Edinburgh City are the clear favourites, with a 51% chance of victory, a 27% draw probability and a 21% chance for Annan Athletic to win. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals, with the most likely total being two, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13% chance. Edinburgh City, playing at home against a side of similar strength, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Annan Athletic, on the road, average 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 80.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 75.4%, Under 3.5 at 74.3% and Over 1.5 at 73.8%. Edinburgh City’s recent form shows a draw after a DWWDL run, while Annan Athletic come off a win, 2-0 over Dumbarton. The predicted outcome remains a home win.
Results analysis
Edinburgh City’s recent draw streak was halted as the match finished 1-1, a result that surprised many. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was given a 51% probability, yet the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections all hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 80.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 75.4%, Under 3.5 at 74.3%, and Over 1.5 at 73.8%. Edinburgh City, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, had an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Annan Athletic, away, averaged 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded. The game’s 1-1 scoreline matched the most likely total of two goals, but the draw was not the expected outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Edinburgh City win✗ Miss
51.4%
Avg Implied 65.0% · @ 1.42
Edge
-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.3%
Avg Implied 20.7% · @ 4.46
Edge
+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied 14.3% · @ 6.46
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.07
1.73
1.00
2.07
1.13
vs Stronger (20)
2.00
1.15
1.80
0.90
2.20
1.40
vs Similar (9)
1.89
0.89
2.00
1.25
1.80
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.80
1.44
1.94
0.79
1.64
vs Stronger (19)
1.42
1.63
1.82
1.64
0.88
1.62
vs Similar (9)
0.67
2.22
0.50
3.00
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.4%
@ 1.67-8.8%
Under 2.5
52.6%
@ 2.14+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.0%
1-0
11.2%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.8%
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.3%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
6.2%
3.5%
1.1%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.7%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.9%
9.5%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.3%
5.1%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Queens Park
2.45
Stranraer
1.73
Edinburgh City
1.73
Elgin
1.73
Stirling
1.64
Stenhousemuir
1.18
Albion Rvs
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.00
Cowdenbeath
0.95
Brechin
0.45
Edinburgh City is 0.73 points better than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.73 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Queens Park
1.95
Edinburgh City
1.82
Elgin
1.77
Stranraer
1.64
Stirling
1.45
Annan Athletic
1.14
Stenhousemuir
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.14
Cowdenbeath
0.68
Brechin
0.59
Edinburgh City is 0.68 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Queens Park
0.59
Stirling
1.00
Stranraer
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.23
Edinburgh City
1.23
Elgin
1.27
Cowdenbeath
1.45
Stenhousemuir
1.59
Albion Rvs
1.73
Brechin
2.09
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.23).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Edinburgh City
For 4.8 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 13.4 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 3.8 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 13.4 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.8
9.0
3.9
4.1
3.6
23.4
25.2
21.6
vs Stronger (33)
8.8
9.1
8.6
3.7
3.7
3.6
24.1
26.7
21.5
vs Similar (15)
8.9
7.9
9.9
3.9
4.3
3.6
22.5
23.3
21.8
vs Weaker (2)
9.0
9.0
-
6.5
6.5
-
19.5
19.5
-
% over line
31%
32%
29%
60%
64%
56%
63%
72%
54%
% under line
69%
68%
71%
40%
36%
44%
37%
28%
46%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.5
10.0
3.7
4.0
3.3
24.9
27.4
22.5
vs Stronger (33)
9.9
8.9
10.8
3.7
4.1
3.3
25.0
28.1
22.1
vs Similar (14)
9.4
10.0
8.7
3.6
4.0
3.2
24.4
25.6
22.8
vs Weaker (3)
10.0
14.0
8.0
3.7
4.0
3.5
26.3
29.0
25.0
% over line
50%
48%
52%
52%
56%
48%
72%
84%
60%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
48%
44%
52%
28%
16%
40%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.8
Albion Rvs
10.6
Brechin
10.6
Stenhousemuir
10.1
Elgin
10.0
Queens Park
10.0
Cowdenbeath
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.8
Stranraer
9.7
Edinburgh City
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.4
Elgin
4.1
Stenhousemuir
4.1
Stirling
3.9
Edinburgh City
3.9
Queens Park
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.7
Brechin
3.4
Albion Rvs
3.4
Stranraer
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
24.9
Cowdenbeath
23.9
Edinburgh City
23.4
Stirling
22.8
Queens Park
22.6
Albion Rvs
22.6
Elgin
21.9
Stenhousemuir
21.7
Stranraer
21.5
Brechin
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.7%
Under 9.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.6%
Under 3.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.0%
Under 21.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.73
0.53
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (20)
0.90
0.40
0.90
0.40
0.90
0.40
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.44
0.50
0.75
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.69
0.88
0.29
0.86
vs Stronger (19)
0.63
0.79
0.91
0.64
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.22
1.11
0.00
1.50
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.63
1.00
0.47
1.33
0.80
vs Stronger (20)
1.10
0.75
0.90
0.50
1.30
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.44
0.44
1.50
0.50
1.40
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.75
1.06
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (19)
0.79
0.84
0.91
1.00
0.62
0.62
vs Similar (9)
0.44
1.11
0.50
1.50
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Queens Park
Elgin
Stranraer
Stirling
Stenhousemuir
Cowdenbeath
Brechin