The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance for Forfar to come out on top, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of Edinburgh City taking the victory. The expected total of goals is three, but the most likely total is two, with a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12% chance. Edinburgh City, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Forfar on the road averages 1.83 scored and 1.17 conceded. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5 goals at an 80.5% probability. The recent form shows both sides coming off a 1-1 draw, with Edinburgh City’s last five results DWWDL and Forfar’s last five DLWDW. This match is expected to be tightly contested, with Forfar slightly ahead in the odds.
Results analysis
Edinburgh City’s recent run of DWWDL has left them coming off a draw, while Forfar’s DLWDW streak also ends in a 1-1 stalemate. The match finished 0-1, an away win that matched the model’s favourite and its 50% probability, confirming the call. The total of one goal was far below the model’s expected 3.0 and the most likely 2-goal total, underscoring the low-scoring nature of the game. The only suggested pick, Over 1.5 with an 80.5% chance, missed as the single goal fell short. Overall, the outcome aligned with the model’s prediction, but the goal tally was markedly lower than anticipated.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Edinburgh City win✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar win✓ Hit
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.26
1.10
1.50
0.89
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.55
1.00
1.83
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (6)
1.33
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
26% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.47
2.13
1.47
1.73
1.47
vs Stronger (18)
1.72
1.67
1.70
1.50
1.75
1.88
vs Similar (10)
2.20
1.10
2.75
1.00
1.83
1.17
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
4.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.7%
Under 2.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.6%
0-1 ✓
8.1%
0-2
8.1%
2-1
6.5%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
5.8%
1-3
5.7%
Edinburgh City goals ↓
Forfar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
8.1%
8.1%
4.7%
2.1%
1
5.1%
12%
9.6%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.7%
6.5%
5.8%
3.4%
1.5%
3
1.5%
2.6%
2.3%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Edinburgh City goals (down), columns = Forfar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arbroath
1.83
Forfar
1.78
Annan Athletic
1.61
Montrose
1.44
Elgin
1.42
Stirling
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Berwick
1.11
Clyde
1.06
Cowdenbeath
0.97
Edinburgh City is 0.58 points worse than Forfar in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Forfar
1.92
Elgin
1.86
Arbroath
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.69
Berwick
1.39
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Montrose
1.22
Cowdenbeath
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.06
Edinburgh City is 0.86 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arbroath
1.00
Edinburgh City
1.25
Elgin
1.31
Forfar
1.36
Montrose
1.47
Cowdenbeath
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Stirling
1.64
Clyde
1.78
Berwick
1.81
Edinburgh City is 0.11 goals better than Forfar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Edinburgh City
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Forfar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (33)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.32
0.63
0.30
0.70
0.33
0.56
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.82
0.17
0.83
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
58% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
0.80
0.93
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (18)
0.78
0.89
0.60
0.90
1.00
0.88
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.70
1.25
0.75
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.68
0.63
0.80
0.80
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
0.73
0.83
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.33
0.53
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (18)
0.94
0.78
1.10
0.60
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.30
0.40
1.50
0.25
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (15)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Forfar have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (5)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Forfar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (7)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Edinburgh City and Forfar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arbroath
Annan Athletic
Montrose
Elgin
Stirling
Clyde
Cowdenbeath