Dravinja is expected to emerge victorious in this Slovenia: 2. SNL encounter against Bilje, with a 52% chance of a home win, 27% chance of a draw, and 22% chance of an away win. The model's pick is indeed a home win, and it's forecasted that the match will see an average of 2.7 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.7%. Dravinja has been impressive at home, scoring an average of 1.11 goals per game and conceding 0.89, while facing opponents of similar strength. Bilje, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring 0.67 goals and conceding 1.56, when facing similar opponents. The model suggests taking Over 1.5 goals, with a 75.8% probability, and Under 3.5 goals, with a 71.9% probability. Dravinja's recent form has been impressive, with a 2-game winning streak, while Bilje is coming off a win but has had inconsistent results.
Results analysis
Dravinja's 3-1 loss to Bilje marks a shocking upset, as the home side's recent form had been on a downward spiral following two consecutive defeats. The win extends Bilje's two-game winning run, as they capitalized on Dravinja's struggles at home. The model's selection, a home win, was wrong, with only a 51% probability of occurrence. The model's call was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's Over 1.5 selection hit, with a 75.6% probability, while the Under 3.5 pick missed, with a 72.3% chance. The actual result, an away win, was the correct outcome. The final score of 1-3 reflected the convincing nature of Bilje's victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dravinja win✗ Miss
50.9%
Avg Implied 44.2% · @ 2.04
Edge
+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.09
Betano
2.07
Betfair
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.19
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Dafabet
3.25
1xBet
3.24
Bilje win✓ Hit
22.2%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.27
Edge
-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.40
Betano
3.30
William Hil
3.30
Unibet
3.30
1xBet
3.28
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dravinja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.40
1.13
1.33
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (8)
1.38
1.88
1.75
2.00
1.00
1.75
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bilje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.57
1.07
0.73
0.87
2.40
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.67
0.75
1.25
1.20
3.80
vs Similar (18)
0.78
1.17
1.00
0.56
0.56
1.78
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
2.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.6%
@ 1.30+6.0%
Under 1.5
24.4%
@ 2.98-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Under
Marathonbet
3.08
1xBet
3.08
Pinnacle
3.07
Unibet
2.85
Betano
2.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.6%
@ 1.97+3.7%
Under 2.5
50.4%
@ 1.68-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.05
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Bet365
1.70
Betano
1.67
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.7%
@ 3.33+1.0%
Under 3.5
72.3%
@ 1.22-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.25
BetVictor
2.80
Under
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
BetVictor
1.18
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.6%
@ 1.78+1.4%
No
47.4%
@ 1.86-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
William Hil
1.75
No
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.86
Betano
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%@ 5.95+5.8%
1-0
10.3%@ 6.62+4.0%
2-1
9.6%@ 8.30+4.5%
2-0
9.5%@ 9.25+4.9%
0-0
8.2%@ 8.38+3.1%
0-1
5.9%@ 8.62+1.0%
1-2
5.9%@ 11.50+2.3%
3-1
5.3%@ 16.50+2.7%
Dravinja goals ↓
Bilje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
5.9%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
1
10%
13%
5.9%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.5%
9.6%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.2%
5.3%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dravinja goals (down), columns = Bilje goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Dravinja is 0.10 points better than Bilje in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Dravinja is 0.17 goals better than Bilje in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 0.90).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Dravinja is 0.10 goals better than Bilje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dravinja or Draw✗ Miss
77.8%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
22%
covers Dravinja + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dravinja or Bilje✓ Hit
73.1%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
22%
covers Dravinja + Bilje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bilje✓ Hit
49.1%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
22%
covers Draw + Bilje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dravinja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.40
0.73
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.70
0.30
0.70
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bilje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.33
0.47
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.22
0.25
0.75
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.61
0.33
0.44
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dravinja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.73
0.60
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.55
0.70
0.30
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bilje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.73
0.27
0.40
1.40
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.44
0.50
0.50
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.56
0.67
0.11
0.22
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home or Draw
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.6%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.3%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
BetVictor
1.18
-1.0%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Dravinja and Bilje have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Dravinja and Bilje have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Dravinja and Bilje have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Dravinja and Bilje have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Beltinci
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice