Dunfermline vs Queen's Park Result & Analysis

Queen’s Park are tipped to lift the trophy in a match that the model sees as a clear away win, with a 43% chance of victory compared with 31% for a home win and 26% for a draw. The expected total of goals sits at three, but the most likely total is two, a 24% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.2% chance, a tidy draw that matches the predicted total of two goals.

Dunfermline, playing at home, averages one goal scored and 1.58 conceded against similar opposition, while Queen’s Park, on the road, averages 1.14 scored and 2.14 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 89.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 83.0%, Over 1.5 goals at 81.2% (hit), Under 23.5 fouls at 79.6%, Over 8.5 corners at 71.5%, and Over 2.5 cards at 71.4%. The match is set to be a low-foul affair with plenty of corners, and the edge on the 1.5-goal pick is notable.

The win extends Dunfermline’s recent form, while Queen’s Park, after a draw, carried momentum into the match. The final score was 0-3, an away win that matched the model’s pick. The model had identified the away side as favourite with a 43% probability, and its call proved correct. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.2% probability, also hit, as the match produced three goals. The most likely scoreline was 1-1, but the actual result was a 0-3 rout. The model’s prediction of a 2-goal total was missed, yet the overall forecast was largely accurate.