Dynamo Kyiv are the favourites to win this Premier League match against Kolos Kovalivka, with the home side coming off a win against Qarabag. The overall shape of the match is expected to be a closely contested affair, with the home team's strong recent form against weaker opponents likely to be a key factor.
The model predicts a Dynamo Kyiv win, with a 58% probability of a home win, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 17% probability of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely outcome being a match with 2 goals.
The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 12.1%. Dynamo Kyiv have been scoring an average of 2.38 goals at home against weaker opponents, while conceding just 0.69 goals. Kolos Kovalivka, on the other hand, have been scoring an average of 0.71 goals away against stronger opponents, while conceding 1.14 goals.
The model's selections are Over 1.5 goals (74.8%), Under 3.5 goals (73.1%), and the home win (58%). The home win percentage is 58%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 17%.
The win extends Dynamo Kyiv's run to 3 games, a streak that has seen them convincingly take down Kolos Kovalivka 2-1. The model's selection, Home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 58%. This result was the most likely outcome, aligning with the model's prediction. The suggested picks also largely came in, with Over 1.5 goals hitting at 74.8% probability, and Under 3.5 goals also hitting at 73.1% probability.
Dynamo Kyiv| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.90 | 1.20 | 2.19 | 0.88 | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.27 | 1.64 | 2.00 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 2.26 | 0.95 | 2.27 | 0.73 | 2.25 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Kolos Kovalivka| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.87 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 1.12 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.88 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.95 | 0.91 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Kolos Kovalivka goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11% | 9.7% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 6.7% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Dynamo Kyiv
Kolos Kovalivka
Dynamo Kyiv| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.1 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 19.8 | 21.6 | 17.9 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 9.6 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 20.4 | 25.2 | 16.3 |
| vs Weaker (30) | 10.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 19.3 | 19.4 | 19.3 |
| % over line | 62% | 62% | 62% | 26% | 29% | 23% | 35% | 38% | 31% |
| % under line | 38% | 38% | 38% | 74% | 71% | 77% | 65% | 62% | 69% |
Kolos Kovalivka| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.1 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 25.7 | 26.5 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 8.2 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 24.3 | 28.0 | 19.8 |
| vs Similar (36) | 8.0 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 26.4 | 25.4 | 27.1 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 31% | 33% | 29% | 28% | 25% | 31% | 77% | 83% | 71% |
| % under line | 69% | 67% | 71% | 72% | 75% | 69% | 23% | 17% | 29% |
Dynamo Kyiv| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.70 | 1.06 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.45 | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.17 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 1.05 | 0.63 | 1.18 | 0.55 | 0.88 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Kolos Kovalivka| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.30 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.27 | 0.36 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 73% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Dynamo Kyiv| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.50 | 1.12 | 0.31 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.82 | 0.82 | 1.20 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 1.21 | 0.32 | 1.09 | 0.18 | 1.38 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
Kolos Kovalivka| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.88 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.68 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.83 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 85.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 83.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 78.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 74.8% | 1.26 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +1.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 74.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 73.1% | 1.31 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.30 | +2.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 71.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 24/05/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/12/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 05/05/24 | H | 5-0 | |
| 28/10/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 24/05/23 | A | 0-3 | |
| 13/11/22 | H | 0-0 |
Dynamo Kyiv| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 09/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 30/07/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 23/07/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 24/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-2 |
Kolos Kovalivka| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Karpaty | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 49% |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 2.8 | 75% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 186 | 115 | 19 | 52 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 68% |
| 3 | Polessya | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 4 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 2.0 | 75% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 48% |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 56% |
| 6 | Dynamo Kyiv | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 91 | 32 | 26 | 33 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 62% |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 52% |
| 8 | Bukovyna | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Veres Rivne | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 43% |
| 10 | Kryvbas KR | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 48% |
| 11 | LNZ Cherkasy | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 3 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 1.3 | 67% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 13 | Chornomorets | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 14 | Obolon'-Brovar | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0.8 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 42% |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 16 | Kolos Kovalivka | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 49% |