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Ebbsfleet vs Fylde Result & Analysis

Date: 15/03/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
E
Ebbsfleet
Vs
31%
27%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
F
Fylde
England: National League
Referee: I Searle

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ebbsfleet win✓ Hit
30.7%
Avg Implied 32.3% · @ 2.86
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.45
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fylde win✗ Miss
42.2%
Avg Implied 40.9% · @ 2.26
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

E
Ebbsfleet

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L02L00D02L00D24L23L02L12LA·WOK18/01H·BRA25/01A·HAL01/02A·ROC08/02H·YOR15/02H·FOR18/02A·WEA22/02H·TAM01/03A·EAS04/03A·SOL08/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.732.070.671.730.802.40
vs Stronger (1)1.004.00--1.004.00
vs Similar (16)0.882.380.882.250.882.50
vs Weaker (13)0.541.540.431.140.672.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

F
Fylde

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W02L12L21W11D12L21W11D21W02LH·WEA25/01A·SOU28/01H·OLD01/02A·HAL04/02H·DAG15/02H·BOS18/02A·ALT22/02A·GAT01/03H·HAR04/03H·BRA08/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.971.561.750.642.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.712.291.331.000.253.25
vs Weaker (23)1.261.871.621.920.801.80
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ebbsfleet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.3%
@ 1.78+1.9%
Under 2.5
45.7%
@ 1.96-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.0%
Under 3.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
9.0%
0-1
7.8%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.0%
0-0
6.9%
1-0 ✓
6.3%
2-2
5.9%
Ebbsfleet goals ↓
Fylde goals →
01234
06.9%7.8%7.0%3.6%1.4%
16.3%13%9.0%4.7%1.8%
24.9%7.6%5.9%3.0%1.2%
32.1%3.3%2.5%1.3%0.5%
40.7%1.1%0.8%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ebbsfleet goals (down), columns = Fylde goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Barnet
2.22
York
2.09
Forest Green
1.80
Rochdale
1.61
Oldham
1.59
Halifax
1.52
Southend
1.48
Gateshead
1.46
Tamworth
1.39
Altrincham
1.39
Sutton
1.30
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Solihull
1.26
Woking
1.26
Aldershot
1.24
Braintree Town
1.22
Yeovil
1.22
Boston Utd
1.20
Wealdstone
1.15
Dag and Red
1.13
Maidenhead
1.13
Fylde
0.87
Ebbsfleet
0.48
Ebbsfleet is 0.39 points worse than Fylde in terms of average points per game (0.48 vs 0.87).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Barnet
2.11
York
2.07
Gateshead
1.65
Forest Green
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Altrincham
1.48
Tamworth
1.41
Oldham
1.39
Dag and Red
1.33
Solihull
1.33
Sutton
1.28
Southend
1.28
Hartlepool
1.28
Eastleigh
1.26
Maidenhead
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Boston Utd
1.17
Woking
1.13
Braintree Town
1.11
Yeovil
1.11
Halifax
1.09
Fylde
1.09
Ebbsfleet
0.83
Ebbsfleet is 0.26 goals worse than Fylde in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.09).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Barnet
0.83
Forest Green
0.91
York
0.91
Rochdale
0.96
Halifax
1.00
Oldham
1.04
Southend
1.04
Braintree Town
1.28
Woking
1.28
Yeovil
1.30
Eastleigh
1.33
Dag and Red
1.35
Altrincham
1.35
Hartlepool
1.35
Sutton
1.39
Boston Utd
1.46
Solihull
1.46
Gateshead
1.48
Tamworth
1.57
Maidenhead
1.63
Wealdstone
1.65
Aldershot
1.80
Fylde
1.85
Ebbsfleet
2.13
Ebbsfleet is 0.28 goals worse than Fylde in terms of goals conceded per game (2.13 vs 1.85).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
York
63%
Barnet
62%
Gateshead
60%
Rochdale
55%
Southend
53%
Altrincham
51%
Oldham
51%
Aldershot
51%
Woking
50%
Forest Green
50%
Solihull
50%
Yeovil
49%
Sutton
49%
Wealdstone
49%
Halifax
49%
Fylde
46%
Eastleigh
46%
Hartlepool
45%
Braintree Town
45%
Ebbsfleet
44%
Maidenhead
41%
Tamworth
40%
Ebbsfleet is 2.1 percentage points worse than Fylde in terms of average possession (44% vs 46%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

E
Ebbsfleet

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L01L00D00D00D22D13L01L11DA·WOK18/01H·BRA25/01A·HAL01/02A·ROC08/02H·YOR15/02H·FOR18/02A·WEA22/02H·TAM01/03A·EAS04/03A·SOL08/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.230.830.130.600.331.07
vs Stronger (1)0.004.00--0.004.00
vs Similar (16)0.250.750.120.500.381.00
vs Weaker (13)0.230.690.140.710.330.67
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

F
Fylde

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D11D01L12L21W01L21W01LH·WEA25/01A·SOU28/01H·OLD01/02A·HAL04/02H·DAG15/02H·BOS18/02A·ALT22/02A·GAT01/03H·HAR04/03H·BRA08/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.730.620.690.290.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.000.710.000.330.001.00
vs Weaker (23)0.610.740.770.770.400.70
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ebbsfleet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ebbsfleet over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ebbsfleet over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ebbsfleet over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

E
Ebbsfleet

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D01L00D02L00D02L10W01L01LA·WOK18/01H·BRA25/01A·HAL01/02A·ROC08/02H·YOR15/02H·FOR18/02A·WEA22/02H·TAM01/03A·EAS04/03A·SOL08/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.230.531.130.471.33
vs Stronger (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Similar (16)0.621.620.751.750.501.50
vs Weaker (13)0.310.850.290.430.331.33
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

F
Fylde

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L12L10W10W00D00D10W00D01LH·WEA25/01A·SOU28/01H·OLD01/02A·HAL04/02H·DAG15/02H·BOS18/02A·ALT22/02A·GAT01/03H·HAR04/03H·BRA08/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.230.941.060.361.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.711.571.330.670.252.25
vs Weaker (23)0.651.130.851.150.401.10
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ebbsfleet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ebbsfleet over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ebbsfleet over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ebbsfleet over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards80.1%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.578.9%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards73.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
BT (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
EBB wins
1
Draws
1
FYL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ebbsfleet vs Fylde · H/A from EBB
DateH/AGameScore
10/12/24AFylde Vs EBB2-0
06/04/24HEBB Vs Fylde2-1
21/10/23AFylde Vs EBB1-1

E
Ebbsfleet

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25ASolihull Vs EBB2-1
04/03/25AEastleigh Vs EBB2-0
01/03/25HEBB Vs Tamworth2-3
22/02/25AWealdstone Vs EBB4-2
18/02/25HEBB Vs Forest Green0-0
15/02/25HEBB Vs York0-2
08/02/25ARochdale Vs EBB0-0
01/02/25AHalifax Vs EBB2-0
25/01/25HEBB Vs Braintree Town0-1
18/01/25AWoking Vs EBB1-1

F
Fylde

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25HFYL Vs Braintree Town0-2
04/03/25HFYL Vs Hartlepool2-1
01/03/25AGateshead Vs FYL1-1
22/02/25AAltrincham Vs FYL1-2
18/02/25HFYL Vs Boston Utd1-2
15/02/25HFYL Vs Dag and Red1-1
04/02/25AHalifax Vs FYL1-2
01/02/25HFYL Vs Oldham1-2
28/01/25ASouthend Vs FYL2-0
25/01/25HFYL Vs Wealdstone2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

E
Ebbsfleet
England: National League
Recent: 0 Wins / 3 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL0.72
HomeDLLDL1.00
AwayLDLLL0.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%24%4%
AVG goals2.822.523.12
Over 1.5 %76%68%84%
Over 2.5 %54%48%60%
Over 3.5 %36%24%48%
Scored0.900.960.84
Conceded1.921.562.28
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners---
Cards3.963.884.04
F
Fylde
England: National League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWL1.06
HomeLDLWL1.35
AwayLLWWD0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%21%
AVG goals3.283.463.08
Over 1.5 %94%96%92%
Over 2.5 %66%69%62%
Over 3.5 %36%38%33%
Scored1.301.690.88
Conceded1.981.772.21
BTTS62%69%54%
Clean Sheet10%19%0%
Corners---
Cards4.204.084.33

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BarnetBarnet46102
67%
2.2
9738+59
2.9
78%
61%
35%
-
0%
4.0
61%
-
0%
4
0132.10.8
62%
2YorkYork4696
63%
2.1
9542+53
3.0
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
1
0012.10.9
63%
3Forest GreenForest Green4683
48%
1.8
6942+27
2.4
76%
43%
20%
-
0%
3.4
41%
-
0%
1
0001.50.9
50%
4RochdaleRochdale4674
46%
1.6
6944+25
2.5
67%
48%
26%
-
0%
2.8
30%
-
0%
2
1111.51.0
55%
5OldhamOldham4673
41%
1.6
6448+16
2.4
74%
43%
26%
-
0%
4.0
59%
-
0%
3
1111.41.0
51%
6HalifaxHalifax4670
41%
1.5
5046+4
2.1
59%
35%
17%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
49%
7SouthendSouthend4668
37%
1.5
5948+11
2.3
74%
43%
24%
-
0%
3.5
46%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
53%
8GatesheadGateshead4667
41%
1.5
7668+8
3.1
80%
57%
46%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
60%
9AltrinchamAltrincham4664
37%
1.4
6862+6
2.8
78%
63%
26%
-
0%
4.3
70%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
51%
10TamworthTamworth4664
37%
1.4
6572-7
3.0
87%
54%
30%
-
0%
4.8
65%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
40%
11HartlepoolHartlepool4660
30%
1.3
5962-3
2.6
70%
41%
24%
-
0%
4.2
59%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
45%
12SuttonSutton4660
33%
1.3
5964-5
2.7
74%
52%
24%
-
0%
4.6
65%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
49%
13EastleighEastleigh4659
30%
1.3
5861-3
2.6
78%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.5
65%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
46%
14SolihullSolihull4658
35%
1.3
6167-6
2.8
72%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.4
65%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
50%
15WokingWoking4658
28%
1.3
5259-7
2.4
74%
46%
24%
-
0%
4.5
70%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
50%
16AldershotAldershot4657
30%
1.2
6983-14
3.3
85%
63%
43%
-
0%
4.3
63%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
51%
17Braintree TownBraintree Town4656
33%
1.2
5159-8
2.4
63%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.4
65%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
45%
18YeovilYeovil4656
33%
1.2
5160-9
2.4
65%
50%
24%
-
0%
4.0
59%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
49%
19Boston UtdBoston Utd4655
33%
1.2
5467-13
2.6
76%
59%
28%
-
0%
4.1
54%
-
0%
1
0001.21.5
-
20WealdstoneWealdstone4653
28%
1.2
5676-20
2.9
80%
52%
33%
-
0%
3.9
61%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
49%
21
DA
Dag and Red
4652
26%
1.1
6162-1
2.7
76%
43%
24%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
22
M
Maidenhead
4652
30%
1.1
5775-18
2.9
76%
50%
39%
-
0%
3.3
43%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
41%
23
F
Fylde
4640
24%
0.9
5085-35
2.9
83%
57%
26%
-
0%
4.2
59%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
46%
24
E
Ebbsfleet
4622
7%
0.5
3898-60
3.0
76%
54%
43%
-
0%
3.8
52%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
44%
England: National League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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