This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.50
1.47
2.00
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
2.00
1.00
2.86
0.43
1.14
vs Similar (15)
1.67
1.13
1.88
1.25
1.43
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.6%
Under 1.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.9%
0-1
10.1%
1-1
9.9%
1-2
9.7%
0-3
8.6%
1-3 ✓
7.0%
0-0
6.0%
0-4
4.7%
Difai Ağsu goals ↓
Sumqayıt goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
10%
12%
8.6%
4.7%
1
3.3%
9.9%
9.7%
7.0%
3.8%
2
1.7%
3.6%
3.9%
2.8%
1.5%
3
0.5%
1.0%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Difai Ağsu goals (down), columns = Sumqayıt goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Araz
2.50
Qarabag
2.17
MOIK
2.00
Neftchi Baku
2.00
Turan
2.00
Sabah FA
1.67
Səbail
1.50
Imisli FK
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Şamaxı FK
1.50
Kapaz
1.50
Qabala
1.50
Safa Baku
1.00
Zira
1.00
Ağstafa Gəncləri
0.96
Goy-Gol
0.96
Şəki PFK
0.96
Kür-Araz
0.96
Xankəndi FK
0.96
Şirvan FK
0.96
Araz Saatlı
0.96
Sumqayıt
0.67
Difai Ağsu
0.50
Hypers Guba
0.00
Şəmkir
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şimal
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Cəbrayıl
0.00
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Difai Ağsu is 0.17 points worse than Sumqayıt in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turan
4.00
Şamaxı FK
3.50
Imisli FK
2.50
Səbail
2.25
Neftchi Baku
2.20
Hypers Guba
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
MOIK
2.00
Qabala
2.00
Qarabag
1.83
Araz
1.83
Kapaz
1.75
Sabah FA
1.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Ağstafa Gəncləri
1.38
Goy-Gol
1.38
Şəki PFK
1.38
Kür-Araz
1.38
Xankəndi FK
1.38
Şirvan FK
1.38
Araz Saatlı
1.38
Şəmkir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
1.00
Şimal
1.00
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Zira
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.33
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Difai Ağsu is 0.67 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Neftchi Baku
0.60
Qarabag
0.67
Araz
0.67
Kapaz
0.75
Sabah FA
0.83
Səbail
1.00
MOIK
1.00
Imisli FK
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Qabala
1.00
Zira
1.33
Mingəçevir
1.50
Turan
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.67
Safa Baku
2.00
Şamaxı FK
2.00
Ağstafa Gəncləri
2.50
Goy-Gol
2.50
Şəki PFK
2.50
Kür-Araz
2.50
Xankəndi FK
2.50
Şirvan FK
2.50
Araz Saatlı
2.50
Şimal
3.00
Karvan
3.00
Difai Ağsu
4.00
Şahdağ
4.00
Baku Sportinq
4.00
Cəbrayıl
5.00
Şəmkir
6.00
Ağdaş
6.00
Dinamo Bakı
6.00
Hypers Guba
7.00
Difai Ağsu is 2.33 goals worse than Sumqayıt in terms of goals conceded per game (4.00 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Difai Ağsu or Draw✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied -
12%
21%
67%
covers Difai Ağsu + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu or Sumqayıt✓ Hit
79.3%
Avg Implied -
12%
21%
67%
covers Difai Ağsu + Sumqayıt
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sumqayıt✓ Hit
88.1%
Avg Implied -
12%
21%
67%
covers Draw + Sumqayıt
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Difai Ağsu over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
55.6%
Under
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.5%
Under
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Difai Ağsu, so a minus line means Difai Ağsu give that many goals of a start and Sumqayıt receive them. At -1, Difai Ağsu must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Difai Ağsu win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Difai Ağsu)Actual: Sumqayıt
Difai Ağsu -2
0.8%
Draw -2
2.9%
Sumqayıt +2
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Difai Ağsu)Actual: Sumqayıt
Difai Ağsu -1
3.8%
Draw -1
8.1%
Sumqayıt +1
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Difai Ağsu)Actual: Sumqayıt
Difai Ağsu +1
32.5%
Draw +1
23.1%
Sumqayıt -1
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Difai Ağsu)Actual: Draw
Difai Ağsu +2
55.7%
Draw +2
20.7%
Sumqayıt -2
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Difai Ağsu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.54
0.85
0.71
0.94
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.92
0.80
1.00
0.62
0.88
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.38
0.50
1.25
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (9)
0.33
0.44
0.25
0.25
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.67
0.73
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.79
0.43
1.00
0.14
0.57
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
0.88
0.50
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Difai Ağsu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Difai Ağsu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.00
0.46
1.08
0.76
0.94
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.77
0.00
0.40
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.62
1.12
0.75
1.50
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
1.22
0.75
1.50
0.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.80
1.27
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.21
0.57
1.86
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.60
1.00
0.75
1.14
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Difai Ağsu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →