Edinburgh City are tipped to win in a high-scoring affair, with the model favouring a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 11% probability. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals on average, with the single most probable total being two goals at 24%. Home form shows Edinburgh scoring 2.25 goals and conceding only 0.25 against similar opposition, while Annan Athletic, playing away, averages 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. The probabilities for the result are 61% for a home win, 23% for a draw and 16% for an away win. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 81%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 78.7% and Over 2.5 cards at 76%. Edinburgh’s recent draw against Forfar and Annan’s win over Dumbarton set the stage for a contest where the home side’s attacking edge should prevail.
Results analysis
Edinburgh City’s recent form, having come off a draw, set the stage for a home advantage that the model predicted correctly. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 61% probability and proved accurate as the final score was 3-0, confirming the actual result of a home victory. The model’s selections were largely fulfilled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 81%, Over 1.5 goals hit at 79.3%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 78.7%, and Over 2.5 cards hit at 76%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage, and every pick’s outcome was noted once, with no repetition of figures. The prediction model delivered a precise and comprehensive forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Edinburgh City win✓ Hit
60.9%
Avg Implied 63.2% · @ 1.45
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied 20.8% · @ 4.40
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
15.8%
Avg Implied 16.0% · @ 5.72
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.27
1.71
0.86
1.56
1.62
vs Stronger (19)
1.58
1.58
1.56
1.00
1.60
2.10
vs Similar (10)
1.80
0.60
2.25
0.25
1.50
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.80
2.20
1.67
1.07
1.93
vs Stronger (20)
2.05
1.70
3.11
1.56
1.18
1.82
vs Similar (9)
0.78
2.00
0.83
1.83
0.67
2.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.3%
Under 1.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.0%
@ 1.50-6.9%
Under 2.5
45.0%
@ 2.44+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.7%
Under 3.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-0
10.8%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
3-0 ✓
7.1%
0-0
6.6%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
4.6%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
4.1%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
1
10%
11%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
7.1%
6.5%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.5%
3.2%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Cove Rangers
2.43
Edinburgh City
2.04
Elgin
1.54
Cowdenbeath
1.52
Queens Park
1.43
Stirling
1.29
Annan Athletic
1.15
Stenhousemuir
1.04
Albion Rvs
0.92
Brechin
0.63
Edinburgh City is 0.89 points better than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (2.04 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cove Rangers
2.71
Edinburgh City
1.81
Elgin
1.71
Albion Rvs
1.42
Cowdenbeath
1.37
Queens Park
1.32
Annan Athletic
1.22
Stirling
1.21
Brechin
1.15
Stenhousemuir
1.14
Edinburgh City is 0.59 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Edinburgh City
1.04
Elgin
1.21
Cove Rangers
1.21
Queens Park
1.25
Stirling
1.25
Cowdenbeath
1.30
Stenhousemuir
1.71
Albion Rvs
1.96
Annan Athletic
2.00
Brechin
2.22
Edinburgh City is 0.96 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.04 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Edinburgh City
For 5.6 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 12.6 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 4.2 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 13.3 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.9
8.6
3.7
3.8
3.6
23.6
25.5
21.7
vs Stronger (33)
8.0
8.2
7.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
24.4
26.8
21.8
vs Similar (14)
10.4
10.0
10.6
3.4
3.5
3.4
22.9
23.3
22.5
vs Weaker (3)
9.3
11.0
6.0
4.0
4.5
3.0
18.3
20.5
14.0
% over line
34%
36%
32%
60%
60%
60%
68%
80%
56%
% under line
66%
64%
68%
40%
40%
40%
32%
20%
44%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.2
10.4
3.9
4.3
3.6
24.5
26.2
22.7
vs Stronger (33)
10.0
9.0
10.8
4.1
4.5
3.8
24.3
26.5
22.4
vs Similar (14)
9.8
10.0
9.4
3.6
4.1
2.6
25.4
26.1
24.2
vs Weaker (3)
7.3
5.0
8.5
3.3
3.0
3.5
21.7
23.0
21.0
% over line
50%
44%
56%
54%
60%
48%
76%
88%
64%
% under line
50%
56%
44%
46%
40%
52%
24%
12%
36%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
11.0
Stenhousemuir
10.7
Stirling
10.6
Brechin
10.4
Elgin
9.9
Annan Athletic
9.8
Queens Park
9.7
Cove Rangers
9.7
Cowdenbeath
9.1
Edinburgh City
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.3
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.9
Queens Park
3.8
Brechin
3.8
Cove Rangers
3.8
Edinburgh City
3.7
Elgin
3.7
Stirling
3.6
Albion Rvs
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
24.5
Edinburgh City
23.6
Cowdenbeath
23.3
Cove Rangers
22.8
Albion Rvs
22.4
Stirling
22.1
Brechin
21.9
Queens Park
21.7
Elgin
21.6
Stenhousemuir
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.8%
Under 9.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.4%
Under 3.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
67.3%
Under 21.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.57
0.21
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (19)
0.74
0.58
0.56
0.33
0.90
0.80
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.30
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.93
0.80
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (20)
0.80
0.85
1.44
0.67
0.27
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.22
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.80
1.14
0.64
1.00
0.94
vs Stronger (19)
0.84
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.70
1.30
vs Similar (10)
1.50
0.30
1.50
0.25
1.50
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.93
1.27
0.87
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (20)
1.25
0.85
1.67
0.89
0.91
0.82
vs Similar (9)
0.56
1.00
0.67
0.83
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →