Dila are tipped to lift the match, with a 54% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw, and only an 18% chance of Torpedo Kutaisi winning. The model favours a 1-0 scoreline, a 14% probability, and expects a modest 2.3 goals overall, with the most likely total of two goals at 28%. Dila, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while Torpedo Kutaisi, on the road, average only 0.33 scored and 2.33 conceded. The model’s selection list contains only one pick: Under 3.5, a 79.8% probability. The match is expected to be a tight affair, with Dila’s recent form showing a win-winning streak after a defeat, and Torpedo Kutaisi struggling to score after two losses.
Results analysis
The win extends Dila’s recent run, turning a narrow loss into a decisive victory. The model’s favourite, Home win, with a 54% probability, proved correct as Dila edged Torpedo Kutaisi 2-0. The predicted 2-goal total materialised, and the most likely scoreline of 1-0 was close to the actual 2-0 result. The model’s single selection, Under 3.5 goals at 79.8%, hit as well, keeping the match under the expected 2.3-goal threshold. Both the favoured outcome and the suggested pick performed as forecast, confirming the model’s accuracy for this Erovnuli Liga encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dila win✓ Hit
53.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi win✗ Miss
18.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dila
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.80
1.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.20
1.00
1.67
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.60
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.70
1.00
2.00
0.60
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
2.17
0.33
2.00
0.33
2.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.2%
Under 1.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.5%
Under 2.5
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.2%
Under 3.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.0%
1-1
13.1%
2-0 ✓
11.5%
0-0
11.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
6.6%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
4.7%
Dila goals ↓
Torpedo Kutaisi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.6%
3.1%
0.8%
0.2%
1
14%
13%
4.7%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.0%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
5.8%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.2%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dila goals (down), columns = Torpedo Kutaisi goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Samtredia
3.00
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.22
Dinamo Batumi
2.14
Dila
1.64
Samgurali
1.58
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.50
Spaeri
1.50
Saburtalo
1.31
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.03
Sioni
0.95
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
0.22
Dila is 0.14 points better than Torpedo Kutaisi in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.42
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.03
Samgurali
1.53
Samtredia
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.33
Dila
1.33
Sioni
1.00
Gagra
1.00
Spaeri
1.00
Telavi
0.81
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
0.78
Dila and Torpedo Kutaisi are level in goals scored per game (both 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Samtredia
0.00
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.81
Dinamo Batumi
0.94
Dila
0.97
Telavi
1.00
Spaeri
1.00
Samgurali
1.22
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.33
Saburtalo
1.36
Gagra
1.55
Sioni
1.66
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
2.81
Dila is 0.36 goals better than Torpedo Kutaisi in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dila
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Torpedo Kutaisi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dila
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dila
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.40
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
44% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dila over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dila
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.50
1.40
0.80
0.80
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.20
0.40
1.67
0.67
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.60
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.56
0.50
0.75
0.20
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dila over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Dila's squad is €3m less valuable than Torpedo Kutaisi's (€4m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dila and Torpedo Kutaisi have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dila's midfield is €2m less valuable than Torpedo Kutaisi's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Dila and Torpedo Kutaisi have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →