The model favours an away win, with Bistrica holding a 46 % chance to triumph, 28 % for a draw and 26 % for a Dravinja victory. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate-scoring affair, most likely ending 1-1 with a 13.6 % probability. Dravinja’s home form shows a balanced 1.25 goals scored and conceded against similar opponents, while Bistrica’s away numbers are slightly lower at 1.14 scored and 1.21 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Under 6.5 (98.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6 %), Under 5.5 (95.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.6 %), Home under 2.5 goals (90.6 %), Away +2 handicap (89.6 %) and Under 4.5 (88.4 %). Recent form shows Dravinja struggling after three straight defeats, while Bistrica comes off a win, adding context to the predicted outcome.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dravinja win
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bistrica win
50.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dravinja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.53
1.13
1.60
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
2.11
1.50
2.50
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.32
1.10
1.20
1.11
1.44
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bistrica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.33
1.80
1.47
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.31
1.38
1.54
1.62
1.08
1.15
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.00
3.50
0.50
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.0%
Under 2.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.0%
Under 3.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
9.1%
0-0
7.8%
2-1
6.1%
1-0
5.8%
1-3
5.3%
Dravinja goals ↓
Bistrica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
9.8%
9.1%
5.0%
2.1%
1
5.8%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.7%
6.1%
5.1%
2.8%
1.2%
3
1.3%
2.2%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dravinja goals (down), columns = Bistrica goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Dravinja is 0.27 points worse than Bistrica in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Dravinja is 0.60 goals worse than Bistrica in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Dravinja is 0.27 goals worse than Bistrica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dravinja or Draw
49.7%
Avg Implied -
23%
27%
50%
covers Dravinja + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dravinja or Bistrica
73.3%
Avg Implied -
23%
27%
50%
covers Dravinja + Bistrica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bistrica
77.0%
Avg Implied -
23%
27%
50%
covers Draw + Bistrica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dravinja over/under 0.5
Over
65.3%
Under
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5
Over
28.5%
Under
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5
Over
81.0%
Under
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5
Over
49.4%
Under
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5
Over
23.2%
Under
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 3.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dravinja, so a minus line means Dravinja give that many goals of a start and Bistrica receive them. At -1, Dravinja must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dravinja win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dravinja)
Dravinja -2
2.6%
Draw -2
6.4%
Bistrica +2
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dravinja)
Dravinja -1
9.0%
Draw -1
14.0%
Bistrica +1
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dravinja)
Dravinja +1
49.7%
Draw +1
22.7%
Bistrica -1
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dravinja)
Dravinja +2
72.4%
Draw +2
15.7%
Bistrica -2
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dravinja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.40
0.80
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.89
0.75
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.74
0.30
0.80
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bistrica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.69
0.54
0.85
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dravinja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.73
0.80
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.22
0.75
1.50
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.58
0.80
0.40
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bistrica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.07
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.69
1.00
0.77
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Dravinja and Bistrica have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Dravinja and Bistrica have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Dravinja and Bistrica have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Dravinja and Bistrica have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →