This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.40
1.77
1.31
0.82
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
1.75
1.33
2.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.09
1.43
1.78
1.22
0.64
1.57
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
3.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.8%
@ 1.99+18.8%
Under 2.5
34.2%
@ 1.76-18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.9%
Under 3.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.5%
No
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.6%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
7.9%
2-2
6.9%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
5.0%
0-1
5.0%
1-0
4.5%
Dundee goals ↓
Motherwell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
5.0%
5.3%
3.1%
1.4%
1
4.5%
11%
8.5%
5.0%
2.2%
2
4.5%
7.9%
6.9%
4.1%
1.8%
3
2.4%
4.2%
3.7%
2.2%
1.0%
4
1.0%
1.7%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dundee goals (down), columns = Motherwell goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Partick
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Livingston
0.55
Arbroath
0.50
Dundee is 0.50 points worse than Motherwell in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Livingston
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
Partick
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Dunfermline
0.75
Arbroath
0.00
Dundee is 0.45 goals worse than Motherwell in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arbroath
0.50
Dunfermline
0.75
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Partick
1.00
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Livingston
1.97
Dundee is 0.66 goals worse than Motherwell in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Arbroath
50%
Dunfermline
50%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Livingston
45%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Dundee is 14.2 percentage points worse than Motherwell in terms of average possession (44% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dundee
For 4.6 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 10.6 · Total 19.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
For 4.1 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 14.1 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.5
10.2
3.1
2.8
3.4
20.4
19.8
21.1
vs Stronger (20)
10.6
11.3
9.8
3.6
3.4
3.8
18.8
17.3
20.2
vs Similar (29)
10.2
9.9
10.5
2.8
2.5
3.3
21.7
21.7
21.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
63%
71%
55%
44%
35%
54%
34%
29%
40%
% under line
37%
29%
45%
56%
65%
46%
66%
71%
60%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
10.2
12.0
3.9
3.4
4.3
24.1
24.5
23.7
vs Stronger (8)
11.7
12.0
11.3
3.5
3.2
4.0
20.7
20.5
21.0
vs Similar (39)
11.0
9.7
12.1
4.3
3.7
4.8
24.8
25.6
24.1
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
61%
47%
73%
58%
50%
65%
68%
79%
59%
% under line
39%
53%
27%
42%
50%
35%
32%
21%
41%
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
12.0
Hibernian
11.6
Falkirk
11.3
Motherwell
11.3
Aberdeen
11.2
Rangers
11.1
Dundee Utd
11.0
ST Mirren
10.6
Kilmarnock
10.5
Dundee
10.4
Dunfermline
10.3
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Partick
10.2
Arbroath
10.1
Livingston
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.9
Dundee Utd
4.5
Hibernian
4.4
ST Mirren
4.4
Motherwell
4.4
Falkirk
4.3
Heart Of Midlothian
4.3
Partick
4.1
Kilmarnock
4.1
Rangers
4.0
Livingston
3.9
Dundee
3.6
Dunfermline
3.6
Celtic
3.4
Arbroath
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Livingston
23.9
Aberdeen
23.6
Motherwell
22.8
Kilmarnock
22.6
Falkirk
22.6
Heart Of Midlothian
22.4
Rangers
21.3
ST Mirren
21.2
Dundee Utd
21.0
Dunfermline
20.1
Hibernian
20.1
Partick
19.9
Dundee
19.9
Arbroath
19.9
Celtic
19.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
68.9%
Under 9.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.8%
Under 3.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
49.3%
Under 21.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.88
0.69
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.09
0.83
1.33
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (18)
0.94
0.39
0.90
0.30
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.85
0.69
0.41
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.75
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.74
0.89
0.67
0.21
0.79
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.13
0.69
1.00
0.64
1.29
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.82
0.67
1.67
0.40
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.78
0.70
0.60
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.92
0.62
0.41
0.76
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.70
0.89
0.56
0.43
0.79
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
3.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dundee
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Simon Murray19%
Joe Westley17%
Ashley Hay14%
Clark Robertson13%
Finlay Robertson12%
Scott Wright11%
Cameron Congreve9%
Ryan Astley8%
Joel Cotterill8%
Yan Dhanda7%
Drey Wright6%
Luke Graham6%
Charlie Reilly5%
Callum Jones4%
Ethan Hamilton3%
Tony Yogane3%
Paul Digby0%
Brad Halliday0%
Kieran O'Hara0%
Emile Acquah0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Imari Samuels0%
Jon McCracken0%
Ethan Ingram0%
Joe Bevan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Ingram33%
Ethan Hamilton27%
Kieran O'Hara25%
Finlay Robertson24%
Brad Halliday20%
Clark Robertson20%
Joe Bevan20%
Yan Dhanda14%
Scott Wright11%
Charlie Reilly10%
Simon Murray9%
Cameron Congreve9%
Joe Westley9%
Luke Graham8%
Emile Acquah8%
Callum Jones7%
Paul Digby7%
Drey Wright6%
Ryan Astley6%
Billy Koumetio5%
Imari Samuels3%
Jon McCracken3%
Tony Yogane3%
Joel Cotterill0%
Ashley Hay0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cameron Congreve15%
Tony Yogane14%
Charlie Reilly10%
Joe Westley9%
Finlay Robertson8%
Paul Digby7%
Clark Robertson7%
Drey Wright6%
Ashley Hay3%
Imari Samuels3%
Ryan Astley3%
Luke Graham3%
Brad Halliday0%
Kieran O'Hara0%
Yan Dhanda0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Emile Acquah0%
Scott Wright0%
Simon Murray0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Callum Jones0%
Jon McCracken0%
Ethan Ingram0%
Joel Cotterill0%
Joe Bevan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Billy Koumetio10%
Ethan Hamilton9%
Joel Cotterill8%
Simon Murray6%
Cameron Congreve6%
Charlie Reilly5%
Yan Dhanda4%
Ashley Hay3%
Paul Digby0%
Brad Halliday0%
Kieran O'Hara0%
Clark Robertson0%
Emile Acquah0%
Drey Wright0%
Scott Wright0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Ryan Astley0%
Callum Jones0%
Imari Samuels0%
Jon McCracken0%
Ethan Ingram0%
Luke Graham0%
Joe Westley0%
Tony Yogane0%
Joe Bevan0%
Motherwell
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tawanda Maswanhise40%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos26%
Elijah Just20%
Emmanuel Longelo19%
Elliot Watt18%
Eythor Bjørgolfsson11%
Callum Slattery10%
Lukas Fadinger9%
Ibrahim Said8%
Liam Gordon6%
Johnny Koutroumbis4%
Stephen Welsh4%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
Callum Hendry0%
Paul McGinn0%
Jordan McGhee0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Calum Ward0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Oscar Priestman0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Callum Slattery26%
Elliot Watt21%
Callum Hendry19%
Liam Gordon18%
Emmanuel Longelo17%
Ibrahim Said16%
Paul McGinn12%
Elijah Just11%
Eythor Bjørgolfsson11%
Tom Sparrow11%
Sam Nicholson10%
Lukas Fadinger9%
Regan Charles-Cook8%
Stephen Welsh7%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos5%
Johnny Koutroumbis4%
Oscar Priestman4%
Stephen O'Donnell3%
Tawanda Maswanhise3%
Calum Ward3%
Jordan McGhee0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Eythor Bjørgolfsson22%
Callum Slattery19%
Elijah Just17%
Emmanuel Longelo11%
Tom Sparrow11%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos11%
Elliot Watt9%
Regan Charles-Cook8%
Lukas Fadinger6%
Stephen O'Donnell6%
Tawanda Maswanhise6%
Stephen Welsh4%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Liam Gordon0%
Callum Hendry0%
Paul McGinn0%
Jordan McGhee0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Calum Ward0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Oscar Priestman0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Elijah Just26%
Tawanda Maswanhise26%
Callum Slattery23%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos16%
Callum Hendry14%
Lukas Fadinger9%
Emmanuel Longelo6%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Elliot Watt0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
Liam Gordon0%
Paul McGinn0%
Jordan McGhee0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Stephen Welsh0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Calum Ward0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Oscar Priestman0%
Eythor Bjørgolfsson0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
ARB (15)
€1m
Dundee's squad is €10m less valuable than Motherwell's (€5m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
ARB (3)
€0m
Dundee's attack is €8m less valuable than Motherwell's (€1m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
Dundee and Motherwell have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
ARB (7)
€0m
Dundee's defence is €3m less valuable than Motherwell's (€2m vs €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
Rangers
Hibernian
Falkirk
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
Livingston
Partick
Dunfermline
Arbroath