This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sligo Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.40
0.88
1.00
0.86
1.86
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.40
0.40
1.00
1.00
1.80
vs Similar (20)
0.95
1.40
1.09
1.00
0.78
1.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.9%
Under 2.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.2%
No
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.8%
1-0
7.9%
3-1
6.5%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.6%
2-2
5.6%
Dundalk goals ↓
Sligo Rovers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
4.1%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
1
7.9%
11%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.9%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.8%
6.5%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.9%
3.2%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundalk goals (down), columns = Sligo Rovers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shelbourne
1.75
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.53
Galway United
1.44
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Waterford
1.25
Bohemians
1.17
Drogheda United
1.00
Dundalk
0.72
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Dundalk is 0.64 points worse than Sligo Rovers in terms of average points per game (0.72 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Patrick's Athl.
1.42
Shamrock Rovers
1.39
Derry City
1.33
Waterford
1.19
Drogheda United
1.19
Shelbourne
1.11
Sligo Rovers
1.11
Bohemians
1.08
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Galway United
0.92
Dundalk
0.64
Dundalk is 0.47 goals worse than Sligo Rovers in terms of goals scored per game (0.64 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shelbourne
0.75
Galway United
0.81
Derry City
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.97
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Bohemians
1.19
Waterford
1.31
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.59
Bray Wanderers
3.00
Dundalk is 0.03 goals better than Sligo Rovers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
St Patrick's Athl.
53%
Bohemians
52%
Waterford
50%
Dundalk
48%
Sligo Rovers
48%
Drogheda United
39%
Galway United
39%
Dundalk is 0.3 percentage points better than Sligo Rovers in terms of average possession (48% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dundalk
For 5.5 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 13.1 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sligo Rovers
For 4.4 · Against 3.5 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 11.4 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundalk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.9
8.6
7.1
2.2
2.0
2.5
27.4
26.0
29.2
vs Stronger (5)
8.7
11.0
7.5
2.6
2.0
3.0
24.7
21.0
26.5
vs Similar (44)
7.8
8.4
7.0
2.2
2.0
2.5
27.9
26.5
30.2
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
33%
45%
20%
36%
31%
42%
84%
73%
100%
% under line
67%
55%
80%
64%
69%
58%
16%
27%
0%
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sligo Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
8.9
6.6
1.9
2.2
1.6
27.9
27.9
27.9
vs Stronger (17)
7.8
7.7
8.0
2.2
2.4
1.9
27.2
29.7
24.7
vs Similar (32)
7.8
9.5
5.8
1.9
2.1
1.6
28.3
27.0
29.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
24%
33%
12%
30%
32%
28%
94%
100%
88%
% under line
76%
67%
88%
70%
68%
72%
6%
0%
12%
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
11.2
Shamrock Rovers
10.3
Derry City
10.1
Waterford
9.8
St Patrick's Athl.
9.4
Drogheda United
9.4
Shelbourne
8.7
Sligo Rovers
8.4
Dundalk
7.9
Galway United
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Waterford
6.5
St Patrick's Athl.
6.4
Shelbourne
5.6
Sligo Rovers
5.5
Derry City
5.4
Dundalk
5.3
Bohemians
5.1
Shamrock Rovers
4.8
Galway United
4.3
Drogheda United
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sligo Rovers
27.4
Dundalk
27.4
Waterford
26.3
Shelbourne
25.7
St Patrick's Athl.
24.9
Derry City
24.4
Bohemians
24.2
Galway United
24.0
Shamrock Rovers
23.2
Drogheda United
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
35.8%
Under 9.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.5%
Under 3.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
79.4%
Under 21.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundalk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.86
0.64
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.73
0.92
0.69
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sligo Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.44
0.50
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.60
0.20
0.40
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.60
0.55
0.55
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundalk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.21
0.43
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.04
0.54
1.15
0.46
0.92
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sligo Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.44
0.50
0.36
1.14
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.80
0.20
0.60
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.80
0.55
0.45
0.22
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dundalk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jamie Gullan16%
Robbie Benson13%
Ryan O'Kane9%
Daryl Horgan8%
Jad Hakiki8%
Eoin Kenny8%
John Mountney7%
Scott High7%
Ross Munro0%
Andy Boyle0%
Louie Annesley0%
Paul Doyle0%
Dara Keane0%
Aodh Dervin0%
Jamie Walker0%
Scott McGill0%
Archie Davies0%
Cameron Elliott0%
Koen Oostenbrink0%
Robert Mahon0%
George Shelvey0%
Hayden Muller0%
Hayden Cann0%
Zac Johnson0%
Felix Goddard0%
Dan Pike0%
Sam Durrant0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Ciaran McGuckin0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Zak Bradshaw0%
Norman Garbett0%
Sean Keogh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Keogh45%
Aodh Dervin42%
Paul Doyle32%
Hayden Muller31%
Cameron Elliott29%
Koen Oostenbrink29%
Zak Bradshaw28%
Robbie Benson27%
Mayowa Animasahun26%
Bobby Faulkner25%
Sam Durrant22%
Louie Annesley20%
Eoin Kenny20%
Archie Davies18%
Zac Johnson17%
Jamie Gullan16%
John Mountney14%
Norman Garbett14%
Andy Boyle12%
Scott McGill11%
Hayden Cann11%
Dan Pike11%
Jad Hakiki8%
Scott High7%
Daryl Horgan6%
Robert Mahon5%
Ross Munro5%
Ryan O'Kane3%
Dara Keane0%
Jamie Walker0%
George Shelvey0%
Felix Goddard0%
Ciaran McGuckin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dan Pike11%
Daryl Horgan8%
Jad Hakiki8%
Ryan O'Kane6%
Sam Durrant6%
Paul Doyle5%
Robert Mahon5%
Archie Davies5%
Eoin Kenny4%
John Mountney4%
Robbie Benson3%
Jamie Gullan3%
Ross Munro0%
Andy Boyle0%
Louie Annesley0%
Dara Keane0%
Aodh Dervin0%
Jamie Walker0%
Scott McGill0%
Cameron Elliott0%
Koen Oostenbrink0%
Scott High0%
George Shelvey0%
Hayden Muller0%
Hayden Cann0%
Zac Johnson0%
Felix Goddard0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Ciaran McGuckin0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Zak Bradshaw0%
Norman Garbett0%
Sean Keogh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Gullan13%
Cameron Elliott12%
Sean Keogh9%
Daryl Horgan8%
Eoin Kenny8%
John Mountney7%
Sam Durrant6%
Robbie Benson3%
Ryan O'Kane3%
Ross Munro0%
Andy Boyle0%
Louie Annesley0%
Paul Doyle0%
Dara Keane0%
Aodh Dervin0%
Jamie Walker0%
Scott McGill0%
Archie Davies0%
Koen Oostenbrink0%
Robert Mahon0%
Scott High0%
George Shelvey0%
Hayden Muller0%
Hayden Cann0%
Zac Johnson0%
Felix Goddard0%
Dan Pike0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Ciaran McGuckin0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Zak Bradshaw0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Norman Garbett0%
Sligo Rovers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Wilson Waweru25%
Ellis Chapman21%
Fabrice Hartmann19%
Max Mata14%
Simon Power11%
Luke Pearce10%
Connor Malley9%
William Fitzgerald7%
Reece Hutchinson6%
Kailin Barlow4%
Niall Morahan3%
Stephen Mallon0%
Edward McGinty0%
John Ross Wilson0%
Stefan Radosavljević0%
Nando Pijnaker0%
Oliver Denham0%
Rein Smit0%
Charlie Wiggett0%
Jack Henry-Francis0%
Owen Elding0%
Gareth McElroy0%
Conor Reynolds0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Daire Patton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Conor Reynolds75%
Nando Pijnaker50%
Niall Morahan38%
Gareth McElroy33%
Charlie Wiggett29%
John Ross Wilson28%
Oliver Denham24%
Reece Hutchinson23%
Connor Malley21%
Luke Pearce20%
Kyle McDonagh20%
Ellis Chapman18%
Rein Smit18%
Stephen Mallon17%
Fabrice Hartmann14%
Kailin Barlow12%
Simon Power11%
Jack Henry-Francis10%
Owen Elding10%
William Fitzgerald7%
Stefan Radosavljević7%
Edward McGinty6%
Wilson Waweru4%
Max Mata0%
Daire Patton0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fabrice Hartmann19%
Nando Pijnaker14%
Max Mata14%
Simon Power11%
William Fitzgerald10%
Jack Henry-Francis10%
Ellis Chapman9%
John Ross Wilson7%
Stefan Radosavljević7%
Oliver Denham6%
Charlie Wiggett5%
Wilson Waweru4%
Niall Morahan3%
Stephen Mallon0%
Connor Malley0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Edward McGinty0%
Luke Pearce0%
Rein Smit0%
Kailin Barlow0%
Owen Elding0%
Gareth McElroy0%
Conor Reynolds0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Daire Patton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Simon Power22%
Ellis Chapman12%
Luke Pearce10%
Fabrice Hartmann10%
Nando Pijnaker7%
Max Mata7%
William Fitzgerald7%
Stefan Radosavljević7%
Connor Malley6%
Stephen Mallon0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Edward McGinty0%
Niall Morahan0%
John Ross Wilson0%
Wilson Waweru0%
Oliver Denham0%
Rein Smit0%
Charlie Wiggett0%
Jack Henry-Francis0%
Kailin Barlow0%
Owen Elding0%
Gareth McElroy0%
Conor Reynolds0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Daire Patton0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
BW (1)
€0m
Dundalk and Sligo Rovers have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Dundalk and Sligo Rovers have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Dundalk and Sligo Rovers have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
BW (0)
€0m
Dundalk and Sligo Rovers have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →