PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Dila vs Saburtalo Result & Analysis

Date: 30/08/2022
Time: 17:00
Final 3-0
Dila
Dila
Vs
47%
29%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Dila are tipped to win, with the model favouring a home victory at 47%. The match is expected to see about 2.4 goals, a modest tally that leans toward a 2-goal total (27%). The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.7% chance. Dila, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.0 goal scored and 0.75 conceded, while Saburtalo, on the road, average 0.86 scored and 1.0 conceded. The probabilities for each outcome are 47% home win, 29% draw, and 24% away win. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 78.5%, Under 3.5 at 77.5% (hit), Under 5.5 cards at 75.9%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.2%, and Over 1.5 at 70.8% (hit). The recent form narrative shows Dila coming off a defeat but rallying to a strong run, whereas Saburtalo is still recovering from four straight losses.

Results analysis

Dila’s recent run of four wins after a defeat set the tone for a decisive home victory, while Saburtalo struggled with four straight losses. The final score was 3-0, confirming the home win that the model predicted. The pre-match favourite was a home win with a 47% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections also proved accurate: the Under 3.5 total, with a 77.5% chance, hit, and the Over 1.5, at 70.8%, also hit. All suggested picks settled as predicted, underscoring the model’s strong performance for this match.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dila win✓ Hit
47.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo win✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DilaDila

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W00D10W11D14L02L00D01L03L12LH·LOK27/05A·TEL15/06H·SAM20/06H·GAG24/06A·TOR29/06A·KUP07/07H·KUP14/07H·DIN14/08A·DIN20/08H·SIO25/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.041.380.770.581.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.751.311.000.750.501.88
vs Weaker (9)1.440.562.000.800.750.25
Clean sheet %36% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W31W33D01L10W10W24L24L23L12LH·TEL21/06H·SAM25/06A·GAG29/06H·PAR07/07A·PAR14/07H·FCS21/07A·FCS28/07H·TOR15/08A·DIN21/08H·DIN26/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.331.571.141.081.54
vs Stronger (2)1.502.001.000.002.004.00
vs Similar (15)1.001.331.121.620.861.00
vs Weaker (10)1.801.202.400.601.201.80
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.8%
Under 1.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.5%
Under 2.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.5%
Under 3.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
11.7%
0-0
10.2%
2-0
9.5%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
6.0%
3-0 ✓
4.6%
Dila goals ↓
Saburtalo goals →
01234
010%7.3%4.1%1.3%0.3%
112%14%6.0%1.9%0.5%
29.5%9.1%4.4%1.4%0.3%
34.6%4.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%
41.7%1.6%0.8%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dila goals (down), columns = Saburtalo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Samtredia
3.00
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.22
Dinamo Batumi
2.14
Dila
1.64
Samgurali
1.58
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.50
Spaeri
1.50
Saburtalo
1.31
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.03
Sioni
0.95
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
0.22
Dila is 0.33 points better than Saburtalo in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.31).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.42
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.03
Samgurali
1.53
Samtredia
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.33
Dila
1.33
Sioni
1.00
Gagra
1.00
Spaeri
1.00
Telavi
0.81
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
0.78
Dila is 0.08 goals worse than Saburtalo in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Samtredia
0.00
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.81
Dinamo Batumi
0.94
Dila
0.97
Telavi
1.00
Spaeri
1.00
Samgurali
1.22
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.33
Saburtalo
1.36
Gagra
1.55
Sioni
1.66
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
2.81
Dila is 0.39 goals better than Saburtalo in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

DilaDila

For 4.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 7.0

🚩 Corners

70524377H·KUPA·KUP
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.5

🟨 Cards

60324256H·KUPA·KUP
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

For 4.5 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.2

🚩 Corners

13027475871911138A·FCSH·FCSA·PARH·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.0

🟨 Cards

60331423136554A·FCSH·FCSA·PARH·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

DilaDila

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (25)7.07.07.00.40.40.5---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (16)7.07.07.00.70.60.8---
vs Weaker (9)---0.00.00.0---
% over line0%0%0%8%8%8%---
% under line100%100%100%92%92%92%---
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (27)10.29.511.00.70.60.8---
vs Stronger (2)10.011.09.05.55.06.0---
vs Similar (15)10.58.013.00.60.50.7---
vs Weaker (10)---0.00.00.0---
% over line50%50%50%15%14%15%---
% under line50%50%50%85%86%85%---
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Saburtalo
10.2
Dinamo Tbilisi
8.0
Dinamo Batumi
7.5
Dila
7.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Dila
5.5
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.7
Dinamo Tbilisi
4.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dinamo Batumi
27.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.1%
Under 9.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.8%
Under 3.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DilaDila

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D00D10W00D01L01L00D00D01L10WH·LOK27/05A·TEL15/06H·SAM20/06H·GAG24/06A·TOR29/06A·KUP07/07H·KUP14/07H·DIN14/08A·DIN20/08H·SIO25/08
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.240.360.460.150.000.58
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.120.500.250.120.000.88
vs Weaker (9)0.440.110.800.200.000.00
Clean sheet %68% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D11D00D00D10W01L22D02L12LH·TEL21/06H·SAM25/06A·GAG29/06H·PAR07/07A·PAR14/07H·FCS21/07A·FCS28/07H·TOR15/08A·DIN21/08H·DIN26/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.480.560.710.570.230.54
vs Stronger (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (15)0.470.600.750.750.140.43
vs Weaker (10)0.500.500.600.400.400.60
Clean sheet %59% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dila over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DilaDila

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D00D11D13L01L00D01L02L02LH·LOK27/05A·TEL15/06H·SAM20/06H·GAG24/06A·TOR29/06A·KUP07/07H·KUP14/07H·DIN14/08A·DIN20/08H·SIO25/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.760.680.920.620.580.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.620.810.750.620.501.00
vs Weaker (9)1.000.441.200.600.750.25
Clean sheet %52% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W22D01L10W00D23L02L21W00DH·TEL21/06H·SAM25/06A·GAG29/06H·PAR07/07A·PAR14/07H·FCS21/07A·FCS28/07H·TOR15/08A·DIN21/08H·DIN26/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.850.780.860.570.851.00
vs Stronger (2)1.001.500.000.002.003.00
vs Similar (15)0.530.730.380.880.710.57
vs Weaker (10)1.300.701.800.200.801.20
Clean sheet %48% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dila over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards78.5%--------
Under 3.577.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards75.9%--------
Under 11.5 corners74.2%--------
Over 1.570.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Dila's squad is €2m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€4m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dila and Saburtalo have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dila's midfield is €1m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€1m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Dila and Saburtalo have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
DIL wins
0
Draws
0
SAB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dila vs Saburtalo · H/A from DIL
DateH/AGameScore
22/05/22ASaburtalo Vs DIL0-2
02/04/22HDIL Vs Saburtalo1-0

DilaDila

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/08/22HDIL Vs Sioni1-2
20/08/22ADinamo Tbilisi Vs DIL3-0
14/08/22HDIL Vs Dinamo Batumi0-1
14/07/22HDIL Vs KuPS0-0
07/07/22AKuPS Vs DIL2-0
29/06/22ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs DIL4-1
24/06/22HDIL Vs Gagra1-1
20/06/22HDIL Vs Samgurali1-0
15/06/22ATelavi Vs DIL0-0
27/05/22HDIL Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi4-1

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/08/22HSAB Vs Dinamo Tbilisi1-2
21/08/22ADinamo Batumi Vs SAB3-2
15/08/22HSAB Vs Torpedo Kutaisi2-4
28/07/22AFCSB Vs SAB4-2
21/07/22HSAB Vs FCSB1-0
14/07/22APartizani Vs SAB0-1
07/07/22HSAB Vs Partizani0-1
29/06/22AGagra Vs SAB3-3
25/06/22HSAB Vs Samgurali3-1
21/06/22HSAB Vs Telavi1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dila
Dila
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.40
HomeWDDLL2.00
AwayWDLLL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%62%17%
AVG goals2.042.151.92
Over 1.5 %60%62%58%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %8%8%8%
Scored1.001.380.58
Conceded1.040.771.33
BTTS36%54%17%
Clean Sheet36%31%42%
Corners7.007.007.00
Cards5.505.006.00
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL1.33
HomeWLWLL1.71
AwayLDWLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %37%50%23%
AVG goals2.672.712.62
Over 1.5 %63%71%54%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %30%29%31%
Scored1.331.571.08
Conceded1.331.141.54
BTTS44%50%38%
Clean Sheet33%36%31%
Corners10.259.5011.00
Cards5.004.505.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi3680
67%
2.2
7329+44
2.8
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3132.00.8
-
2Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi3677
64%
2.1
8734+53
3.4
83%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3122.40.9
-
3DilaDila3659
47%
1.6
4835+13
2.3
67%
53%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.31.0
-
4SamguraliSamgurali3657
42%
1.6
5544+11
2.8
86%
58%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.2
-
5Torpedo KutaisiTorpedo Kutaisi3654
42%
1.5
4848+0
2.7
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.31.3
-
6SaburtaloSaburtalo3647
36%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.41.4
-
7TelaviTelavi3639
22%
1.1
2936-7
1.8
61%
22%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.0
-
8GagraGagra3839
26%
1.0
3859-21
2.6
74%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.6
-
9SioniSioni3836
21%
0.9
3863-25
2.7
76%
50%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
10Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi368
3%
0.2
28101-73
3.6
86%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
11SamtrediaSamtredia26
100%
3.0
30+3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.0
-
12SpaeriSpaeri23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →

← all matches