This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.87
1.33
0.73
1.20
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.27
0.87
1.33
0.73
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.5%
Under 2.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 â
14.0%
0-0
9.2%
1-0
8.8%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
8.0%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
6.3%
Dundalk goals ↓
Shelbourne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
8.7%
6.3%
2.6%
0.8%
1
8.8%
14%
8.0%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.4%
8.1%
5.1%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.7%
3.4%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundalk goals (down), columns = Shelbourne goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.00
Derry City
1.81
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Shelbourne
1.67
Dundalk
1.61
Bohemians
1.61
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
1.03
Waterford
1.00
Cork City
0.86
UCD
0.31
Dundalk is 0.06 points worse than Shelbourne in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.67).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.86
Dundalk
1.64
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.58
Bohemians
1.47
Shelbourne
1.22
Drogheda United
1.11
Waterford
1.00
Sligo Rovers
1.00
Cork City
0.97
UCD
0.53
Dundalk is 0.42 goals better than Shelbourne in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.22).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derry City
0.67
Shelbourne
0.75
Shamrock Rovers
0.75
Waterford
1.00
Bohemians
1.11
St Patrick's Athl.
1.17
Dundalk
1.22
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.50
Cork City
1.76
UCD
2.67
Dundalk is 0.47 goals worse than Shelbourne in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 0.75).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
60%
Bohemians
57%
Dundalk
56%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
Sligo Rovers
49%
St Patrick's Athl.
46%
Cork City
45%
Drogheda United
40%
UCD
38%
Dundalk is 2.8 percentage points better than Shelbourne in terms of average possession (56% vs 53%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Dundalk
For 3.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.2
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shelbourne
For 3.6 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 14.2 · Total 25.2
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundalk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
9.2
6.8
0.9
0.9
0.8
25.2
24.5
26.5
vs Stronger (5)
11.0
11.0
-
0.8
1.3
0.0
21.0
21.0
-
vs Similar (42)
7.6
8.7
6.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
26.0
25.7
26.5
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
38%
50%
25%
16%
17%
15%
83%
75%
100%
% under line
62%
50%
75%
84%
83%
85%
17%
25%
0%
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
12.0
6.0
0.5
0.4
0.6
25.2
26.5
24.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
8.4
12.0
6.0
0.5
0.5
0.6
25.2
26.5
24.3
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
20%
50%
0%
6%
4%
8%
60%
50%
67%
% under line
80%
50%
100%
94%
96%
92%
40%
50%
33%
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
11.2
Shamrock Rovers
10.0
Sligo Rovers
10.0
Cork City
9.6
Derry City
9.6
St Patrick's Athl.
9.3
Drogheda United
9.0
UCD
8.8
Shelbourne
8.4
Dundalk
8.0
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
St Patrick's Athl.
7.3
Derry City
5.8
Dundalk
5.4
Shelbourne
5.0
UCD
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
5.0
Sligo Rovers
4.6
Bohemians
4.4
Drogheda United
3.5
Cork City
3.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sligo Rovers
25.6
Derry City
25.3
Shelbourne
25.2
Dundalk
25.2
Cork City
24.4
Drogheda United
24.3
St Patrick's Athl.
24.2
Shamrock Rovers
22.7
UCD
21.2
Bohemians
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
37.1%
Under 9.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.7%
Under 3.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
69.4%
Under 21.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundalk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.71
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.40
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.27
0.47
0.27
0.60
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.27
0.47
0.27
0.60
0.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundalk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
1.29
0.71
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.56
1.33
0.67
0.60
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.87
0.47
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.60
0.87
0.47
0.60
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 10.5 corners
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Dundalk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniel Kelly43%
Pat Hoban33%
Daryl Horgan27%
Paul Doyle25%
Sam Durrant20%
John Martin17%
Louie Annesley11%
Johannes Yli-Kokko10%
Connor Malley8%
Hayden Muller7%
Andy Boyle0%
Darren Brownlie0%
Robbie Benson0%
Darragh Leahy0%
Robert McCourt0%
Keith Ward0%
Gregory Sloggett0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Archie Davies0%
Cameron Elliott0%
Alfie Lewis0%
Nathan Shepperd0%
Senan Mullen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Louie Annesley56%
Robbie Benson43%
Daniel Kelly36%
Archie Davies33%
Darren Brownlie29%
Hayden Muller29%
Senan Mullen25%
Gregory Sloggett21%
Pat Hoban20%
Johannes Yli-Kokko20%
Daryl Horgan18%
Connor Malley17%
Andy Boyle17%
Robert McCourt17%
Darragh Leahy14%
Cameron Elliott10%
Sam Durrant10%
John Martin8%
Paul Doyle8%
Keith Ward0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Alfie Lewis0%
Nathan Shepperd0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Archie Davies40%
Keith Ward33%
Cameron Elliott20%
Daryl Horgan18%
Robert McCourt17%
Paul Doyle17%
Pat Hoban13%
Connor Malley8%
Daniel Kelly7%
Andy Boyle0%
Darren Brownlie0%
Louie Annesley0%
Robbie Benson0%
Darragh Leahy0%
Gregory Sloggett0%
John Martin0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Alfie Lewis0%
Johannes Yli-Kokko0%
Hayden Muller0%
Nathan Shepperd0%
Sam Durrant0%
Senan Mullen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pat Hoban20%
Daryl Horgan18%
John Martin17%
Cameron Elliott10%
Johannes Yli-Kokko10%
Ryan O'Kane8%
Daniel Kelly7%
Connor Malley0%
Andy Boyle0%
Darren Brownlie0%
Louie Annesley0%
Robbie Benson0%
Darragh Leahy0%
Robert McCourt0%
Keith Ward0%
Gregory Sloggett0%
Paul Doyle0%
Archie Davies0%
Alfie Lewis0%
Hayden Muller0%
Nathan Shepperd0%
Sam Durrant0%
Senan Mullen0%
Shelbourne
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sean Boyd60%
Jack Moylan38%
Euclides Cabral20%
Will Jarvis17%
Paddy Barrett14%
Harry Wood14%
John Ross Wilson10%
Mark Coyle7%
Jonathan Lunney6%
Gavin Molloy6%
Shane Griffin0%
Conor Kearns0%
Luke Byrne0%
Shane Farrell0%
Tyreke Wilson0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Evan Caffrey0%
Brian McManus0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Gbemi Arubi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mark Coyle47%
Sean Boyd40%
Shane Griffin38%
Andrew Quinn33%
Luke Byrne25%
Brian McManus25%
Paddy Barrett21%
Euclides Cabral20%
John Ross Wilson20%
Kameron Ledwidge14%
Gavin Molloy12%
Will Jarvis8%
Tyreke Wilson7%
Harry Wood7%
Conor Kearns7%
Shane Farrell7%
Jonathan Lunney6%
Jack Moylan6%
Evan Caffrey0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Gbemi Arubi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Harry Wood36%
Shane Farrell13%
John Ross Wilson10%
Jad Hakiki10%
Tyreke Wilson7%
Jonathan Lunney6%
Jack Moylan6%
Evan Caffrey6%
Euclides Cabral0%
Shane Griffin0%
Conor Kearns0%
Sean Boyd0%
Mark Coyle0%
Luke Byrne0%
Paddy Barrett0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Brian McManus0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Will Jarvis0%
Gbemi Arubi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harry Wood29%
Jack Moylan25%
Sean Boyd20%
Jad Hakiki10%
Paddy Barrett7%
Jonathan Lunney6%
Evan Caffrey6%
Euclides Cabral0%
Shane Griffin0%
Conor Kearns0%
Mark Coyle0%
Luke Byrne0%
John Ross Wilson0%
Shane Farrell0%
Tyreke Wilson0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Brian McManus0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Will Jarvis0%
Gbemi Arubi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
CC (2)
€0m
Dundalk's squad is €1m less valuable than Shelbourne's (€3m vs €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
Dundalk and Shelbourne have a similar attack value (both €0m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
Dundalk and Shelbourne have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CC (0)
€0m
Dundalk and Shelbourne have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
Cork City
UCD
Waterford