Eastleigh’s recent form shows a win streak that suggests a strong attack, but they have conceded as many goals as they score, 2.0 each, against stronger opposition. Boreham Wood, meanwhile, has been on a two-game winning run, scoring 1.93 and conceding 1.6 against weaker opponents, and they are favored to win this match with a 58 % chance. The model predicts a high-scoring affair, expecting 3.8 goals on average, with the most likely total of three goals at 21 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-2 for Boreham Wood, a 9 % probability. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 21 %, 21 % and 58 % respectively. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 96.1 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.5 %, Under 6.5 at 91.0 %, Away over 0.5 goals at 90.7 %, Away +2 handicap at 90.7 %, Over 1.5 at 89.9 %, Under 5.5 cards at 85.7 % and Home under 2.5 goals at 83.2 %. Each selection is listed with its exact probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Eastleigh win
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood win
57.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Eastleigh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.83
1.56
1.94
1.21
1.71
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.43
1.86
1.53
1.93
1.31
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boreham Wood
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.63
2.20
1.67
1.87
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
5.00
0.00
5.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
2.10
1.52
2.36
1.43
1.87
1.60
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Eastleigh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.0%
Under 1.5
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.1%
Under 2.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
50.2%
Under 3.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
68.2%
No
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.2%
1-1
8.8%
1-3
7.0%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
2-1
5.6%
0-3
5.1%
0-1
5.0%
Eastleigh goals ↓
Boreham Wood goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
5.0%
6.6%
5.1%
2.9%
1
2.7%
8.8%
9.2%
7.0%
4.0%
2
2.4%
5.6%
6.4%
4.9%
2.8%
3
1.1%
2.6%
2.9%
2.3%
1.3%
4
0.4%
0.9%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Eastleigh goals (down), columns = Boreham Wood goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Eastleigh is 0.81 points worse than Boreham Wood in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Eastleigh is 0.76 goals worse than Boreham Wood in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Eastleigh is 0.49 goals worse than Boreham Wood in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Eastleigh is 16.4 percentage points worse than Boreham Wood in terms of average possession (41% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Eastleigh or Draw
42.9%
Avg Implied -
22%
21%
57%
covers Eastleigh + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh or Boreham Wood
78.7%
Avg Implied -
22%
21%
57%
covers Eastleigh + Boreham Wood
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Boreham Wood
78.3%
Avg Implied -
22%
21%
57%
covers Draw + Boreham Wood
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Eastleigh over/under 0.5
Over
75.0%
Under
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 1.5
Over
40.3%
Under
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 2.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5
Over
89.9%
Under
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5
Over
66.8%
Under
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5
Over
40.2%
Under
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 3.5
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Eastleigh, so a minus line means Eastleigh give that many goals of a start and Boreham Wood receive them. At -1, Eastleigh must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Eastleigh win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Eastleigh)
Eastleigh -2
3.3%
Draw -2
6.3%
Boreham Wood +2
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Eastleigh)
Eastleigh -1
9.5%
Draw -1
12.1%
Boreham Wood +1
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Eastleigh)
Eastleigh +1
42.9%
Draw +1
20.6%
Boreham Wood -1
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Eastleigh)
Eastleigh +2
63.5%
Draw +2
17.1%
Boreham Wood -2
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Eastleigh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.62
0.56
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.57
0.71
0.60
0.47
0.54
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boreham Wood
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.80
0.67
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
0.90
0.66
0.86
0.57
0.93
0.73
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Eastleigh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.0%
Under 0.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.2%
Under 1.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Eastleigh over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.3%
Under
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Eastleigh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.10
0.94
1.38
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.86
1.14
0.93
1.47
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boreham Wood
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.93
1.40
1.00
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
1.21
0.86
1.50
0.86
0.93
0.87
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Eastleigh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.1%
Under 0.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.6%
Under 1.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.7%
Under 2.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Eastleigh over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eastleigh over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.0%
Under
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.6%
Under
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →