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Dila vs Saburtalo Result & Analysis

Date: 02/04/2022
Time: 17:00
Final 1-0
Dila
Dila
Vs
54%
26%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Dila are tipped to win this Erovnuli Liga clash, a result the model sees as the most likely. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the single most probable score is 1-1, carrying a 12.6% chance. Dila’s home form shows they average two goals scored and one conceded against teams of similar strength, while Saburtalo, playing away, also averages two goals scored but concedes two. The model’s selections include an 75.6% chance of over 1.5 goals and a 72.3% chance of under 3.5 goals. Dila’s home win probability sits at 54%, the draw at 26%, and the away win at 20%. The model’s picks are Over 1.5 (75.6%) and Under 3.5 (72.3%). With Dila recently recovering from a defeat and Saburtalo coming off four straight losses, the home side’s advantage is clear. The forecast favours a Dila win, a 1-1 scoreline being the most likely outcome, and the overall match shape suggests a tight contest with a decent chance of more than one goal.

Results analysis

The 1-0 victory for Dila extends their run after a recent defeat, while Saburtalo’s winless streak continues. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct, matching the actual result. It had a 54% chance of success, a 26% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of an away win. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 12.6%, followed by 1-0 at 10.7% and 2-0 at 10.1%. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 75.6% probability, missed, whereas its Under 3.5 choice, at 72.3%, hit. Overall, the predictions were largely accurate, with only the goal-count pick falling short.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dila win✓ Hit
53.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo win✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DilaDila

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L21W21WH·GAG26/02A·TOR04/03H·DIN08/03H·SIO19/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.002.001.000.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.331.002.001.000.001.00
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %0% (-28pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L20W22DH·SAM27/02A·GAG04/03H·TOR08/03A·DIN13/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.002.000.501.001.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)2.001.002.000.002.002.00
vs Weaker (2)1.001.002.001.000.001.00
Clean sheet %25% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-0 ✓
10.7%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.1%
3-0
5.7%
0-1
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
Dila goals ↓
Saburtalo goals →
01234
08.1%5.6%3.2%1.0%0.3%
111%13%5.5%1.8%0.4%
210%9.7%4.7%1.5%0.4%
35.7%5.5%2.6%0.8%0.2%
42.4%2.3%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dila goals (down), columns = Saburtalo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Samtredia
3.00
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.22
Dinamo Batumi
2.14
Dila
1.64
Samgurali
1.58
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.50
Spaeri
1.50
Saburtalo
1.31
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.03
Sioni
0.95
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
0.22
Dila is 0.33 points better than Saburtalo in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.31).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.42
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.03
Samgurali
1.53
Samtredia
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.33
Dila
1.33
Sioni
1.00
Gagra
1.00
Spaeri
1.00
Telavi
0.81
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
0.78
Dila is 0.08 goals worse than Saburtalo in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Samtredia
0.00
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.81
Dinamo Batumi
0.94
Dila
0.97
Telavi
1.00
Spaeri
1.00
Samgurali
1.22
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.33
Saburtalo
1.36
Gagra
1.55
Sioni
1.66
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
2.81
Dila is 0.39 goals better than Saburtalo in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

DilaDila

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

DilaDila

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (4)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (3)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (1)---0.00.0----
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (4)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (2)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Not collected for this league yet.

🟨 Total Cards

Not collected for this league yet.

⚠️ Total Fouls

Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DilaDila

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L00D00DH·GAG26/02A·TOR04/03H·DIN08/03H·SIO19/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.250.670.000.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.000.330.000.000.001.00
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %75% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L20W11DH·SAM27/02A·GAG04/03H·TOR08/03A·DIN13/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.751.500.500.501.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.500.502.000.001.001.00
vs Weaker (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
Clean sheet %25% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dila over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DilaDila

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D21W21WH·GAG26/02A·TOR04/03H·DIN08/03H·SIO19/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.751.331.000.000.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.330.672.001.000.000.00
vs Weaker (1)0.001.000.001.00--
Clean sheet %25% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W00D00D11DH·SAM27/02A·GAG04/03H·TOR08/03A·DIN13/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.250.500.000.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %75% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dila over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.6%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Dila's squad is €2m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€4m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dila and Saburtalo have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dila's midfield is €1m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€1m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Dila and Saburtalo have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
DIL wins
0
Draws
0
SAB wins

Head-to-head

Dila vs Saburtalo · H/A from DIL
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

DilaDila

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/03/22HDIL Vs Sioni2-1
08/03/22HDIL Vs Dinamo Batumi2-1
04/03/22ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs DIL1-0
26/02/22HDIL Vs Gagra2-1

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/03/22ADinamo Batumi Vs SAB2-2
08/03/22HSAB Vs Torpedo Kutaisi2-0
04/03/22AGagra Vs SAB1-0
27/02/22HSAB Vs Samgurali2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dila
Dila
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWW2.25
HomeWWW3.00
AwayL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %75%100%0%
AVG goals2.503.001.00
Over 1.5 %75%100%0%
Over 2.5 %75%100%0%
Over 3.5 %0%0%0%
Scored1.502.000.00
Conceded1.001.001.00
BTTS75%100%0%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWD1.75
HomeWW3.00
AwayLD0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%100%0%
AVG goals2.502.502.50
Over 1.5 %75%100%50%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %25%0%50%
Scored1.502.001.00
Conceded1.000.501.50
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet25%50%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi3680
67%
2.2
7329+44
2.8
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3132.00.8
-
2Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi3677
64%
2.1
8734+53
3.4
83%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3122.40.9
-
3DilaDila3659
47%
1.6
4835+13
2.3
67%
53%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.31.0
-
4SamguraliSamgurali3657
42%
1.6
5544+11
2.8
86%
58%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.2
-
5Torpedo KutaisiTorpedo Kutaisi3654
42%
1.5
4848+0
2.7
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.31.3
-
6SaburtaloSaburtalo3647
36%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.41.4
-
7TelaviTelavi3639
22%
1.1
2936-7
1.8
61%
22%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.0
-
8GagraGagra3839
26%
1.0
3859-21
2.6
74%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.6
-
9SioniSioni3836
21%
0.9
3863-25
2.7
76%
50%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
10Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi368
3%
0.2
28101-73
3.6
86%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
11SamtrediaSamtredia26
100%
3.0
30+3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.0
-
12SpaeriSpaeri23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →

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