Dinamo Tbilisi are the clear favourites, with a 51% chance of victory, a 25% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of Saburtalo winning. The model expects an average of three goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 11.7% chance that the match ends in a draw. Dinamo have been prolific at home, scoring 2.25 goals per game and conceding just 1.12 against teams of similar strength, while Saburtalo, on the road, averages only one goal for and 2.43 against. Dinamo’s recent form is buoyant, coming off a win and having won four of their last five, whereas Saburtalo are struggling after four straight defeats and a 0-2 loss. The model’s only selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.6% probability.
Results analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi, coming off a win, extended their strong run with a 1-0 victory over Saburtalo, who were still recovering from four straight defeats. The match finished well above the model’s expected total of three goals, with only one goal scored. The pre-match favourite was Dinamo Tbilisi, given a 51% chance of winning, and the model’s call was correct. The only suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.6% probability, but it missed as the game produced a single goal. All figures are taken directly from the model’s predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi win✓ Hit
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo win✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.17
2.00
0.87
1.87
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.94
1.12
2.25
1.12
1.62
1.12
vs Weaker (14)
1.93
1.21
1.71
0.57
2.14
1.86
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.47
1.80
1.20
1.27
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.93
1.75
1.50
1.00
2.43
vs Weaker (15)
1.67
1.00
1.86
0.86
1.50
1.12
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.8%
No
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.1%
1-0 ✓
7.8%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
5.9%
0-0
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
Dinamo Tbilisi goals ↓
Saburtalo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
4.7%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
1
7.8%
12%
6.4%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.1%
9.7%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.9%
5.9%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.3%
2.7%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Tbilisi goals (down), columns = Saburtalo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Saburtalo
2.08
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.94
Dila
1.89
Dinamo Batumi
1.53
Rustavi
1.50
Samgurali
1.22
Kolkheti Poti
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.08
Gagra
1.05
Sioni
1.00
Telavi
0.97
Samtredia
0.75
Dinamo Tbilisi is 1.00 points worse than Saburtalo in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 2.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Saburtalo
2.06
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.61
Dila
1.61
Samgurali
1.42
Kolkheti Poti
1.33
Dinamo Batumi
1.17
Gagra
1.00
Rustavi
1.00
Sioni
1.00
Samtredia
0.92
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.92
Telavi
0.89
Dinamo Tbilisi is 1.14 goals worse than Saburtalo in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 2.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dila
0.83
Rustavi
1.00
Sioni
1.00
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.11
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Telavi
1.18
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.22
Saburtalo
1.28
Samgurali
1.36
Gagra
1.45
Kolkheti Poti
1.61
Samtredia
1.69
Dinamo Tbilisi is 0.06 goals better than Saburtalo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dinamo Tbilisi
For 10.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Saburtalo
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Tbilisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
11.0
4.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
25.0
25.0
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
7.8
11.0
4.5
0.4
0.1
0.7
25.0
25.0
-
vs Weaker (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
2%
0%
4%
100%
100%
-
% under line
50%
0%
100%
98%
100%
96%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dinamo Tbilisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
1.33
0.40
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.62
1.88
0.50
0.12
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.64
0.71
0.29
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.27
0.33
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.60
1.38
0.25
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.53
1.14
0.43
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dinamo Tbilisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.53
0.67
0.47
1.33
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.50
0.38
0.62
1.50
0.38
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.57
1.00
0.29
1.14
0.86
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.53
0.87
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
1.33
0.38
1.25
0.43
1.43
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.47
0.71
0.43
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi and Saburtalo have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
KP (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi and Saburtalo have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi's midfield is €1m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
Dinamo Tbilisi's defence is €1m more valuable than Saburtalo's (€3m vs €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Torpedo Kutaisi
Dila
Dinamo Batumi
Samgurali
Kolkheti Poti
Gagra
Telavi
Samtredia
Rustavi
Sioni