This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.73
1.29
0.79
1.31
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.30
0.73
1.29
0.79
1.31
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.5%
Under 1.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.2%
Under 2.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.0%
Under 3.5
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.8%
No
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 â
14.5%
0-0
13.0%
1-0
13.0%
0-1
9.5%
2-0
8.7%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
5.0%
Derry City goals ↓
Shelbourne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.5%
5.0%
1.5%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.1%
1.9%
0.4%
2
8.7%
8.1%
3.7%
1.1%
0.3%
3
3.6%
3.3%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.0%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Derry City goals (down), columns = Shelbourne goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shelbourne
1.75
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.53
Galway United
1.44
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Waterford
1.25
Bohemians
1.17
Drogheda United
1.00
Dundalk
0.72
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Derry City is 0.22 points worse than Shelbourne in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.75).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Patrick's Athl.
1.42
Shamrock Rovers
1.39
Derry City
1.33
Waterford
1.19
Drogheda United
1.19
Shelbourne
1.11
Sligo Rovers
1.11
Bohemians
1.08
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Galway United
0.92
Dundalk
0.64
Derry City is 0.22 goals better than Shelbourne in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.11).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shelbourne
0.75
Galway United
0.81
Derry City
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.97
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Bohemians
1.19
Waterford
1.31
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.59
Bray Wanderers
3.00
Derry City is 0.11 goals worse than Shelbourne in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 0.75).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
St Patrick's Athl.
53%
Bohemians
52%
Waterford
50%
Dundalk
48%
Sligo Rovers
48%
Drogheda United
39%
Galway United
39%
Derry City is 2.6 percentage points better than Shelbourne in terms of average possession (56% vs 53%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Derry City
For 5.0 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 13.8 · Total 25.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shelbourne
For 4.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.6 · Total 6.2
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 15.4 · Total 27.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.5
8.9
3.3
2.8
3.8
24.5
24.6
24.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
9.7
10.2
9.1
3.1
2.5
3.7
24.9
25.2
24.5
vs Weaker (13)
9.8
11.5
8.4
3.8
3.6
4.0
23.6
22.8
24.2
% over line
51%
59%
44%
46%
40%
52%
68%
62%
72%
% under line
49%
41%
56%
54%
60%
48%
32%
38%
28%
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.2
8.5
3.5
3.4
3.6
26.4
27.9
25.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
8.8
9.2
8.5
3.5
3.4
3.6
26.4
27.9
25.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
36%
44%
48%
44%
52%
80%
93%
69%
% under line
60%
64%
56%
52%
56%
48%
20%
7%
31%
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
11.0
Galway United
11.0
Shamrock Rovers
10.5
Waterford
9.7
Derry City
9.6
St Patrick's Athl.
9.5
Drogheda United
9.4
Shelbourne
8.8
Sligo Rovers
8.8
Dundalk
8.0
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
St Patrick's Athl.
5.8
Shelbourne
5.8
Sligo Rovers
5.4
Waterford
5.4
Bohemians
5.2
Dundalk
5.2
Derry City
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
4.8
Galway United
4.4
Drogheda United
3.9
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundalk
26.9
Sligo Rovers
26.6
Shelbourne
26.4
St Patrick's Athl.
25.8
Waterford
25.7
Bohemians
25.2
Galway United
24.5
Derry City
24.5
Shamrock Rovers
23.8
Drogheda United
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.9%
Under 9.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.1%
Under 3.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.5%
Under 21.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.20
0.67
0.07
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.22
0.69
0.08
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.14
0.50
0.00
0.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
83% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.37
0.57
0.36
0.38
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.37
0.57
0.36
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.60
1.47
0.60
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.22
0.65
1.38
0.62
1.00
0.70
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.43
2.00
0.50
0.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.37
0.71
0.43
0.94
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.83
0.37
0.71
0.43
0.94
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Derry City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pat Hoban40%
William Patching22%
Danny Mullen19%
Michael Duffy17%
Colm Whelan11%
Paul McMullan9%
Ronan Boyce7%
Cameron Dummigan7%
Sadou Diallo5%
Ciaran Coll4%
Daniel Kelly4%
Ben Doherty4%
Mark Connolly3%
Adam O'Reilly3%
Andre Wisdom0%
Jacob Davenport0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Cameron McJannett0%
Sean Robertson0%
Sean Patton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mark Connolly31%
Adam O'Reilly26%
Pat Hoban20%
Sam Todd20%
Paul McMullan17%
Jacob Davenport17%
Ciaran Coll17%
Sean Robertson17%
William Patching16%
Sadou Diallo15%
Michael Duffy13%
Andre Wisdom12%
Danny Mullen10%
Cameron McJannett10%
Brian Maher9%
Daniel Kelly8%
Ben Doherty8%
Shane McEleney5%
Ronan Boyce3%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Colm Whelan0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sean Patton0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jacob Davenport17%
Michael Duffy17%
Paul McMullan14%
William Patching12%
Daniel Kelly12%
Pat Hoban10%
Cameron McJannett10%
Patrick McEleney8%
Ben Doherty8%
Cameron Dummigan7%
Danny Mullen6%
Mark Connolly6%
Andre Wisdom0%
Adam O'Reilly0%
Ciaran Coll0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Colm Whelan0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Sean Robertson0%
Sean Patton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pat Hoban30%
Michael Duffy17%
William Patching16%
Paul McMullan11%
Colm Whelan11%
Danny Mullen10%
Daniel Kelly8%
Cameron McJannett5%
Andre Wisdom0%
Adam O'Reilly0%
Jacob Davenport0%
Mark Connolly0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Patrick McEleney0%
Ciaran Coll0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Shane McEleney0%
Ben Doherty0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Sean Robertson0%
Sean Patton0%
Shelbourne
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sean Boyd30%
Will Jarvis22%
Aiden O'Brien14%
John Martin13%
Rayhaan Tulloch9%
Evan Caffrey9%
Alistair Coote7%
Harry Wood7%
Liam Burt6%
Matthew Smith6%
Mark Coyle6%
Gavin Molloy5%
John O'Sullivan4%
Tyreke Wilson3%
Sean Gannon0%
Sam Bone0%
Jonathan Lunney0%
Shane Griffin0%
Conor Kearns0%
Shane Farrell0%
Dean Williams0%
Paddy Barrett0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Jad Hakiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mark Coyle50%
Sean Gannon41%
Paddy Barrett34%
John Martin33%
Shane Griffin31%
John O'Sullivan28%
Shane Farrell24%
Sean Boyd22%
Jonathan Lunney22%
Alistair Coote21%
Harry Wood21%
Liam Burt16%
Matthew Smith16%
Tyreke Wilson14%
Evan Caffrey14%
Dean Williams13%
Kameron Ledwidge9%
Conor Kearns5%
Rayhaan Tulloch0%
Aiden O'Brien0%
Sam Bone0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Will Jarvis0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Will Jarvis15%
John Martin10%
Tyreke Wilson9%
Sean Boyd7%
Harry Wood7%
Matthew Smith6%
Shane Farrell6%
Evan Caffrey6%
Liam Burt3%
Sean Gannon3%
Jonathan Lunney3%
Mark Coyle3%
Paddy Barrett3%
Conor Kearns3%
Rayhaan Tulloch0%
Aiden O'Brien0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Sam Bone0%
Shane Griffin0%
Dean Williams0%
Alistair Coote0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sean Boyd19%
Will Jarvis19%
Aiden O'Brien14%
Alistair Coote7%
Harry Wood7%
Liam Burt6%
Evan Caffrey6%
Mark Coyle3%
Paddy Barrett3%
Rayhaan Tulloch0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Matthew Smith0%
Sean Gannon0%
Sam Bone0%
Jonathan Lunney0%
John Martin0%
Shane Griffin0%
Conor Kearns0%
Shane Farrell0%
Dean Williams0%
Tyreke Wilson0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
BW (1)
€0m
Derry City and Shelbourne have a similar squad value (both €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Derry City and Shelbourne have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Derry City and Shelbourne have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
BW (0)
€0m
Derry City and Shelbourne have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
Bohemians
Drogheda United
Dundalk
Bray Wanderers