Patrick's Athl.
9.4
Sligo Rovers
8.8
Shelbourne
8.8
Dundalk
7.7
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
St Patrick's Athl.
6.1
Shelbourne
6.0
Sligo Rovers
5.3
Dundalk
5.3
Bohemians
5.2
Derry City
5.1
Waterford
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
4.8
Drogheda United
4.1
Galway United
4.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundalk
27.5
Sligo Rovers
27.1
Shelbourne
26.4
St Patrick's Athl.
25.8
Bohemians
24.7
Galway United
24.6
Derry City
24.5
Waterford
24.4
Shamrock Rovers
23.3
Drogheda United
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
44.9%
Under 9.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
71.6%
Under 3.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
86.5%
Under 21.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.23
0.67
0.13
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.27
0.64
0.09
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.12
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.67
0.80
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.85
0.71
0.86
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
1.20
0.27
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.00
0.50
1.09
0.27
0.91
0.73
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.25
1.50
0.25
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
1.00
0.33
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.50
0.93
0.36
0.92
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 2.5 cards
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 3.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 11.5 corners
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 3.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Derry City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pat Hoban40%
William Patching22%
Danny Mullen19%
Michael Duffy17%
Colm Whelan11%
Paul McMullan9%
Ronan Boyce7%
Cameron Dummigan7%
Sadou Diallo5%
Ciaran Coll4%
Daniel Kelly4%
Ben Doherty4%
Mark Connolly3%
Adam O'Reilly3%
Andre Wisdom0%
Jacob Davenport0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Cameron McJannett0%
Sean Robertson0%
Sean Patton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mark Connolly31%
Adam O'Reilly26%
Pat Hoban20%
Sam Todd20%
Paul McMullan17%
Jacob Davenport17%
Ciaran Coll17%
Sean Robertson17%
William Patching16%
Sadou Diallo15%
Michael Duffy13%
Andre Wisdom12%
Danny Mullen10%
Cameron McJannett10%
Brian Maher9%
Daniel Kelly8%
Ben Doherty8%
Shane McEleney5%
Ronan Boyce3%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Colm Whelan0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sean Patton0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jacob Davenport17%
Michael Duffy17%
Paul McMullan14%
William Patching12%
Daniel Kelly12%
Pat Hoban10%
Cameron McJannett10%
Patrick McEleney8%
Ben Doherty8%
Cameron Dummigan7%
Danny Mullen6%
Mark Connolly6%
Andre Wisdom0%
Adam O'Reilly0%
Ciaran Coll0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Colm Whelan0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Sean Robertson0%
Sean Patton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pat Hoban30%
Michael Duffy17%
William Patching16%
Paul McMullan11%
Colm Whelan11%
Danny Mullen10%
Daniel Kelly8%
Cameron McJannett5%
Andre Wisdom0%
Adam O'Reilly0%
Jacob Davenport0%
Mark Connolly0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaran Coll0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Ben Doherty0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Sean Robertson0%
Sean Patton0%
Dundalk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jamie Gullan16%
Robbie Benson13%
Ryan O'Kane9%
Daryl Horgan8%
Jad Hakiki8%
Eoin Kenny8%
John Mountney7%
Scott High7%
Ross Munro0%
Andy Boyle0%
Louie Annesley0%
Paul Doyle0%
Dara Keane0%
Aodh Dervin0%
Jamie Walker0%
Scott McGill0%
Archie Davies0%
Cameron Elliott0%
Koen Oostenbrink0%
Robert Mahon0%
George Shelvey0%
Hayden Muller0%
Hayden Cann0%
Zac Johnson0%
Felix Goddard0%
Dan Pike0%
Sam Durrant0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Ciaran McGuckin0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Zak Bradshaw0%
Norman Garbett0%
Sean Keogh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Keogh45%
Aodh Dervin42%
Paul Doyle32%
Hayden Muller31%
Cameron Elliott29%
Koen Oostenbrink29%
Zak Bradshaw28%
Robbie Benson27%
Mayowa Animasahun26%
Bobby Faulkner25%
Sam Durrant22%
Louie Annesley20%
Eoin Kenny20%
Archie Davies18%
Zac Johnson17%
Jamie Gullan16%
John Mountney14%
Norman Garbett14%
Andy Boyle12%
Scott McGill11%
Hayden Cann11%
Dan Pike11%
Jad Hakiki8%
Scott High7%
Daryl Horgan6%
Robert Mahon5%
Ross Munro5%
Ryan O'Kane3%
Dara Keane0%
Jamie Walker0%
George Shelvey0%
Felix Goddard0%
Ciaran McGuckin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dan Pike11%
Daryl Horgan8%
Jad Hakiki8%
Ryan O'Kane6%
Sam Durrant6%
Paul Doyle5%
Robert Mahon5%
Archie Davies5%
Eoin Kenny4%
John Mountney4%
Robbie Benson3%
Jamie Gullan3%
Ross Munro0%
Andy Boyle0%
Louie Annesley0%
Dara Keane0%
Aodh Dervin0%
Jamie Walker0%
Scott McGill0%
Cameron Elliott0%
Koen Oostenbrink0%
Scott High0%
George Shelvey0%
Hayden Muller0%
Hayden Cann0%
Zac Johnson0%
Felix Goddard0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Ciaran McGuckin0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Zak Bradshaw0%
Norman Garbett0%
Sean Keogh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Gullan13%
Cameron Elliott12%
Sean Keogh9%
Daryl Horgan8%
Eoin Kenny8%
John Mountney7%
Sam Durrant6%
Robbie Benson3%
Ryan O'Kane3%
Ross Munro0%
Andy Boyle0%
Louie Annesley0%
Paul Doyle0%
Dara Keane0%
Aodh Dervin0%
Jamie Walker0%
Scott McGill0%
Archie Davies0%
Koen Oostenbrink0%
Robert Mahon0%
Scott High0%
George Shelvey0%
Hayden Muller0%
Hayden Cann0%
Zac Johnson0%
Felix Goddard0%
Dan Pike0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Ciaran McGuckin0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Zak Bradshaw0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Norman Garbett0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
BW (1)
€0m
Derry City's squad is €2m more valuable than Dundalk's (€4m vs €3m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Derry City and Dundalk have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Derry City and Dundalk have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
BW (0)
€0m
Derry City and Dundalk have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
Bohemians
Drogheda United
Bray Wanderers