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Dumbarton vs Dunfermline Result & Analysis

Date: 19/07/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 0-4
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Vs
9%
15%
76%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: League Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dumbarton win✗ Miss
9.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
15.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline win✓ Hit
75.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L11D00D32W60W13L22D31W12L10WH·INV08/03A·ARB15/03H·QUE22/03A·ALL29/03A·KEL05/04H·COV12/04A·MON19/04H·ANN26/04A·STE03/05H·STI15/07
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.901.381.941.641.86
vs Stronger (23)1.611.741.331.831.911.64
vs Similar (7)1.142.431.502.250.672.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L10W01L01L10W10W00D00D02L14LA·AYR29/03H·LIV02/04H·HAM05/04H·HAM05/04A·QUE12/04A·QUE12/04H·PAR19/04H·AIR26/04A·MOR02/05A·HEA12/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.331.070.860.441.75
vs Stronger (2)0.503.50--0.503.50
vs Similar (27)0.671.220.920.920.431.50
vs Weaker (1)3.000.003.000.00--
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%116%220%320%415%519%6+
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.5%
Under 1.5
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
74.3%
Under 2.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.2%
Under 3.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
8.7%
1-2
8.6%
0-3
8.3%
1-3
8.2%
1-1
6.5%
0-4 ✓
6.0%
1-4
5.9%
0-1
5.4%
Dumbarton goals ↓
Dunfermline goals →
01234
02.7%5.4%8.7%8.3%6.0%
11.5%6.5%8.6%8.2%5.9%
21.0%2.9%4.2%4.1%2.9%
30.3%1.0%1.4%1.3%1.0%
40.1%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dumbarton goals (down), columns = Dunfermline goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Aberdeen
2.57
Celtic
2.50
Dundee
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ross County
2.40
Livingston
2.25
Ayr Utd
2.25
Dundee Utd
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Airdrie United
1.80
Hibernian
1.80
ST Johnstone
1.80
Queen's Park
1.80
Partick
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Montrose
1.75
East Fife
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.75
Motherwell
1.71
Morton
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Kilmarnock
1.00
Inverness CT
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Kelty Hearts
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Dunfermline
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Stirling
0.50
Dumbarton
0.25
East Kilbride
0.25
Stranraer
0.25
Elgin
0.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Edinburgh City
0.00
Dumbarton is 0.50 points worse than Dunfermline in terms of average points per game (0.25 vs 0.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celtic
4.25
Dundee
4.00
Airdrie United
3.20
Queen's Park
3.20
Hibernian
3.00
Aberdeen
2.86
Partick
2.75
Falkirk
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ayr Utd
2.25
Clyde
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.20
Dundee Utd
2.00
Ross County
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Raith Rovers
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.75
Montrose
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Spartans
1.33
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Livingston
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Peterhead
1.25
Queen of the South
1.25
Dumbarton
1.00
Dunfermline
1.00
Stranraer
1.00
Inverness CT
0.75
Morton
0.75
Cove Rangers
0.75
Elgin
0.75
Forfar
0.75
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.75
Brechin
0.50
East Kilbride
0.50
Kelty Hearts
0.50
Stirling
0.50
Arbroath
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Dumbarton and Dunfermline are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.00
Livingston
0.25
Motherwell
0.71
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Ross County
0.80
ST Mirren
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee
1.00
Aberdeen
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Raith Rovers
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.17
Spartans
1.17
Falkirk
1.17
Queen's Park
1.20
Ayr Utd
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Partick
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Montrose
1.25
East Fife
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.25
Annan Athletic
1.25
ST Johnstone
1.40
Celtic
1.50
Morton
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Inverness CT
1.75
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Airdrie United
2.20
Cove Rangers
2.25
Brechin
2.50
Stranraer
2.50
Stenhousemuir
2.75
Peterhead
2.75
Dumbarton
3.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.25
Elgin
3.50
East Kilbride
4.00
Edinburgh City
4.00
Dumbarton is 2.00 goals worse than Dunfermline in terms of goals conceded per game (3.25 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

DumbartonDumbarton

For 3.2 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.3

🚩 Corners

1405546185427624543821210109998941114A·STEH·ANNA·MONH·COVA·KELA·ALLH·QUEA·ARBH·INVH·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9

🟨 Cards

80352324112311123328562523350A·STEH·ANNA·MONH·COVA·KELA·ALLH·QUEA·ARBH·INVH·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 9.4 · Total 20.6

⚠️ Fouls

270119109111547101010111710161110713520192611202127271718A·STEH·ANNA·MONH·COVA·KELA·ALLH·QUEA·ARBH·INVH·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunfermlineDunfermline

For 5.4 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.6

🚩 Corners

13054814344674241849978136512A·QUEH·HAMA·AYRA·RAIA·HAMH·QUEH·RAIH·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.9

🟨 Cards

704234213231121267335133A·QUEH·HAMA·AYRA·RAIA·HAMH·QUEH·RAIH·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 13.4 · Total 23.4

⚠️ Fouls

29011151215131314159127127147112627262921192118A·QUEH·HAMA·AYRA·RAIA·HAMH·QUEH·RAIH·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DumbartonDumbarton

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.711.310.13.12.93.418.918.319.5
vs Stronger (37)10.311.49.12.92.63.319.117.520.7
vs Similar (13)11.811.212.53.63.43.818.520.516.5
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line49%59%38%40%33%48%23%23%24%
% under line51%41%62%60%67%52%77%77%76%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.49.49.41.11.21.022.521.623.4
vs Stronger (2)---0.0-0.0---
vs Similar (46)9.49.49.41.21.21.122.521.623.4
vs Weaker (2)---0.00.00.0---
% over line43%43%43%12%12%12%57%43%71%
% under line57%57%57%88%88%88%43%57%29%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.8
Aberdeen
11.6
Ross County
11.5
Falkirk
11.4
Hibernian
11.3
Morton
11.2
Motherwell
11.2
Dundee Utd
11.1
Kilmarnock
10.7
Dumbarton
10.7
ST Johnstone
10.7
Dunfermline
10.6
Rangers
10.6
Airdrie United
10.6
Dundee
10.5
Heart Of Midlothian
10.5
Stirling
10.4
Arbroath
10.3
Kelty Hearts
10.1
ST Mirren
10.1
Partick
10.1
Annan Athletic
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Cove Rangers
10.0
Clyde
9.8
Forfar
9.6
East Fife
9.6
Stenhousemuir
9.5
Montrose
9.4
Stranraer
9.2
Edinburgh City
9.2
Elgin
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Livingston
9.0
Inverness CT
8.9
Peterhead
8.7

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Ayr Utd
9.0
Peterhead
5.1
Morton
4.7
Aberdeen
4.6
Elgin
4.6
Forfar
4.6
Edinburgh City
4.5
Dundee Utd
4.4
Clyde
4.3
ST Mirren
4.3
Stirling
4.2
Rangers
4.2
Falkirk
4.1
Motherwell
4.1
Hibernian
4.1
Partick
4.0
Stranraer
4.0
ST Johnstone
4.0
Spartans
4.0
Heart Of Midlothian
3.9
East Fife
3.9
Kilmarnock
3.9
Dundee
3.8
Livingston
3.7
Annan Athletic
3.7
Stenhousemuir
3.7
Dumbarton
3.7
Dunfermline
3.6
Montrose
3.6
Brechin
3.5
Celtic
3.5
Airdrie United
3.5
Inverness CT
3.4
Ross County
3.3
Kelty Hearts
3.3
Arbroath
3.2
Cove Rangers
2.7

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.8
Peterhead
24.6
Elgin
23.8
Edinburgh City
23.8
Livingston
23.5
Aberdeen
23.3
East Fife
23.1
Clyde
22.6
Morton
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.1
Motherwell
22.0
Spartans
22.0
Falkirk
21.9
Stenhousemuir
21.8
Kilmarnock
21.7
ST Mirren
21.7
Stirling
21.5
Rangers
21.4
Heart Of Midlothian
21.4
Dundee Utd
21.0
Inverness CT
20.8
Ross County
20.7
Airdrie United
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Montrose
20.1
Partick
20.0
Dunfermline
20.0
Hibernian
19.9
Annan Athletic
19.8
Dundee
19.7
Arbroath
19.7
Kelty Hearts
19.7
Stranraer
19.6
Dumbarton
18.9
Celtic
18.4
Cove Rangers
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.9%
Under 9.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.2%
Under 3.5
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
68.0%
Under 21.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dumbarton or Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
9%
15%
76%
covers Dumbarton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton or Dunfermline✓ Hit
85.0%
Avg Implied -
9%
15%
76%
covers Dumbarton + Dunfermline
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dunfermline✓ Hit
90.6%
Avg Implied -
9%
15%
76%
covers Draw + Dunfermline
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
62.9%
Under
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.1%
Under
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
94.4%
Under
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
78.3%
Under
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
55.1%
Under
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Dumbarton, so a minus line means Dumbarton give that many goals of a start and Dunfermline receive them. At -1, Dumbarton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dumbarton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dumbarton)Actual: Dunfermline
Dumbarton -2
0.8%
Draw -2
2.4%
Dunfermline +2
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dumbarton)Actual: Dunfermline
Dumbarton -1
3.2%
Draw -1
6.2%
Dunfermline +1
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dumbarton)Actual: Dunfermline
Dumbarton +1
24.5%
Draw +1
19.1%
Dunfermline -1
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dumbarton)Actual: Dunfermline
Dumbarton +2
43.6%
Draw +2
20.4%
Dunfermline -2
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DumbartonDumbarton

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L00D01L30W02L11D10W01L00DH·INV08/03A·ARB15/03H·QUE22/03A·ALL29/03A·KEL05/04H·COV12/04A·MON19/04H·ANN26/04A·STE03/05H·STI15/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.830.620.880.640.79
vs Stronger (23)0.740.740.670.750.820.73
vs Similar (7)0.291.140.501.250.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W01L01L00D00D00D00D02L11DA·AYR29/03H·LIV02/04H·HAM05/04H·HAM05/04A·QUE12/04A·QUE12/04H·PAR19/04H·AIR26/04A·MOR02/05A·HEA12/07
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.630.290.430.250.81
vs Stronger (2)0.501.00--0.501.00
vs Similar (27)0.190.630.150.460.210.79
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DumbartonDumbarton

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W00D31W30W11D11D21W11D10WH·INV08/03A·ARB15/03H·QUE22/03A·ALL29/03A·KEL05/04H·COV12/04A·MON19/04H·ANN26/04A·STE03/05H·STI15/07
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.070.751.061.001.07
vs Stronger (23)0.871.000.671.081.090.91
vs Similar (7)0.861.291.001.000.671.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D00D00D10W10W00D00D00D03LA·AYR29/03H·LIV02/04H·HAM05/04H·HAM05/04A·QUE12/04A·QUE12/04H·PAR19/04H·AIR26/04A·MOR02/05A·HEA12/07
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.700.790.430.190.94
vs Stronger (2)0.002.50--0.002.50
vs Similar (27)0.480.590.770.460.210.71
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards100.0%--------
Under 4.5 cards100.0%--------
Under 3.5 cards99.8%--------
Under 2.5 cards98.5%--------
Home under 3.5 goals98.2%-------✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap96.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 7.595.6%-------✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals94.4%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals92.1%-------✓ Hit
Draw or Away90.6%-------✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap90.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.590.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.590.2%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away85.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls81.5%--------
Under 5.580.4%-------✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals78.3%-------✓ Hit
Away win75.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.574.3%-------✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals73.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners71.8%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Dumbarton's squad is €4m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Dumbarton's attack is €2m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Dumbarton and Dunfermline have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Dumbarton's defence is €2m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
DUM wins
2
Draws
6
DUN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dumbarton vs Dunfermline · H/A from DUM
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/18ADunfermline Vs DUM4-0
06/01/18HDUM Vs Dunfermline0-1
25/11/17ADunfermline Vs DUM2-2
26/08/17HDUM Vs Dunfermline0-4
15/04/17HDUM Vs Dunfermline0-2
04/03/17ADunfermline Vs DUM5-1
29/10/16HDUM Vs Dunfermline2-2
06/08/16ADunfermline Vs DUM4-3

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/07/25HDUM Vs Stirling1-0
03/05/25AStenhousemuir Vs DUM2-1
26/04/25HDUM Vs Annan Athletic3-1
19/04/25AMontrose Vs DUM2-2
12/04/25HDUM Vs Cove Rangers1-3
05/04/25AKelty Hearts Vs DUM0-6
29/03/25AAlloa Vs DUM2-3
22/03/25HDUM Vs Queen of Sth0-0
15/03/25AArbroath Vs DUM1-1
08/03/25HDUM Vs Inverness CT0-1

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/07/25AHeart Of Midlothian Vs DUN4-1
02/05/25AMorton Vs DUN2-0
26/04/25HDUN Vs Airdrie United0-0
19/04/25HDUN Vs Partick0-0
12/04/25AQueens Park Vs DUN0-1
12/04/25AQueen's Park Vs DUN0-1
05/04/25HDUN Vs Hamilton Academical0-1
05/04/25HDUN Vs Hamilton0-1
02/04/25HDUN Vs Livingston1-0
29/03/25AAyr Vs DUN3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLW1.08
HomeLDLWW1.19
AwayDWWDL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%30%22%
AVG goals3.163.263.04
Over 1.5 %86%78%96%
Over 2.5 %60%63%57%
Over 3.5 %44%52%35%
Scored1.361.441.26
Conceded1.801.811.78
BTTS64%67%61%
Clean Sheet18%22%13%
Corners10.7211.3210.10
Cards3.633.503.76
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLL1.06
HomeWLLDD1.62
AwayLWWLL0.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%46%15%
AVG goals2.162.172.15
Over 1.5 %62%58%65%
Over 2.5 %40%42%38%
Over 3.5 %14%21%8%
Scored0.881.290.50
Conceded1.280.881.65
BTTS30%33%27%
Clean Sheet28%46%12%
Corners9.439.439.43
Cards3.864.003.71

🏆 17. League Table

Dumbarton plays in Scotland - League Two
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1East KilbrideEast Kilbride3669
58%
1.9
7746+31
3.4
92%
69%
50%
10.4
58%
5.6
83%
26.4
81%
0
0002.11.3
-
2SpartansSpartans3664
50%
1.8
6039+21
2.8
83%
53%
28%
9.4
47%
4.0
58%
19.9
33%
0
0001.71.1
-
3ClydeClyde3656
39%
1.6
5841+17
2.8
83%
53%
33%
9.8
42%
4.1
61%
21.4
44%
0
0001.61.1
-
4ForfarForfar3650
36%
1.4
5147+4
2.7
72%
50%
36%
9.2
50%
4.1
58%
23.8
67%
0
0001.41.3
-
5StranraerStranraer3647
33%
1.3
4646+0
2.6
78%
50%
28%
11.0
63%
4.3
66%
22.5
57%
0
0001.31.3
-
6ElginElgin3644
31%
1.2
5155-4
2.9
86%
56%
25%
10.5
60%
4.2
60%
22.8
60%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3641
28%
1.1
4758-11
2.9
78%
56%
36%
9.9
50%
4.4
64%
23.8
72%
0
0001.31.6
-
8DumbartonDumbarton3640
28%
1.1
4761-14
3.0
92%
58%
28%
10.6
54%
3.5
46%
20.8
46%
0
0001.31.7
-
9Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3639
28%
1.1
4572-27
3.2
86%
69%
44%
9.5
51%
5.2
80%
23.8
66%
0
0001.22.0
-
10StirlingStirling3638
25%
1.1
4663-17
3.0
83%
58%
36%
11.4
58%
4.1
58%
20.7
36%
0
0001.31.8
-
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
Dunfermline plays in Scotland - Championship
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ST JohnstoneST Johnstone48103
60%
2.1
8734+53
2.5
67%
44%
29%
10.0
50%
4.8
83%
22.5
67%
5
2121.80.7
-
2PartickPartick4889
48%
1.9
7246+26
2.5
75%
44%
27%
10.7
67%
4.6
58%
20.2
33%
3
1111.51.0
-
3DunfermlineDunfermline4874
44%
1.5
6949+20
2.5
73%
44%
25%
7.0
8%
4.8
83%
23.9
67%
4
2021.41.0
-
4ArbroathArbroath4871
38%
1.5
6055+5
2.4
69%
46%
21%
8.2
33%
4.2
67%
23.8
67%
1
0001.21.1
-
5MortonMorton4850
21%
1.0
4866-18
2.4
71%
44%
25%
10.2
58%
4.5
50%
23.4
58%
1
0001.01.4
-
6Ross CountyRoss County4849
25%
1.0
5075-25
2.6
69%
50%
29%
8.0
25%
3.9
58%
22.8
67%
1
0011.01.6
-
7Airdrie UnitedAirdrie United5047
20%
0.9
4667-21
2.3
64%
46%
22%
10.6
67%
3.3
50%
18.3
25%
0
0000.91.3
-
8Raith RoversRaith Rovers3645
33%
1.2
4342+1
2.4
75%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.21.2
-
9
RR
Raith Rvs		3645
33%
1.2
4342+1
2.4
75%
42%
19%
9.6
47%
4.3
56%
21.0
53%
0
0001.21.2
-
10Queens ParkQueens Park3641
25%
1.1
3548-13
2.3
67%
39%
19%
8.7
39%
4.1
69%
21.8
56%
0
0001.01.3
-
11QueenQueen's Park3641
25%
1.1
3548-13
2.3
67%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.3
-
12
A
Ayr		3639
22%
1.1
3847-9
2.4
69%
42%
17%
10.0
50%
4.5
69%
22.4
58%
0
0001.11.3
-
13Ayr UtdAyr Utd3639
22%
1.1
3847-9
2.4
69%
42%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
14Alloa AthleticAlloa Athletic49
75%
2.2
54+1
2.2
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
15StenhousemuirStenhousemuir45
25%
1.2
54+1
2.2
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
16Queen of the SouthQueen of the South22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Scotland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches