Dundalk are tipped to lift the trophy, with the model favouring an away win at 43 %. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals and a 13.2 % chance of a 1-1 draw. Drogheda United, who have scored 1.22 and conceded 1.56 at home against similar opposition, are struggling after a 0-2 loss to St Patrick’s Athl. Dundalk, averaging 1.42 scored and 1.75 conceded away, have been hit by two straight defeats, losing 1-2 to Galway United. Home win probability sits at 29 %, a draw at 28 %, and an away win at 43 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4 %), Under 6.5 (98.1 % with a 7 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.9 % with a 7 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.7 % with a 7 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.7 % with a 7 % edge), Home under 3.5 goals (95.5 % with a 5 % edge) and Away under 3.5 goals (95.2 % with a 6 % edge).
Results analysis
Drogheda United’s recent run of two losses has been halted as the match ended 2-3 in favour of the visitors, confirming the model’s pick of an away win. The prediction, given a 43% probability, proved correct. The model also forecasted a total of 2.8 goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 12.8%. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1%, Under 6.5 at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.4%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.0%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 94.7%. The model’s comprehensive accuracy was evident across all selections.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Drogheda United win✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.13
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.40
Marathonbet
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.15
Dafabet
3.15
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.37
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.56
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Unibet
3.45
1xBet
3.45
Dundalk win✓ Hit
43.4%
Avg Implied 42.9% · @ 2.16
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.20
Unibet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
10Bet
2.18
1xBet
2.18
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Drogheda United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.67
1.00
1.47
1.20
1.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.90
0.40
1.00
0.80
2.80
vs Similar (20)
1.35
1.55
1.30
1.70
1.40
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.47
1.73
1.20
1.47
1.73
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.56
1.56
1.69
1.38
1.42
1.75
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
3.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.5%
@ 1.25+4.4%
Under 1.5
21.5%
@ 3.60-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.76
Unibet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.7%
@ 1.85+2.9%
Under 2.5
46.3%
@ 1.91-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.89
1xBet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.87
Under
Unibet
2.00
SBO
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.4%
@ 3.09+1.3%
Under 3.5
68.6%
@ 1.33-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
1xBet
3.12
10Bet
3.10
Under
Unibet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.9%
@ 1.67+2.3%
No
42.1%
@ 2.08-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.70
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
No
Unibet
2.23
Betfair
2.15
William Hil
2.10
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%@ 6.15+5.6%
1-2
9.2%@ 8.24+3.7%
0-1
8.1%@ 7.67+2.3%
2-1
7.4%@ 10.06+2.9%
0-2
7.3%@ 10.21+2.9%
0-0
7.1%@ 10.21+2.7%
1-0
6.3%@ 9.53+1.6%
2-2
5.8%@ 12.12+2.1%
Drogheda United goals ↓
Dundalk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
8.1%
7.3%
3.8%
1.5%
1
6.3%
13%
9.2%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.7%
7.4%
5.8%
3.0%
1.2%
3
2.0%
3.1%
2.4%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Drogheda United goals (down), columns = Dundalk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.96
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Bohemians
1.72
Dundalk
1.38
Shelbourne
1.30
Galway United
1.21
Derry City
1.17
Waterford
1.10
Drogheda United
0.97
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Drogheda United is 0.41 points worse than Dundalk in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.72
Shamrock Rovers
1.64
Dundalk
1.59
St Patrick's Athl.
1.55
Derry City
1.41
Shelbourne
1.37
Waterford
1.34
Galway United
1.29
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Drogheda United is 0.45 goals worse than Dundalk in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.96
Bohemians
1.17
Derry City
1.38
Shelbourne
1.44
Galway United
1.50
Dundalk
1.55
Sligo Rovers
1.66
Drogheda United
1.66
Waterford
1.66
Drogheda United is 0.10 goals worse than Dundalk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.66 vs 1.55).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Bohemians
59%
St Patrick's Athl.
55%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
46%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
40%
Waterford
39%
Drogheda United is 12.1 percentage points worse than Dundalk in terms of average possession (40% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Drogheda United
For 4.3 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 13.8 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundalk
For 6.7 · Against 3.4 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Drogheda United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.1
10.5
4.4
4.6
4.2
21.7
20.8
22.6
vs Stronger (18)
9.3
9.3
9.2
4.2
5.0
3.4
21.0
20.9
21.1
vs Similar (32)
10.9
10.5
11.2
4.5
4.3
4.7
22.2
20.7
23.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
42%
48%
60%
72%
48%
57%
50%
64%
% under line
55%
58%
52%
40%
28%
52%
43%
50%
36%
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.5
11.2
2.8
3.0
2.6
24.0
21.9
26.3
vs Stronger (3)
8.3
9.0
8.0
7.0
5.0
8.0
30.3
19.0
36.0
vs Similar (33)
11.2
10.6
11.8
3.6
4.1
3.1
23.2
22.2
24.5
vs Weaker (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
70%
71%
69%
38%
36%
40%
74%
64%
85%
% under line
30%
29%
31%
62%
64%
60%
26%
36%
15%
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
11.2
Waterford
10.9
Galway United
10.5
Dundalk
10.4
St Patrick's Athl.
10.3
Drogheda United
10.2
Bohemians
10.0
Shelbourne
9.7
Derry City
9.5
Shamrock Rovers
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.2
Dundalk
5.1
St Patrick's Athl.
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
4.8
Bohemians
4.8
Shelbourne
4.8
Waterford
4.7
Galway United
4.6
Drogheda United
4.5
Sligo Rovers
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Galway United
23.4
Dundalk
23.4
Bohemians
23.3
Derry City
23.0
St Patrick's Athl.
22.9
Shamrock Rovers
22.8
Waterford
22.5
Drogheda United
22.0
Shelbourne
21.3
Sligo Rovers
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.8%
@ 1.59+0.7%
Under 9.5
41.2%
@ 2.21-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.55
Under
Unibet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.19
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.3%
Under 3.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.8%
Under 21.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Drogheda United or Draw✗ Miss
61.2%
Avg Implied 57.1% · @ 1.63
Edge
+4.1%
29%
27%
43%
covers Drogheda United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.69
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.67
William Hil
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Drogheda United or Dundalk✓ Hit
71.5%
Avg Implied 72.7% · @ 1.29
Edge
-1.1%
29%
27%
43%
covers Drogheda United + Dundalk
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Dundalk✓ Hit
67.2%
Avg Implied 70.2% · @ 1.33
Edge
-3.0%
29%
27%
43%
covers Draw + Dundalk
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.8%
@ 1.33+2.3%
Under
28.2%
@ 3.04-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.07
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Drogheda United over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.1%
@ 2.68+1.4%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.43-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.95
Marathonbet
2.78
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.75
BetVictor
2.70
Under
Unibet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
Drogheda United over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 6.45-0.9%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.08+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Drogheda United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 14.88-2.5%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.02+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Dundalk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.2%
@ 1.21-1.4%
Under
24.8%
@ 3.96+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.31
1xBet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Dundalk over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
40.6%
@ 2.09-4.1%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.69+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
Unibet
1.71
1xBet
1.69
10Bet
1.67
Dundalk over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
16.5%
@ 4.49-4.2%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.17+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.19
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Dundalk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 10.26-3.9%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
9.30
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Drogheda United, so a minus line means Drogheda United give that many goals of a start and Dundalk receive them. At -1, Drogheda United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Drogheda United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Drogheda United)Actual: Dundalk
Drogheda United -2
5.0%
@ 15.33-1.0%
Draw -2
9.7%
@ 9.00-0.4%
Dundalk +2
85.3%
@ 1.09+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
17.00
Unibet
12.00
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
8.00
Away
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Handicap -1 (Drogheda United)Actual: Dundalk
Drogheda United -1
14.7%
@ 6.53+0.9%
Draw -1
18.1%
@ 4.78-0.7%
Dundalk +1
67.2%
@ 1.33-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
7.10
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
5.80
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Handicap +1 (Drogheda United)Actual: Draw
Drogheda United +1
61.2%
@ 1.64+6.7%
Draw +1
20.1%
@ 3.81-3.4%
Dundalk -1
18.7%
@ 4.07-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.69
10Bet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Away
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Unibet
3.90
Handicap +2 (Drogheda United)Actual: Drogheda United
Drogheda United +2
81.3%
@ 1.19+5.5%
Draw +2
11.8%
@ 6.23-2.7%
Dundalk -2
6.9%
@ 9.24-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Away
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
8.70
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Drogheda United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.67
0.80
0.20
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.90
0.00
0.80
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.75
1.00
0.80
0.20
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.67
0.33
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.52
0.77
0.38
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.0%
@ 1.36+1.6%
Under 0.5
30.0%
@ 2.94-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.11
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.94
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.0%
@ 2.68-0.5%
Under 1.5
66.0%
@ 1.41+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.83
Betano
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.73
Under
Unibet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.9%
@ 6.64-2.0%
Under 2.5
88.1%
@ 1.08+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.90
Marathonbet
6.90
William Hil
6.50
Under
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.9%
@ 2.21+2.9%
Under
55.1%
@ 1.60-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.22
Superbet
2.20
Under
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
1xBet
1.57
Drogheda United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
11.6%
@ 7.62-0.5%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.05+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.40
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Drogheda United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 18.62-3.2%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Dundalk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.2%
@ 1.89-5.7%
Under
56.8%
@ 1.81+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
10Bet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
Unibet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Dundalk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 5.72-5.2%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.10+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.15
Marathonbet
5.95
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Dundalk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 14.75-4.6%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Drogheda United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.20
0.60
1.80
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.80
0.30
0.90
1.20
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
1.07
0.87
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
1.04
0.92
1.00
0.58
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.0%
@ 1.21+0.2%
Under 0.5
23.0%
@ 3.97-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
3.98
1xBet
3.96
Superbet
3.85
William Hil
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.5%
@ 2.00-5.7%
Under 1.5
59.5%
@ 1.73+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Under
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.75
Betano
1.72
William Hil
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.7%
@ 4.23-4.2%
Under 2.5
82.3%
@ 1.19+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Superbet
4.25
Betano
3.95
Under
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.4%
@ 1.87+3.9%
Under
46.6%
@ 1.83-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.83
Under
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.79
Drogheda United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.4%
@ 5.40+0.4%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.11-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.00
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Drogheda United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 13.50-4.0%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Dundalk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.0%
@ 1.63-8.7%
Under
52.0%
@ 2.13+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Under
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Dundalk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
15.4%
@ 4.03-7.4%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.20+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Dundalk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 9.27-6.4%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.03+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
1xBet
9.30
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.1%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.6%
1.04
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
+0.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.08
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
+2.0%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
86.9%
1.10
Unibet
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
86.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.20
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+7.4%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.5%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.19
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
-
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.3%
1.19
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
81.3%
1.19
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.5%
1.25
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.0%
1.21
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.2%
1.21
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.8%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.5%
1.29
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.8%
1.33
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
-
+2.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Drogheda United
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Doyle30%
Keegan Ancelin20%
Shane Farrell16%
Brandon Kavanagh11%
T. Oluwa11%
Warren Davis11%
Ryan Brennan9%
Conor Keeley8%
Jago Godden8%
Leo Burney6%
Edwin Agbaje4%
Alfie Bates0%
Conor Kane0%
Luke Dennison0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Kieran Cruise0%
Ethan O'Brien0%
J. Bolger0%
Jason Bucknor0%
Dare Kareem0%
Fynn Talley0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Shane Farrell44%
Leo Burney38%
Ryan Brennan32%
Conor Keeley23%
Alfie Bates20%
Jago Godden19%
M. Doyle19%
J. Bolger17%
Edwin Agbaje14%
Ethan O'Brien13%
Jason Bucknor12%
Brandon Kavanagh11%
Conor Kane11%
Kieran Cruise8%
T. Oluwa7%
Luke Dennison6%
Andrew Quinn0%
Warren Davis0%
Keegan Ancelin0%
Dare Kareem0%
Fynn Talley0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Keegan Ancelin20%
Kieran Cruise17%
Brandon Kavanagh15%
Andrew Quinn5%
Ryan Brennan5%
Conor Keeley4%
Jago Godden4%
T. Oluwa4%
Conor Kane4%
Edwin Agbaje4%
Alfie Bates0%
Shane Farrell0%
M. Doyle0%
Luke Dennison0%
Warren Davis0%
Ethan O'Brien0%
J. Bolger0%
Jason Bucknor0%
Leo Burney0%
Dare Kareem0%
Fynn Talley0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Shane Farrell12%
M. Doyle11%
Conor Keeley4%
Jago Godden4%
Brandon Kavanagh4%
T. Oluwa4%
Alfie Bates0%
Ryan Brennan0%
Conor Kane0%
Luke Dennison0%
Edwin Agbaje0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Kieran Cruise0%
Warren Davis0%
Ethan O'Brien0%
J. Bolger0%
Keegan Ancelin0%
Jason Bucknor0%
Leo Burney0%
Dare Kareem0%
Fynn Talley0%
Dundalk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. Horgan33%
Gbemi Arubi32%
Cian Dillon20%
Danny Mullen18%
Tyreke Wilson17%
Trevor Clarke17%
Eoin Kenny14%
Ronan Teahan14%
D. McDaid7%
Bobby Burns7%
Shane Tracey6%
Robert Cornwall6%
Aodh Dervin4%
H. Groome4%
Conor O'Keeffe0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Keith Buckley0%
Conor Kearns0%
T. Wilson0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Egor Vassenin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinnie Leonard33%
Bobby Burns32%
Keith Buckley30%
Aodh Dervin28%
Robert Cornwall28%
Mayowa Animasahun28%
Tom Grivosti25%
Egor Vassenin25%
Harvey Warren21%
Cian Dillon20%
Conor O'Keeffe17%
Trevor Clarke17%
T. Wilson16%
Shane Tracey12%
D. Horgan11%
Ronan Teahan10%
Danny Mullen9%
Gbemi Arubi9%
Tyreke Wilson9%
H. Groome8%
D. McDaid7%
Eoin Kenny5%
Conor Kearns0%
Enda Minogue0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Grivosti50%
D. Horgan30%
Conor O'Keeffe17%
Gbemi Arubi14%
Eoin Kenny10%
Tyreke Wilson9%
Aodh Dervin8%
T. Wilson5%
H. Groome4%
D. McDaid4%
Keith Buckley4%
Bobby Burns0%
Danny Mullen0%
Trevor Clarke0%
Robert Cornwall0%
Conor Kearns0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Cian Dillon0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Shane Tracey0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Ronan Teahan0%
Egor Vassenin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Horgan41%
Cian Dillon40%
Gbemi Arubi32%
Danny Mullen18%
Trevor Clarke17%
Bobby Burns7%
Eoin Kenny5%
Ronan Teahan5%
H. Groome4%
D. McDaid4%
Conor O'Keeffe0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Robert Cornwall0%
Keith Buckley0%
Conor Kearns0%
Aodh Dervin0%
T. Wilson0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Tyreke Wilson0%
Shane Tracey0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Egor Vassenin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Drogheda United and Dundalk have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Drogheda United and Dundalk have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Drogheda United and Dundalk have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Drogheda United and Dundalk have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
Shelbourne
Derry City
Galway United
Waterford
Sligo Rovers