Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. Result & Analysis

Dundalk’s home form shows a potent attack, averaging 2.14 goals per game while conceding 1.29, and the model favours a home win with a 45% probability. The match is expected to be high-scoring, with an average of 3.9 goals and a most likely total of three, a 20% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 8.5% probability. St Patrick’s Athl. on the road have scored 1.8 goals and conceded 2.4 against similar opposition, suggesting a more defensive outing. The draw probability sits at 22% and the away win at 32%. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 97.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 94.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 93.5%, Over 1.5 goals at 90.7%, Over 23.5 fouls at 86.7%, Over 3.5 cards at 85.8%, Over 25.5 fouls at 76.5%, and Under 11.5 corners at 74.7%. Each selection carries its own probability.

The draw stunned the pundits, as the pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise. Dundalk, fresh from a win, and St Patrick’s Athl., coming off a defeat, finished 1-1, a result that matched the model’s prediction of a draw. The model had called a home win with a 45% probability, but that call was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 97.3%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 94.3%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 93.5%, Over 1.5 hit at 90.7%, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 86.7%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 85.8%, Over 25.5 fouls hit at 76.5%, and Under 11.5 corners hit at 74.7%. The match delivered a surprising stalemate despite the odds.