The contest between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win at 37%. The expected total goals hover around 2.4, suggesting a modestly low-scoring affair. The most probable final score is 1-1, a 14.4% chance, reflecting the evenly matched teams. Derry City, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.27 conceded, while Shamrock Rovers, on the road, averages 1.5 scored and 1.88 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 37% for a Derry City win, 30% for a draw, and 33% for a Shamrock Rovers win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.2% with a 4% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.0% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.0% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (96.6% with a 5% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (96.4% with a 3% edge). Both sides have recently mixed results, with Derry City coming off a 3-5 loss to Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers ending a 1-1 draw with KuPS, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Derry City, did not materialise as the match finished 3-3, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. The model had given the home side a 37% chance of victory, while the draw probability was 30% and an away win 33%. The final score of 3-3 matched the teams’ recent form, each coming off a draw against the other. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 (99.7%) hit, Under 6.5 (98.9%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%) missed, Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.7%) hit, Under 5.5 (96.6%) missed, and Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.6%) hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Derry City win✗ Miss
36.9%
Avg Implied 35.6% · @ 2.60
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.68
Superbet
2.65
Dafabet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.64
1xBet
2.63
Draw✓ Hit
30.5%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.26
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.42
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Unibet
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Shamrock Rovers win✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied 35.9% · @ 2.58
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.68
Unibet
2.63
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Bet365
2.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Derry City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.27
1.67
1.13
1.07
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.48
1.55
1.27
1.25
1.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.57
2.00
0.75
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.07
2.00
0.93
1.19
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.63
1.26
1.90
0.80
1.33
1.78
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
0.73
2.25
1.25
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.8%
@ 1.28-2.6%
Under 1.5
30.2%
@ 3.36+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.73
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.2%
@ 1.93-6.4%
Under 2.5
57.8%
@ 1.83+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.03
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
10Bet
1.90
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Betano
1.83
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.5%
@ 3.31-6.7%
Under 3.5
78.5%
@ 1.29+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.38
Unibet
3.35
Superbet
3.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.4%
@ 1.71-4.8%
No
50.6%
@ 2.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
No
William Hil
2.10
Bet365
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Betfair
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 5.93+6.9%
0-0
10.7%@ 9.18+5.8%
1-0
10.2%@ 8.24+4.8%
0-1
9.4%@ 8.20+3.9%
2-1
8.1%@ 9.04+3.1%
1-2
7.5%@ 9.07+2.6%
2-0
7.1%@ 12.25+3.4%
0-2
6.1%@ 12.20+2.4%
Derry City goals ↓
Shamrock Rovers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.4%
6.1%
2.3%
0.7%
1
10%
14%
7.5%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.1%
8.1%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.9%
3.3%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Derry City goals (down), columns = Shamrock Rovers goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.96
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Bohemians
1.72
Dundalk
1.38
Shelbourne
1.30
Galway United
1.21
Derry City
1.17
Waterford
1.10
Drogheda United
0.97
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Derry City is 0.79 points worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.96).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.72
Shamrock Rovers
1.64
Dundalk
1.59
St Patrick's Athl.
1.55
Derry City
1.41
Shelbourne
1.37
Waterford
1.34
Galway United
1.29
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Derry City is 0.23 goals worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.96
Bohemians
1.17
Derry City
1.38
Shelbourne
1.44
Galway United
1.50
Dundalk
1.55
Sligo Rovers
1.66
Drogheda United
1.66
Waterford
1.66
Derry City is 0.42 goals worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 0.96).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Bohemians
59%
St Patrick's Athl.
55%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
46%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
40%
Waterford
39%
Derry City is 8.3 percentage points worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of average possession (54% vs 62%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Derry City
For 5.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 10.8 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shamrock Rovers
For 3.4 · Against 3.4 · Total 6.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 13.7 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.2
10.0
5.1
4.4
5.7
23.1
22.2
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
9.1
9.2
9.1
5.5
4.8
6.1
24.5
23.4
25.6
vs Weaker (14)
10.9
9.3
12.4
4.1
3.6
4.7
19.6
19.3
19.9
% over line
47%
33%
60%
70%
58%
81%
65%
62%
68%
% under line
53%
67%
40%
30%
42%
19%
35%
38%
32%
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
8.5
7.8
4.0
3.5
4.7
22.6
22.4
22.8
vs Stronger (3)
10.3
12.0
9.5
4.7
1.0
6.5
18.0
14.0
20.0
vs Similar (31)
8.1
8.4
7.7
3.7
3.3
4.2
23.8
23.3
24.5
vs Weaker (16)
7.8
8.1
7.5
4.6
4.1
5.0
21.4
21.7
21.1
% over line
23%
27%
19%
60%
42%
79%
58%
50%
67%
% under line
77%
73%
81%
40%
58%
21%
42%
50%
33%
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
11.1
Waterford
11.0
Galway United
10.5
Dundalk
10.4
St Patrick's Athl.
10.3
Drogheda United
10.2
Bohemians
10.0
Shelbourne
9.7
Derry City
9.5
Shamrock Rovers
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.2
Dundalk
5.0
St Patrick's Athl.
4.9
Shamrock Rovers
4.8
Shelbourne
4.8
Waterford
4.7
Bohemians
4.7
Galway United
4.6
Drogheda United
4.5
Sligo Rovers
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Galway United
23.4
Dundalk
23.4
Bohemians
23.2
Derry City
23.0
Shamrock Rovers
22.8
St Patrick's Athl.
22.7
Waterford
22.3
Drogheda United
21.8
Shelbourne
21.3
Sligo Rovers
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
44.2%
@ 1.91-4.5%
Under 9.5
55.8%
@ 1.81+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.07
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
Unibet
1.86
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.4%
Under 3.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
55.6%
Under 21.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Derry City or Draw✓ Hit
67.4%
Avg Implied 63.9% · @ 1.46
Edge
+3.5%
37%
30%
33%
covers Derry City + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
Derry City or Shamrock Rovers✗ Miss
69.5%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.30
Edge
-2.2%
37%
30%
33%
covers Derry City + Shamrock Rovers
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Draw or Shamrock Rovers✓ Hit
63.1%
Avg Implied 64.3% · @ 1.45
Edge
-1.2%
37%
30%
33%
covers Draw + Shamrock Rovers
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Derry City over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.7%
@ 1.29-1.1%
Under
29.3%
@ 3.29+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.60
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
1xBet
3.26
Derry City over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
34.7%
@ 2.46-3.2%
Under
65.3%
@ 1.50+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.55
1xBet
2.52
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Derry City over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
12.7%
@ 5.74-3.5%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.11+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.25
1xBet
6.15
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.65
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Derry City over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 13.38-3.5%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.0%
@ 1.29-4.0%
Under
32.0%
@ 3.31+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.60
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Betano
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
31.6%
@ 2.44-6.7%
Under
68.4%
@ 1.51+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.52
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
Unibet
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
10.8%
@ 5.71-5.5%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.11+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Shamrock Rovers over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 13.50-4.2%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Derry City, so a minus line means Derry City give that many goals of a start and Shamrock Rovers receive them. At -1, Derry City must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Derry City win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Derry City)Actual: Shamrock Rovers
Derry City -2
5.6%
@ 11.30-2.2%
Draw -2
11.0%
@ 6.66-2.3%
Shamrock Rovers +2
83.4%
@ 1.12+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
7.20
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Derry City)Actual: Shamrock Rovers
Derry City -1
16.6%
@ 5.32-0.3%
Draw -1
20.4%
@ 4.22-0.9%
Shamrock Rovers +1
63.1%
@ 1.45+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
4.90
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Away
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Handicap +1 (Derry City)Actual: Derry City
Derry City +1
67.4%
@ 1.46+5.9%
Draw +1
18.8%
@ 4.20-2.6%
Shamrock Rovers -1
13.8%
@ 5.25-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Away
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Handicap +2 (Derry City)Actual: Derry City
Derry City +2
86.2%
@ 1.12+7.0%
Draw +2
9.5%
@ 6.86-3.5%
Shamrock Rovers -2
4.3%
@ 11.22-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.90
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.40
0.53
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.52
0.36
0.64
0.58
0.42
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.14
0.50
0.25
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
1.29
0.36
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.68
1.10
0.30
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.27
1.75
0.50
0.43
0.14
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.7%
@ 1.39+0.8%
Under 0.5
32.3%
@ 2.80-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
3.09
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.88
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
30.7%
@ 2.81-2.3%
Under 1.5
69.3%
@ 1.39+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.94
1xBet
2.89
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Betano
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.5%
@ 7.14-1.5%
Under 2.5
88.5%
@ 1.07+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.60
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.80
Under
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.9%
@ 2.11-2.1%
Under
58.1%
@ 1.66+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.15
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
10.7%
@ 6.89-2.7%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.06+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.70
Marathonbet
7.70
10Bet
6.25
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
1.9%
@ 16.88-3.8%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Betano
10.75
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.6%
@ 2.10-0.4%
Under
56.4%
@ 1.66+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.13
Pinnacle
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Betano
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.63
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 6.89-1.0%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.06+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.60
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 17.00-3.0%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
1.27
0.60
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.96
1.18
0.64
0.67
1.25
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.43
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.71
0.57
0.69
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.58
0.80
0.50
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.45
0.50
0.75
0.57
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.8%
@ 1.23-1.2%
Under 0.5
26.2%
@ 3.69+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.70
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.1%
@ 2.12-2.7%
Under 1.5
58.9%
@ 1.65+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Under
William Hil
1.73
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.2%
@ 4.62-5.9%
Under 2.5
85.8%
@ 1.16+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.75
William Hil
4.60
Superbet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.3%
@ 1.77-1.8%
Under
49.7%
@ 1.93+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 4.91-5.4%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.14+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.25
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 11.12-5.1%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.3%
@ 1.76+2.8%
Under
44.7%
@ 1.94-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.78
Superbet
1.78
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
16.1%
@ 4.88-2.8%
Under
83.9%
@ 1.14+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.20
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 11.12-5.0%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.6%
1.03
1xBet
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
+4.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.8%
1.09
Pinnacle
1.13
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.06
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
89.2%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.07
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.3%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+3.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.5%
1.14
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.8%
1.16
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.13
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
1.14
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.5%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
78.1%
1.29
Unibet
1.34
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
-
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.7%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
-1.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Derry City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kévin Santos30%
Ellis Chapman25%
Tyler Smith25%
Michael Duffy24%
James Clarke22%
Afolabi Akinyemi18%
Alex Bannon17%
Liam Boyce14%
Henry Rylah14%
C. Dummigan11%
Adam O'Reilly8%
B. Cotter8%
Darragh Markey6%
Josh Thomas5%
Conor Barr5%
Patrick McClean5%
J. Olayinka4%
C. Winchester0%
Brandon Fleming0%
J. McClean0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Jamie Stott0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
R. Slevin0%
Darragh Burns0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster67%
Patrick McClean36%
Gavin Whyte33%
Jamie Stott32%
Adam O'Reilly28%
C. Dummigan28%
Darragh Markey28%
J. McClean25%
Darragh Burns25%
Brandon Fleming24%
C. Winchester23%
Josh Thomas21%
B. Cotter20%
Ben Doherty18%
James Clarke17%
Liam Boyce14%
R. Slevin12%
Kévin Santos10%
J. Olayinka8%
Henry Rylah7%
Afolabi Akinyemi6%
Michael Duffy5%
Eddie Beach5%
Ellis Chapman0%
Tyler Smith0%
Brian Maher0%
Nick Twisk0%
Alex Bannon0%
Conor Barr0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Darragh Burns50%
Gavin Whyte33%
J. McClean25%
Michael Duffy19%
Alex Bannon17%
Liam Boyce14%
Kévin Santos10%
Ben Doherty9%
Brandon Fleming8%
Adam O'Reilly8%
Henry Rylah7%
C. Dummigan6%
Jamie Stott5%
Patrick McClean5%
James Clarke4%
J. Olayinka4%
Ellis Chapman0%
C. Winchester0%
Tyler Smith0%
Brian Maher0%
Darragh Markey0%
B. Cotter0%
Afolabi Akinyemi0%
R. Slevin0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Josh Thomas0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
Conor Barr0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Michael Duffy43%
Ellis Chapman25%
Liam Boyce14%
Afolabi Akinyemi6%
Josh Thomas5%
Patrick McClean5%
James Clarke4%
J. Olayinka4%
Brandon Fleming4%
Adam O'Reilly4%
C. Winchester0%
J. McClean0%
Tyler Smith0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Jamie Stott0%
C. Dummigan0%
Brian Maher0%
Darragh Markey0%
B. Cotter0%
Ben Doherty0%
R. Slevin0%
Darragh Burns0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
Alex Bannon0%
Kévin Santos0%
Henry Rylah0%
Conor Barr0%
Shamrock Rovers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Graham Burke27%
M. Noonan24%
Dylan Watts22%
Roberto Lopes21%
John McGovern18%
A. Greene16%
Daniel Grant15%
Adam Brennan15%
M. Asamoah10%
M. Healy8%
Enda Stevens8%
J. Byrne7%
Tunmise Sobowale4%
Connor Malley0%
A. Matthews0%
J. Mulraney0%
Dan Cleary0%
L. Grace0%
E. McGinty0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Cory O'Sullivan0%
N. Razi0%
Max Kovaleskis0%
Victor Ozhianvuna0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Asamoah40%
Enda Stevens38%
M. Healy28%
Max Kovaleskis25%
Adam Brennan25%
Roberto Lopes21%
A. Matthews20%
John O'Sullivan20%
Cory O'Sullivan18%
Tunmise Sobowale16%
Daniel Grant15%
J. Byrne15%
E. McGinty15%
Dan Cleary12%
N. Razi12%
A. Greene12%
Victor Ozhianvuna11%
Graham Burke9%
John McGovern9%
M. Noonan8%
L. Grace5%
J. Mulraney5%
Connor Malley0%
Dylan Watts0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
John McGovern23%
Dylan Watts17%
Tunmise Sobowale12%
Cory O'Sullivan12%
J. Byrne11%
Victor Ozhianvuna11%
M. Asamoah10%
Adam Brennan10%
Enda Stevens8%
Daniel Grant8%
John O'Sullivan7%
Graham Burke5%
J. Mulraney5%
Connor Malley0%
A. Matthews0%
Dan Cleary0%
L. Grace0%
Roberto Lopes0%
A. Greene0%
E. McGinty0%
M. Healy0%
N. Razi0%
M. Noonan0%
Max Kovaleskis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Asamoah20%
Graham Burke18%
Daniel Grant15%
John McGovern9%
M. Noonan8%
Roberto Lopes7%
John O'Sullivan7%
Victor Ozhianvuna6%
Adam Brennan5%
A. Greene4%
M. Healy4%
J. Byrne4%
Enda Stevens0%
Connor Malley0%
A. Matthews0%
J. Mulraney0%
Dan Cleary0%
L. Grace0%
Dylan Watts0%
E. McGinty0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Cory O'Sullivan0%
N. Razi0%
Max Kovaleskis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Derry City's squad is €3m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€4m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Derry City's attack is €2m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
Dundalk
Shelbourne
Galway United
Waterford
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers