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Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Result & Analysis

Date: 23/05/2026
Time: 16:45
Final 0-0
Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
Vs
72%
17%
10%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Croatia: HNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Dinamo Zagreb is the clear favourite to win at home against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, with a 72% probability of a home win. The model rates them highly due to their opponent's weakness on the road, where Lokomotiva has averaged just 0.57 goals scored per game against stronger opponents. Meanwhile, Dinamo Zagreb has been in good form, having won their last three home games and scoring an average of 2.79 goals per game at home.

The expected total number of goals in the match is 3.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely score is 2-0 to Dinamo Zagreb, with a probability of 10.6%.

Dinamo Zagreb has been scoring an average of 2.79 goals per game at home and conceding just 1.21 goals per game. Lokomotiva, on the other hand, has averaged just 0.57 goals scored per game away against stronger opponents and conceded 1.57 goals per game.

The model's selection is the Home win, with a 72.2% probability. Other selections include Over 1.5, with a 86.1% probability, and Over 21.5 fouls, with a 74.1% probability. The home win percentage is 72%, the draw percentage is 17%, and the away win percentage is 10%.

Results analysis

Dinamo Zagreb's 3-game winning run came to an abrupt end as they were held to a 0-0 draw by NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, the actual result of the match. The pre-match favourite, Dinamo Zagreb, failed to deliver, with the model's pick, Home win, coming up short. The model's selection was the correct favourite, but its call was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 72%. The model's other selections, Over 1.5 and Over 21.5 fouls, also missed the mark, with probabilities of 86.1% and 74.1% respectively.

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Dinamo Zagreb win✗ Miss
72.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
17.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win✗ Miss
10.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-742W50W70W41W22D20W21W21W20W41WH·NK 14/03A·NK 21/03H·NK 04/04A·VUK13/04H·HNK18/04A·IST22/04H·NK 26/04A·HNK02/05H·HNK09/05A·NK 17/05
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
3.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.601.232.671.332.531.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.003.001.003.001.003.00
vs Weaker (26)2.850.962.791.212.920.67
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L05L11D20W20W21W00D03L11D11DA·HNK15/03H·DIN21/03A·VUK07/04H·IST11/04A·HNK17/04H·NK 21/04A·NK 25/04H·HNK03/05A·NK 09/05H·HNK16/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.501.401.400.801.60
vs Stronger (14)0.791.861.002.140.571.57
vs Similar (16)1.381.191.750.751.001.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.1%
Under 2.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.3%
Under 3.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
8.9%
1-1
8.1%
3-1
7.8%
1-0
7.6%
4-0
5.6%
4-1
4.9%
Dinamo Zagreb goals ↓
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals →
01234
04.1%2.2%1.3%0.4%0.1%
17.6%8.1%3.3%1.0%0.2%
211%9.3%4.1%1.2%0.3%
38.9%7.8%3.5%1.0%0.2%
45.6%4.9%2.2%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dinamo Zagreb goals (down), columns = NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
HNK Gorica
1.14
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
NK Osijek
0.97
Vukovar
0.78
Dinamo Zagreb is 1.17 points better than NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in terms of average points per game (2.39 vs 1.22).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.11
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
Vukovar
1.03
NK Osijek
0.75
Dinamo Zagreb is 1.47 goals better than NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in terms of goals scored per game (2.58 vs 1.11).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
Vukovar
2.03
Dinamo Zagreb is 0.67 goals better than NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.44).

⏱ïļ Possession

Avg possession %
HNK Hajduk Split
58%
Dinamo Zagreb
58%
HNK Rijeka
52%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
Istra 1961
50%
NK Osijek
49%
NK Slaven Belupo
49%
HNK Gorica
46%
NK Varazdin
44%
Vukovar
43%
Dinamo Zagreb is 7.6 percentage points better than NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in terms of average possession (58% vs 50%).

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb

For 6.2 · Against 3.4 · Total 9.6

ðŸšĐ Corners

16015328810442776311735651614614911105A·NK H·HNKA·HNKH·NK A·ISTH·HNKA·VUKH·NK A·NK H·NK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.3

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60122211151113312421422624426A·NK H·HNKA·HNKH·NK H·HNKA·VUKA·NK A·HNKH·HNKA·GEN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 10.3 · Total 20.3

⚠ïļ Fouls

31010111311134412111016154141279108921241716213118191917A·NK H·HNKA·HNKH·NK A·ISTH·HNKA·VUKH·NK A·NK H·NK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb

For 5.1 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.6

ðŸšĐ Corners

18084521199531654443710512721887981015H·HNKA·NK H·HNKA·NK H·NK A·HNKH·ISTA·VUKH·DINA·HNK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60123342111313131111536124442H·HNKA·NK H·HNKA·NK H·NK A·HNKH·ISTA·VUKH·DINA·HNK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 13.4 · Total 26.7

⚠ïļ Fouls

360131116151714151513912141313181810961624313130222626361922H·HNKA·NK H·HNKA·NK H·NK A·HNKH·ISTA·VUKH·DINA·HNK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.79.79.73.83.93.823.422.024.8
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (6)9.59.09.83.53.53.519.712.523.2
vs Weaker (44)9.79.79.73.93.93.823.922.825.1
% over line47%50%44%46%44%48%57%54%60%
% under line53%50%56%54%56%52%43%46%40%
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.39.09.64.34.04.526.826.826.8
vs Stronger (19)9.09.09.04.44.24.726.626.926.3
vs Similar (31)9.58.910.04.23.94.426.926.727.1
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line44%42%46%68%65%71%90%92%88%
% under line56%58%54%32%35%29%10%8%12%
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
NK Osijek
9.8
Dinamo Zagreb
9.7
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9.3
NK Varazdin
9.3
Istra 1961
9.2
HNK Hajduk Split
9.1
HNK Rijeka
9.0
Vukovar
9.0
HNK Gorica
8.6
NK Slaven Belupo
8.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
NK Varazdin
4.9
NK Osijek
4.8
HNK Rijeka
4.8
Istra 1961
4.7
HNK Hajduk Split
4.6
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.3
HNK Gorica
4.3
NK Slaven Belupo
4.3
Vukovar
4.3
Dinamo Zagreb
4.2

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.8
HNK Hajduk Split
26.7
HNK Rijeka
26.3
NK Osijek
26.3
Vukovar
25.9
HNK Gorica
25.7
NK Varazdin
24.9
NK Slaven Belupo
24.8
Dinamo Zagreb
23.4
Istra 1961
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.8%
Under 9.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.9%
Under 3.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
75.8%
Under 21.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W30W10W10W20W00D11D10W01LH·NK 14/03A·NK 21/03H·NK 04/04A·VUK13/04H·HNK18/04A·IST22/04H·NK 26/04A·HNK02/05H·HNK09/05A·NK 17/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.631.000.731.200.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.501.001.002.000.330.67
vs Weaker (26)1.190.581.000.641.420.50
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L03L00D20W10W11D00D01L01L11DA·HNK15/03H·DIN21/03A·VUK07/04H·IST11/04A·HNK17/04H·NK 21/04A·NK 25/04H·HNK03/05A·NK 09/05H·HNK16/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.800.670.800.400.80
vs Stronger (14)0.211.000.431.140.000.86
vs Similar (16)0.810.620.880.500.750.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls87.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.586.1%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards80.7%--------
Over 21.5 fouls75.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners75.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards73.1%--------
Home win72.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (65)
€49m
HHS (29)
€34m
NV (27)
€11m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (31)
€31m
HHS (10)
€15m
NV (9)
€6m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (7)
€7m
DZ (2)
€2m
NV (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HR (27)
€12m
HHS (13)
€11m
NV (14)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · H/A from DZ
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26ANK Lokomotiva Zagreb Vs DZ0-5
20/12/25HDZ Vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb2-0
05/10/25ANK Lokomotiva Zagreb Vs DZ2-1
17/05/25ANK Lokomotiva Zagreb Vs DZ1-1
15/03/25HDZ Vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb3-0
14/12/24ANK Lokomotiva Zagreb Vs DZ3-1
28/09/24HDZ Vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb5-1
21/04/24ANK Lokomotiva Zagreb Vs DZ0-1

Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26ANK Slaven Belupo Vs DZ1-4
09/05/26HDZ Vs HNK Hajduk Split2-0
02/05/26AHNK Gorica Vs DZ1-2
26/04/26HDZ Vs NK Varazdin2-1
22/04/26AIstra 1961 Vs DZ0-2
18/04/26HDZ Vs HNK Rijeka2-2
13/04/26AVukovar Vs DZ1-4
04/04/26HDZ Vs NK Osijek7-0
21/03/26ANK Lokomotiva Zagreb Vs DZ0-5
14/03/26HDZ Vs NK Slaven Belupo4-2

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26HNLZ Vs HNK Hajduk Split1-1
09/05/26ANK Varazdin Vs NLZ1-1
03/05/26HNLZ Vs HNK Rijeka0-3
25/04/26ANK Osijek Vs NLZ0-0
21/04/26HNLZ Vs NK Slaven Belupo2-1
17/04/26AHNK Gorica Vs NLZ0-2
11/04/26HNLZ Vs Istra 19612-0
07/04/26AVukovar Vs NLZ1-1
21/03/26HNLZ Vs Dinamo Zagreb0-5
15/03/26AHNK Hajduk Split Vs NLZ2-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
Croatia: HNL
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.18
HomeWWDWW2.36
AwayWWWWW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %68%76%60%
AVG goals3.443.643.24
Over 1.5 %92%92%92%
Over 2.5 %70%80%60%
Over 3.5 %48%52%44%
Scored2.402.602.20
Conceded1.041.041.04
BTTS56%60%52%
Clean Sheet36%36%36%
Corners9.699.679.72
Cards4.244.623.92
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Croatia: HNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDD1.20
HomeLWWLD1.46
AwayLDWDD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%38%17%
AVG goals2.542.422.67
Over 1.5 %88%81%96%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %16%15%17%
Scored1.141.191.08
Conceded1.401.231.58
BTTS62%58%67%
Clean Sheet20%27%12%
Corners9.288.969.62
Cards4.354.204.50

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb3686
75%
2.4
9328+65
3.4
92%
69%
42%
9.6
44%
4.4
50%
24.2
61%
66
332302.60.8
58%
2HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split3668
56%
1.9
6136+25
2.7
81%
44%
28%
9.3
50%
4.7
57%
27.1
89%
34
158111.71.0
58%
3NK VarazdinNK Varazdin3654
42%
1.5
4746+1
2.6
83%
47%
28%
9.6
46%
5.0
74%
25.4
83%
11
6151.31.3
44%
4HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka3653
39%
1.5
4936+13
2.4
69%
42%
28%
9.8
63%
4.7
68%
26.1
86%
49
317121.41.0
52%
5NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb3644
28%
1.2
4052-12
2.6
89%
42%
19%
8.8
42%
4.1
62%
26.5
86%
0
0001.11.4
50%
6Istra 1961Istra 19613643
33%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
75%
50%
19%
10.0
49%
4.6
72%
23.8
66%
0
0001.11.4
50%
7HNK GoricaHNK Gorica3641
31%
1.1
4048-8
2.4
72%
44%
25%
8.8
43%
4.4
51%
25.0
74%
0
0001.11.3
46%
8NK Slaven BelupoNK Slaven Belupo3641
28%
1.1
4661-15
3.0
86%
61%
36%
7.9
23%
4.4
69%
26.3
77%
0
0001.31.7
49%
9NK OsijekNK Osijek3635
22%
1.0
2749-22
2.1
64%
31%
17%
10.2
49%
5.2
71%
28.3
91%
0
0000.81.4
49%
10VukovarVukovar3628
17%
0.8
3773-36
3.1
83%
58%
36%
9.0
40%
4.3
57%
25.9
73%
0
0001.02.0
43%
Croatia: HNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →

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