PythiaFootballBETA
This match between Dinamo Minsk II and Niva in the Belarus 1. Division is finely balanced, with Dinamo Minsk II struggling at home, having suffered three consecutive defeats, and Niva riding a four-game winning streak. The model's selection is an Away win, with a 38% probability. Dinamo Minsk II has a 34% chance of winning at home, while a draw is 28% likely. The expected total goals is 2.7, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 13.3%. Niva has a strong away form, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding 1, while Dinamo Minsk II struggles at home, scoring 0.33 goals and conceding 0.67. The model's selection is an Away win, with a 38% probability. The model also suggests Over 1.5 with 77.2% probability and Under 3.5 with 70.4% probability. Dinamo Minsk II has a 34% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 38% chance of losing.
Dinamo Minsk II's recent struggles continued as they succumbed to a 1-2 defeat, extending their winless run. The away team, Niva, capitalized on their momentum, securing a fourth consecutive win. The model's selection, an Away win, was correct, given a 38% pre-match probability. Niva's away form, averaging 2 goals scored and 1 conceded, proved decisive. The model's call on Over 1.5 goals was also correct, with a 77.2% probability, as the final score reflected this outcome. Meanwhile, the Under 3.5 goals selection hit, with a 70.4% predicted probability.
Dinamo Minsk II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.35 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.63 | 1.58 | 0.25 | 1.38 | 0.91 | 1.73 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 2.60 | 0.60 | 4.50 | 0.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
Niva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.97 | 1.67 | 1.80 | 1.67 | 2.13 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.93 | 2.21 | 1.57 | 2.57 | 2.29 | 1.86 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 2.00 | 1.19 | 2.00 | 0.88 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
| Niva goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 13% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 5.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 70.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/07/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 05/08/24 | A | 5-1 | |
| 06/04/24 | H | 1-2 |
Dinamo Minsk II| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 26/11/25 | H | 4-0 | |
| 20/11/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 17/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 13/11/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 10/11/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 26/10/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 22/10/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 11/10/25 | H | 0-1 |
Niva| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 23/11/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 17/11/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/11/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 27/10/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/10/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 7-0 | |
| 12/10/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 04/10/25 | A | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Niva | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 2 |  Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 |  Minsk II | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 4 |  Osipovichy | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 |  Lida | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 6 |  Smorgon | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 100% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 |  Volna | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 4.5 | 83% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | - |
| 8 |  Bumprom | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 9 |  Orsha | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 10 |  Shakhter Soligorsk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 4.5 | 83% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.7 | - |
| 11 |  Uni Minsk | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 60% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 12 |  Slonim | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 13 |  Ostrovets FC | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3.2 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 14 |  FC Slutsk | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 15 |  FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 |  Gomel II | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 17 |  BATE II | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.6 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.2 | - |
| 18 | Dinamo Minsk II | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2.6 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 2.0 | - |