Pythia gives Dunkerque a 52% win probability against Grenoble in the France: Ligue 2 on 2026-05-02, with 27% for the draw and 21% for Grenoble. The model estimates around 2.5 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (92%), Over 21.5 fouls (83%), Over 2.5 cards (80%), Under 11.5 corners (79%).
Results analysis
Dunkerque finished 0-1 against Grenoble (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 52% home win, 27% draw and 21% away win. Picks that landed: Over 2.5 cards (80%), Under 11.5 corners (79%), Under 3.5 (75%), Under 5.5 cards (74%). Missed: Over 19.5 fouls (92%), Over 21.5 fouls (83%), Over 1.5 (73%), Over 23.5 fouls (71%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dunkerque win✗ Miss
52.0%
Avg Implied 46.1% · @ 1.98
Edge
+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.31
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grenoble win✓ Hit
20.6%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.48
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dunkerque
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.17
1.57
0.93
1.56
1.38
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.45
1.23
1.60
1.10
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.50
3.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Grenoble) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grenoble
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.23
0.75
1.00
1.07
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
4.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.88
1.28
0.92
1.23
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunkerque) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.5%
@ 1.85-3.7%
Under 2.5
53.5%
@ 1.86+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
11.6%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.1%
0-1 ✓
6.2%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.5%
Dunkerque goals ↓
Grenoble goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
6.2%
3.4%
1.1%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.5%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.5%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.5%
5.1%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.2%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunkerque goals (down), columns = Grenoble goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Estac Troyes
2.03
Le Mans
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.75
Red Star
1.67
Rodez
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Reims
1.67
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Bastia
0.82
Amiens
0.75
Rouen
0.50
Dunkerque is 0.19 points better than Grenoble in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Estac Troyes
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
Le Mans
1.39
Red Star
1.36
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Amiens
1.14
Clermont Foot
1.11
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Bastia
0.76
Rouen
0.50
Dunkerque is 0.64 goals better than Grenoble in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Le Mans
0.86
Montpellier
0.92
Estac Troyes
0.94
Rouen
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
Red Star
1.12
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Bastia
1.26
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
PAU
1.81
Amiens
1.92
Dunkerque is 0.08 goals worse than Grenoble in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
Estac Troyes
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Bastia
50%
Le Mans
49%
Amiens
47%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Rouen
43%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Dunkerque is 13.3 percentage points better than Grenoble in terms of average possession (57% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dunkerque
For 3.5 · Against 4.1 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 13.2 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Grenoble
For 2.7 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 12.6 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunkerque
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
9.2
7.3
3.9
3.7
4.1
26.5
25.0
27.8
vs Stronger (5)
6.8
7.7
5.5
4.0
3.7
4.5
25.2
21.0
31.5
vs Similar (38)
8.9
9.6
8.2
3.7
3.6
3.9
26.3
25.1
27.5
vs Weaker (7)
5.9
8.0
5.0
4.9
5.0
4.8
28.3
30.5
27.4
% over line
31%
48%
16%
56%
62%
50%
85%
83%
88%
% under line
69%
52%
84%
44%
38%
50%
15%
17%
12%
This opponent (Grenoble) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grenoble
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.6
9.8
3.4
3.1
3.8
26.3
27.3
25.2
vs Stronger (6)
10.0
10.8
8.5
3.0
2.5
4.0
24.8
25.0
24.5
vs Similar (42)
9.6
9.4
9.8
3.4
3.2
3.6
26.5
27.9
25.2
vs Weaker (2)
10.0
8.0
12.0
5.5
3.0
8.0
26.5
26.0
27.0
% over line
52%
44%
60%
44%
44%
44%
82%
88%
76%
% under line
48%
56%
40%
56%
56%
56%
18%
12%
24%
This opponent (Dunkerque) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Amiens
10.5
Laval
10.2
Rodez
10.1
Montpellier
9.8
Grenoble
9.7
PAU
9.6
Nancy
9.5
Saint Etienne
9.5
Reims
9.3
Le Mans
9.2
Clermont Foot
9.2
Guingamp
9.1
Rouen
8.9
Bastia
8.8
Boulogne
8.6
Annecy
8.4
Dunkerque
8.4
Estac Troyes
8.4
RED Star FC 93
8.3
Red Star
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bastia
5.4
PAU
4.7
Guingamp
4.6
Boulogne
4.6
Le Mans
4.6
Annecy
4.3
Reims
4.3
Rodez
4.3
Amiens
4.2
Nancy
4.2
Laval
4.1
Montpellier
4.1
Clermont Foot
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.1
Dunkerque
4.1
Saint Etienne
4.0
RED Star FC 93
3.7
Grenoble
3.7
Red Star
3.5
Rouen
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annecy
29.1
Nancy
29.0
Bastia
28.9
Montpellier
28.6
Guingamp
28.5
Amiens
28.5
Laval
28.3
Boulogne
28.3
Le Mans
28.1
Estac Troyes
27.6
Rouen
27.2
Clermont Foot
26.8
Red Star
26.7
RED Star FC 93
26.7
Dunkerque
26.6
Grenoble
26.3
PAU
26.1
Saint Etienne
26.1
Rodez
25.9
Reims
24.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
42.8%
Under 9.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.6%
Under 3.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
83.2%
Under 21.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dunkerque
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.79
0.36
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.55
0.90
0.50
0.75
0.58
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Grenoble) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grenoble
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.33
0.44
0.25
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.36
0.54
0.31
0.33
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunkerque) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dunkerque over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunkerque over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunkerque over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grenoble over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grenoble over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grenoble over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
REI (30)
€109m
SE (29)
€82m
ET (31)
€62m
DUN (29)
€42m
BAS (31)
€37m
MON (29)
€30m
ROD (27)
€22m
AMI (33)
€21m
RS (28)
€19m
GRE (24)
€17m
LM (25)
€17m
GUI (22)
€15m
ANN (28)
€13m
NAN (30)
€13m
BOU (27)
€11m
ROU (25)
€6m
Dunkerque's squad is €26m more valuable than Grenoble's (€42m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (9)
€46m
ET (12)
€41m
REI (13)
€37m
DUN (10)
€18m
MON (12)
€10m
GRE (7)
€7m
ROD (7)
€7m
AMI (15)
€6m
RS (9)
€5m
BAS (10)
€5m
GUI (6)
€5m
ANN (10)
€4m
NAN (11)
€4m
BOU (9)
€3m
LM (6)
€2m
ROU (7)
€2m
Dunkerque's attack is €11m more valuable than Grenoble's (€18m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
REI (6)
€31m
BAS (7)
€25m
DUN (7)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
AMI (8)
€7m
ET (5)
€7m
ROD (10)
€7m
MON (4)
€5m
RS (6)
€5m
GUI (6)
€4m
LM (8)
€4m
BOU (6)
€3m
GRE (5)
€2m
NAN (7)
€2m
ANN (6)
€2m
ROU (7)
€1m
Dunkerque's midfield is €10m more valuable than Grenoble's (€13m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
REI (11)
€41m
SE (13)
€26m
MON (13)
€15m
ET (14)
€14m
DUN (12)
€11m
LM (11)
€11m
ROD (10)
€9m
RS (13)
€9m
AMI (10)
€8m
GRE (12)
€7m
ANN (12)
€6m
BAS (14)
€6m
GUI (10)
€6m
NAN (12)
€6m
BOU (12)
€5m
ROU (11)
€2m
Dunkerque's defence is €4m more valuable than Grenoble's (€11m vs €7m).
France: Ligue 2 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →