The model favours an away win, with a 43% chance for Volna, 29% for a Dinamo Minsk II victory and 29% for a draw. Expect about 2.6 goals, most likely a 2-goal total at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability, reflecting the balanced scoring rates: Dinamo Minsk II averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Volna nets 1.64 and concedes 1.36 on the road. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 74.3% and Under 3.5 at 73.8%. The recent form narrative shows Dinamo Minsk II on a two-game winning streak after a 3-2 win over Smorgon, whereas Volna has endured three straight defeats, losing 0-2 to Ostrovets FC. These dynamics underline why the model leans toward a Volna triumph, though the 1-1 outcome remains the most likely exact score.
Results analysis
The win extends Dinamo Minsk II’s two-game winning run, but Volna’s 0-4 triumph was a decisive statement. The model’s favourite, an away win, came through with a 43% probability, and the prediction proved correct. Over 1.5 goals, at 74.3% confidence, hit as the match produced four goals. The Under 3.5 selection, at 73.8%, missed, as the total surpassed the threshold. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (13.6%) was not reached, nor the 0-1 or 1-2 outcomes. The expected total of 2.6 goals was exceeded, confirming the model’s assessment of a high-scoring affair. Overall, the predictions largely aligned with the final result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Minsk II win✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Volna win✓ Hit
42.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Minsk II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
1.36
1.00
0.88
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
1.09
1.30
1.18
1.27
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.80
3.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.50
1.93
1.73
1.93
1.27
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.50
1.33
1.00
3.00
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.67
1.71
1.70
2.10
1.64
1.36
vs Weaker (5)
3.20
0.60
4.00
1.00
2.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.9%
Under 2.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.3%
No
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
9.6%
1-2
9.0%
0-0
8.7%
0-2
7.9%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
7.1%
2-2
5.1%
Dinamo Minsk II goals ↓
Volna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
9.6%
7.9%
3.8%
1.4%
1
7.3%
14%
9.0%
4.3%
1.6%
2
4.9%
7.1%
5.1%
2.5%
0.9%
3
1.9%
2.7%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Minsk II goals (down), columns = Volna goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Baranovichi
2.18
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.97
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.88
Belshina
1.85
Lida
1.74
Bumprom
1.74
Niva
1.62
BATE II
1.56
Minsk II
1.50
Ostrovets FC
1.50
Volna
1.41
ABFF U19
1.24
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Uni Minsk
1.06
Gomel II
0.82
Orsha
0.74
Osipovichy
0.64
Slonim
0.61
Dinamo Minsk II is 0.24 points worse than Volna in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Baranovichi
2.21
Lida
2.18
BATE II
2.06
Niva
2.00
Volna
1.91
Belshina
1.88
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.74
Ostrovets FC
1.65
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.65
Bumprom
1.65
Uni Minsk
1.59
Minsk II
1.44
ABFF U19
1.29
Orsha
1.24
Osipovichy
1.18
Gomel II
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
1.00
Slonim
0.91
Dinamo Minsk II is 0.91 goals worse than Volna in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Baranovichi
0.85
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Bumprom
1.06
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Belshina
1.18
Lida
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.41
ABFF U19
1.44
BATE II
1.53
Volna
1.62
Niva
1.65
Uni Minsk
2.12
Slonim
2.33
Osipovichy
2.33
Gomel II
2.44
Orsha
2.74
Dinamo Minsk II is 0.44 goals better than Volna in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Minsk II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.79
0.50
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.61
0.73
0.64
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
1.50
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
0.80
0.60
1.13
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.81
0.50
0.60
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
0.20
2.50
0.50
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Minsk II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.57
0.50
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.70
0.45
0.64
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
1.50
0.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
1.13
1.13
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.33
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.90
1.20
1.50
0.64
0.36
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (25)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
UM (29)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Dinamo Minsk II and Volna have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Dinamo Minsk II and Volna have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (6)
€1m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
BAR (4)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Dinamo Minsk II and Volna have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (10)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Dinamo Minsk II and Volna have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →