The match sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring a home win but offering a balanced spread of 40% for Edinburgh City, 30% for a draw and 30% for Annan Athletic. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring game, and the single most likely score is 1-1, a 14.4% chance. Edinburgh City, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Annan Athletic, on the road, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 82.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 70.7%, Under 3.5 at 78.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 77.5% and Over 2.5 cards at 72.5%. Edinburgh City’s recent form of DWWDL and a 1-1 draw with Forfar, coupled with Annan Athletic’s WLLWL and a 2-0 win over Dumbarton, add intrigue to an evenly poised contest.
Results analysis
Edinburgh City, after a draw, carried momentum into the match while Annan Athletic entered on a win. The final score was 4-0, confirming a Home win. The model’s favourite was Home win at 40%, and the call was correct. The suggested picks were: Under 5.5 cards at 82.1% - hit; Under 3.5 at 78.7% - missed; Over 19.5 fouls at 77.5% - missed; Over 2.5 cards at 72.5% - missed; Under 11.5 corners at 70.7% - hit. The game delivered a decisive victory for the hosts, leaving the model’s selection validated.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Edinburgh City win✓ Hit
39.7%
Avg Implied 49.2% · @ 1.86
Edge
-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.65
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.56
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.23
1.50
0.71
1.69
1.69
vs Stronger (21)
1.86
1.24
1.80
0.50
1.91
1.91
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.14
0.67
1.00
1.50
1.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.13
2.38
1.06
1.50
1.21
vs Stronger (20)
2.25
0.95
2.80
0.80
1.70
1.10
vs Similar (7)
1.71
1.57
1.80
1.60
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.6%
Under 1.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.0%
@ 1.73-11.7%
Under 2.5
58.0%
@ 2.01+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.3%
Under 3.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
10.7%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.5%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.9%
5.5%
2.0%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
7.0%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.7%
8.4%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.3%
3.6%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Cove Rangers
2.43
Edinburgh City
2.04
Elgin
1.54
Cowdenbeath
1.52
Queens Park
1.43
Stirling
1.29
Annan Athletic
1.15
Stenhousemuir
1.04
Albion Rvs
0.92
Brechin
0.63
Edinburgh City is 0.89 points better than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (2.04 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cove Rangers
2.71
Edinburgh City
1.81
Elgin
1.71
Albion Rvs
1.42
Cowdenbeath
1.37
Queens Park
1.32
Annan Athletic
1.22
Stirling
1.21
Brechin
1.15
Stenhousemuir
1.14
Edinburgh City is 0.59 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Edinburgh City
1.04
Elgin
1.21
Cove Rangers
1.21
Queens Park
1.25
Stirling
1.25
Cowdenbeath
1.30
Stenhousemuir
1.71
Albion Rvs
1.96
Annan Athletic
2.00
Brechin
2.22
Edinburgh City is 0.96 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.04 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Edinburgh City
For 5.1 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 10.1 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 6.3 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 12.7 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.9
9.3
3.9
3.7
4.1
24.2
25.0
23.5
vs Stronger (31)
8.5
7.8
8.9
4.2
3.7
4.6
25.3
26.5
24.5
vs Similar (13)
10.1
9.9
10.3
3.2
3.3
3.0
23.6
24.0
23.2
vs Weaker (6)
10.3
10.8
9.5
4.0
4.5
3.0
19.7
22.0
15.0
% over line
48%
50%
46%
64%
58%
69%
72%
83%
62%
% under line
52%
50%
54%
36%
42%
31%
28%
17%
38%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.3
10.6
3.7
4.0
3.5
23.3
24.1
22.4
vs Stronger (33)
10.1
9.6
10.5
3.7
3.8
3.5
23.5
24.2
22.9
vs Similar (12)
10.7
10.0
11.6
3.8
4.3
3.2
22.7
23.6
21.4
vs Weaker (5)
7.2
6.3
8.5
3.8
4.0
3.5
23.4
25.0
21.0
% over line
54%
42%
67%
48%
54%
42%
74%
81%
67%
% under line
46%
58%
33%
52%
46%
58%
26%
19%
33%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
10.7
Stirling
10.4
Elgin
10.1
Albion Rvs
10.0
Brechin
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.9
Queens Park
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Cowdenbeath
9.2
Edinburgh City
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
3.9
Cowdenbeath
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.7
Brechin
3.6
Stenhousemuir
3.5
Queens Park
3.5
Cove Rangers
3.4
Stirling
3.3
Elgin
3.1
Albion Rvs
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cove Rangers
26.0
Edinburgh City
24.2
Annan Athletic
23.3
Cowdenbeath
23.1
Brechin
22.3
Stirling
21.9
Albion Rvs
21.3
Elgin
21.3
Stenhousemuir
19.9
Queens Park
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.1%
Under 9.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.9%
Under 3.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
62.7%
Under 21.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.79
0.07
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (21)
1.00
0.48
1.00
0.10
1.00
0.82
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.29
0.33
0.00
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.88
0.31
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (20)
0.75
0.30
1.10
0.10
0.40
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.71
0.60
0.60
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
0.71
0.64
0.94
1.00
vs Stronger (21)
0.86
0.76
0.80
0.40
0.91
1.09
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.86
0.33
1.00
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.73
1.50
0.75
1.14
0.71
vs Stronger (20)
1.50
0.65
1.70
0.70
1.30
0.60
vs Similar (7)
1.14
0.86
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Cove Rangers
Elgin
Cowdenbeath
Queens Park
Stirling
Stenhousemuir
Brechin