Barcelona is heavily favoured to win this match, with a significant recent-form storyline emerging. Elche is coming off a draw against Girona, while Barcelona is looking to bounce back from a defeat to Valencia. This match is expected to be a low-scoring, closely contested affair, with an average of 2.8 goals expected.
The most likely result is a 1-1 draw, with a 25% probability. Elche has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.43 goals and conceding 1.86, particularly against stronger opponents. Barcelona, on the other hand, has been slightly more potent on the road, scoring 1.93 goals and conceding 1.2 against weaker opponents.
The model predicts an away win, with a 57% probability of Barcelona emerging victorious. The model's selections include a draw or away win (78.8%), over 1.5 goals (78.1%), home or away (75.6%), over 21.5 fouls (75.0%), and over 3.5 cards (71.3%). Elche has a 19% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and a 57% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Barcelona secured a 5-0 away victory, extending their winning run and confirming the favoured outcome. The pre-match favourite, “Away win,” had a 57 % probability, and the result matched the model’s call. Every suggested selection hit the mark: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1 %, Under 7.5 at 98.8 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.2 %, Under 6.5 at 96.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.0 %, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.4 %, and Away +2 handicap at 91.5 %. The match delivered a clean sheet for Barcelona, while Elche’s recent form had seen them lose their last game 0-5. The model’s comprehensive set of selections proved accurate across the board.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elche winâś— Miss
18.8%
Avg Implied 11.9% · @ 8.00
Edge
+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
9.00
10Bet
8.80
Pinnacle
8.52
Unibet
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Drawâś— Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 17.6% · @ 5.42
Edge
+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.85
1xBet
5.68
Unibet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
Superbet
5.60
Barcelona winâś“ Hit
56.8%
Avg Implied 70.5% · @ 1.35
Edge
-13.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Elche
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.57
1.77
1.23
1.00
1.82
vs Stronger (8)
1.38
2.62
1.75
2.50
1.00
2.75
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.19
1.78
0.67
1.00
1.58
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.00
3.07
0.71
1.62
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.33
1.67
0.67
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
2.50
0.92
3.45
0.73
1.69
1.08
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Elche) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.4%
@ 1.13-3.8%
Under 1.5
20.6%
@ 5.62+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Under
BetVictor
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.75
888Sport
5.75
Superbet
5.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.1%
@ 1.45-9.7%
Under 2.5
44.9%
@ 2.68+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Under
Betano
2.77
Pinnacle
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.70
888Sport
2.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.8%
@ 2.17-11.0%
Under 3.5
67.2%
@ 1.70+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.25
SBO
2.23
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.72
SBO
1.71
Superbet
1.70
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.9%
@ 1.71+0.5%
No
45.1%
@ 2.04-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.72
No
Betano
2.12
888Sport
2.10
William Hil
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%@ 9.91+7.0%
1-2
9.9%@ 8.19+4.3%
0-2
9.9%@ 7.56+3.8%
0-1
9.4%@ 8.84+4.2%
0-0
6.6%@ 19.36+4.3%
1-3
6.2%@ 9.71+1.5%
0-3
6.2%@ 9.06+1.1%
2-1
5.3%@ 20.01+3.0%
Elche goals ↓
Barcelona goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
9.4%
9.9%
6.2%
2.9%
1
4.6%
12%
9.9%
6.2%
2.9%
2
2.8%
5.3%
5.0%
3.1%
1.5%
3
0.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Elche goals (down), columns = Barcelona goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Elche is 1.34 points worse than Barcelona in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 2.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Elche is 1.21 goals worse than Barcelona in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Elche is 0.55 goals worse than Barcelona in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Elche is 11.1 percentage points worse than Barcelona in terms of average possession (58% vs 69%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Elche or Drawâś— Miss
45.6%
Avg Implied 30.2% · @ 3.15
Edge
+15.5%
19%
24%
57%
covers Elche + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.20
Elche or Barcelonaâś“ Hit
75.6%
Avg Implied 82.7% · @ 1.15
Edge
-7.1%
19%
24%
57%
covers Elche + Barcelona
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Draw or Barcelonaâś“ Hit
78.8%
Avg Implied 87.1% · @ 1.09
Edge
-8.3%
19%
24%
57%
covers Draw + Barcelona
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Elche over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
67.5%
@ 1.58+8.6%
Under
32.5%
@ 2.27-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.64
Unibet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Under
Bet365
2.38
Betano
2.35
888Sport
2.30
Pinnacle
2.28
Superbet
2.27
Elche over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.0%
@ 3.90+7.0%
Under
69.0%
@ 1.23-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.17
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
BetVictor
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Elche over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 10.69+1.7%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.03-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
12.00
Marathonbet
11.50
1xBet
11.50
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.01
Elche over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 26.50-0.9%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
33.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Barcelona over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.0%
@ 1.05-4.3%
Under
15.0%
@ 8.74+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Under
Bet365
10.00
888Sport
9.50
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.70
Superbet
8.40
Barcelona over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
56.5%
@ 1.34-13.2%
Under
43.5%
@ 3.08+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
3.31
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.13
Betano
3.05
Unibet
3.05
Barcelona over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
29.6%
@ 2.08-15.5%
Under
70.4%
@ 1.71+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Pinnacle
2.11
Betfair
2.10
888Sport
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Barcelona over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
12.5%
@ 3.75-12.3%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.24+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.92
888Sport
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Elche, so a minus line means Elche give that many goals of a start and Barcelona receive them. At -1, Elche must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Elche win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Elche)Actual: Barcelona
Elche -2
2.5%
@ 52.67+0.7%
Draw -2
5.9%
@ 21.67+1.5%
Barcelona +2
91.5%
@ 1.02-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
67.00
Superbet
50.00
Bet365
41.00
Draw
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
21.00
Betfair
21.00
Away
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Handicap -1 (Elche)Actual: Barcelona
Elche -1
8.5%
@ 15.23+2.6%
Draw -1
12.8%
@ 8.45+2.1%
Barcelona +1
78.8%
@ 1.08-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Betfair
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Unibet
15.00
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.70
10Bet
8.50
Away
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Handicap +1 (Elche)Actual: Barcelona
Elche +1
45.6%
@ 3.17+17.2%
Draw +1
22.3%
@ 3.84-1.2%
Barcelona -1
32.1%
@ 1.88-15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
Unibet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Draw
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Away
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Handicap +2 (Elche)Actual: Barcelona
Elche +2
67.9%
@ 1.85+18.8%
Draw +2
16.9%
@ 4.13-5.0%
Barcelona -2
15.2%
@ 3.12-13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Draw
Marathonbet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
3.90
Away
Betfair
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Superbet
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.05
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Elche
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.69
0.54
0.47
0.65
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.50
1.00
1.50
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.29
0.56
0.11
0.58
0.42
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.43
0.36
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.17
1.33
0.33
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
0.92
0.38
1.45
0.36
0.46
0.38
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Elche) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.7%
@ 1.23-5.4%
Under 0.5
29.3%
@ 3.90+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Under
Superbet
4.15
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.1%
@ 2.13-7.2%
Under 1.5
62.9%
@ 1.69+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.19
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
2.16
Under
Superbet
1.74
William Hil
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
SBO
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 4.62-5.3%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.18+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Under
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Elche over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.3%
@ 2.83+2.4%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.39-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.10
1xBet
2.90
10Bet
2.88
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Under
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Elche over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 10.00-1.8%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.04+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.50
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Elche over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 30.00-2.3%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Barcelona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
58.0%
@ 1.41-8.4%
Under
42.0%
@ 2.77+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
10Bet
2.88
Unibet
2.75
Superbet
2.72
1xBet
2.70
Barcelona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
24.2%
@ 2.95-7.3%
Under
75.8%
@ 1.36+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
Unibet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.97
1xBet
2.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Barcelona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 7.12-7.0%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.06+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
Unibet
7.00
Betano
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Elche
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
1.08
0.69
0.53
1.18
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.12
0.75
1.00
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.90
1.22
0.56
0.42
1.17
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.47
1.64
0.36
1.06
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.58
0.54
2.00
0.36
1.23
0.69
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Elche) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.6%
@ 1.14-2.0%
Under 0.5
19.4%
@ 5.42+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.70
Marathonbet
5.70
Superbet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.9%
@ 1.69-6.9%
Under 1.5
51.1%
@ 2.13+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.75
William Hil
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Under
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.19
Superbet
2.15
Unibet
2.10
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
21.7%
@ 3.11-8.4%
Under 2.5
78.3%
@ 1.34+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.15
1xBet
3.02
Under
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
888Sport
1.33
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Elche over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.1%
@ 2.27+3.2%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.57-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.32
1xBet
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.54
Elche over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 7.55-1.1%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.05+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
7.40
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Elche over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 19.50-2.5%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Barcelona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
67.2%
@ 1.27-6.1%
Under
32.8%
@ 3.48+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Under
Betano
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Barcelona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
28.4%
@ 2.23-13.1%
Under
71.6%
@ 1.59+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.22
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
Superbet
1.56
Barcelona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
10.4%
@ 4.83-8.7%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.15+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
âś“ Hit
Under 7.5
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.2%
âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
âś“ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.9%
âś“ Hit
Under 6.5
96.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.01
+4.2%
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
+7.0%
âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+1.8%
âś“ Hit
Away +2 handicap
91.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-2.3%
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5
91.4%
1.10
Betano
1.13
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+5.7%
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
89.6%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
-
-
+8.7%
âś— Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
89.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.01
-1.7%
âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.9%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
+1.1%
âś“ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
87.5%
1.24
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+12.3%
âś— Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.9%
1.28
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
-
+14.6%
âś— Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.18
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+5.3%
âś“ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
85.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
-4.3%
âś“ Hit
Under 4.5
81.2%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
+7.7%
âś— Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.14
William Hil
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
-2.0%
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
79.4%
1.13
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-3.8%
âś“ Hit
Draw or Away
78.8%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
-8.3%
âś“ Hit
Away +1 handicap
78.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-4.6%
âś“ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.34
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
888Sport
1.33
+8.4%
âś— Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
76.5%
1.46
1xBet
1.46
-
-
-
-
+14.0%
âś“ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
75.8%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.35
+7.3%
âś— Miss
Home or Away
75.6%
1.15
1xBet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
-7.1%
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.9%
1.30
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.27
+3.4%
âś“ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.5%
1.64
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
+15.7%
âś— Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
71.6%
1.59
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
Superbet
1.56
-
+13.1%
âś— Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.7%
1.23
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
-5.4%
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
70.4%
1.71
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.71
+15.5%
âś— Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Elche's squad is €1202m less valuable than Barcelona's (€79m vs €1282m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Elche's attack is €556m less valuable than Barcelona's (€34m vs €590m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Elche's midfield is €311m less valuable than Barcelona's (€12m vs €324m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Elche's defence is €335m less valuable than Barcelona's (€33m vs €368m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Malaga