The model favours an away win, with a 57% chance for Hearts and 20% for Dundee, 24% for a draw. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a lively match, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.1% chance. Dundee, playing at home against a stronger side, averages one goal scored and two conceded, while Hearts on the road against a weaker opponent boast 2.5 goals scored and only 0.62 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 82%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 78.5% and Over 2.5 cards at 75.1%. The recent form shows Dundee struggling after a loss to Hibernian, whereas Hearts remain unbeaten in their last five, winning against St Johnstone. The predicted outcome remains an away victory for Hearts.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction was spot on, with the away side securing a 0-1 victory to extend their unbeaten run. The pre-match favourite was the away win, assigned a 57% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The final score of 0-1 matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome. The model’s selections delivered mixed results: Over 1.5 goals missed, while Under 5.5 cards, Over 19.5 fouls and Over 2.5 cards all hit. The probability figures were 82%, 79.7%, 78.5% and 75.1% respectively. Overall, the model captured the match’s key dynamics and delivered a largely accurate set of predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dundee winâś— Miss
19.6%
Avg Implied 13.3% · @ 7.05
Edge
+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.19
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian winâś“ Hit
56.8%
Avg Implied 64.4% · @ 1.45
Edge
-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.40
1.50
1.36
0.81
1.44
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.32
1.11
1.70
1.10
0.89
1.11
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
0.73
2.27
0.67
2.07
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
2.25
0.75
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.50
vs Similar (11)
1.82
0.91
2.17
0.67
1.40
1.20
vs Weaker (15)
2.40
0.60
2.29
0.57
2.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.0%
Under 1.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.0%
@ 1.92+10.5%
Under 2.5
41.0%
@ 1.81-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.6%
Under 3.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.1%
0-1 âś“
8.2%
1-3
6.5%
0-3
6.0%
0-0
5.7%
2-1
5.5%
Dundee goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
8.2%
9.1%
6.0%
2.9%
1
4.1%
11%
9.9%
6.5%
3.2%
2
2.8%
5.5%
5.4%
3.6%
1.7%
3
1.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundee goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Partick
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Livingston
0.55
Arbroath
0.50
Dundee is 1.00 points worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 2.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Livingston
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
Partick
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Dunfermline
0.75
Arbroath
0.00
Dundee is 0.66 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arbroath
0.50
Dunfermline
0.75
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Partick
1.00
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Livingston
1.97
Dundee is 0.71 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Arbroath
50%
Dunfermline
50%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Livingston
45%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Dundee is 9.7 percentage points worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average possession (44% vs 53%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.64
0.79
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.30
0.75
1.50
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.37
0.60
0.50
0.56
0.22
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.47
1.07
0.33
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.25
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
0.83
0.33
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.40
1.14
0.29
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.57
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.70
0.25
0.50
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.74
1.10
0.60
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.27
1.20
0.33
1.27
0.20
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (11)
1.18
0.27
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (15)
1.33
0.20
1.14
0.29
1.50
0.12
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 5.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
ARB (15)
€1m
Dundee's squad is €17m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€5m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
ARB (3)
€0m
Dundee's attack is €11m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€1m vs €12m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
Dundee's midfield is €2m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€2m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
ARB (7)
€0m
Dundee's defence is €3m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€2m vs €6m).
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
Rangers
Motherwell
Hibernian
Falkirk
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
Livingston
Partick
Dunfermline
Arbroath