Pythia gives Dinamo Tbilisi a 50% win probability against Saburtalo in the Georgia: Erovnuli Liga on 2022-05-16, with 32% for the draw and 18% for Saburtalo. The model estimates around 2.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-0 the most likely scoreline (16.9%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (86%).
Results analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi, riding a win-heavy run, were the pre-match favourite to beat Saburtalo, with the model assigning a 50% chance of a home victory. The game, however, ended in a 0-0 draw, leaving the model’s call wrong. The match also matched the model’s prediction of a low-scoring affair, with the most likely total of 2 goals and the 1-0, 0-0, 1-1 outcomes each hovering around 15% probability. The only other selection made by the model was Under 3.5 goals, which hit at an 86.3% probability. Dinamo’s recent form of five games with four wins and one draw contrasts sharply with Saburtalo’s four-game losing streak, yet neither side could break the deadlock.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi win✗ Miss
50.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo win✗ Miss
18.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.69
0.85
1.50
0.33
1.86
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
2.11
0.89
1.75
0.25
2.40
1.40
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
46% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.46
1.00
2.00
0.86
0.83
1.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
1.00
2.67
0.67
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
38% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
59.8%
Under 1.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
31.5%
Under 2.5
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.7%
Under 3.5
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
36.8%
No
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.9%
0-0 ✓
15.2%
1-1
13.4%
2-0
11.7%
0-1
8.2%
2-1
7.9%
3-0
5.0%
1-2
4.1%
Dinamo Tbilisi goals ↓
Saburtalo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
8.2%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
1
17%
13%
4.1%
0.9%
0.2%
2
12%
7.9%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
3
5.0%
3.4%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
4
1.6%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Tbilisi goals (down), columns = Saburtalo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Samtredia
3.00
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.22
Dinamo Batumi
2.14
Dila
1.64
Samgurali
1.58
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.50
Spaeri
1.50
Saburtalo
1.31
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.03
Sioni
0.95
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
0.22
Dinamo Tbilisi is 0.92 points better than Saburtalo in terms of average points per game (2.22 vs 1.31).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.42
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.03
Samgurali
1.53
Samtredia
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.33
Dila
1.33
Gagra
1.00
Sioni
1.00
Spaeri
1.00
Telavi
0.81
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
0.78
Dinamo Tbilisi is 0.61 goals better than Saburtalo in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Samtredia
0.00
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.81
Dinamo Batumi
0.94
Dila
0.97
Telavi
1.00
Spaeri
1.00
Samgurali
1.22
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.33
Saburtalo
1.36
Gagra
1.55
Sioni
1.66
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
2.81
Dinamo Tbilisi is 0.56 goals better than Saburtalo in terms of goals conceded per game (0.81 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Saburtalo
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Tbilisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Tbilisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
0.58
0.83
0.17
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.62
1.00
0.00
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
58% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.54
0.38
0.71
0.43
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
69% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Tbilisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.17
0.67
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.38
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
0.62
1.29
0.43
0.50
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.57
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.67
2.00
0.33
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
54% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi and Saburtalo have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi and Saburtalo have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi's midfield is €1m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi's defence is €1m more valuable than Saburtalo's (€3m vs €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Batumi
Dila
Samgurali
Torpedo Kutaisi
Telavi
Gagra
Sioni
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Samtredia
Spaeri